成文日期：20250919 报告周期:日度 研究品种:铁矿 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832；投资咨询证书号：Z0022799) 铁矿石期货日报 | | | | | 商品名称 合约名称开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 前结算价结算价涨跌涨跌1 | | | | | | 成交量 | | 持合量 持合量变化 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿石 | i2510 | 822.5 826.5 816.5 | | | 820 | 820 | 820.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 5,067 | 8,258 | -2,246 | 41,595.56 | | 铁矿石 | i2511 | 816.5 | 822.5 | 811 | 814.5 | 815.5 | 814.5 | -1 | -1 | 11,662 | 70,957 | 301 | 95,034.34 | | 铁矿石 | i2512 | 813 | 816.5 | 805 | 808. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The economic data in August generally continued to decline and fell short of expectations, with economic growth continuing to slow down. The overall domestic demand economic data in August continued to slow down, with investment continuing to slow down and slightly lower than market expectations, consumption growth slightly declining and lower than market expectations, and industrial production slowing down in the short term. The short - term investment side continued to slow down, and the domestic commodity demand as a whole slowed down and was lower than market expectations. The supply side also slowed down due to factors such as domestic demand slowdown and anti - involution. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed a state of weak demand and relatively abundant supply, which weakened the support for the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities. The data announced this time continued to slow down and were lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the promotion of the "anti - involution" work, it was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the higher - than - expected US tariffs might lead to a slowdown in global growth expectations, but the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut supported the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Production - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises nationwide was 5.2%, lower than the expected 5.7% and the previous value of 5.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Mainly due to strong external demand, but also affected by domestic anti - involution and environmental protection production restrictions, the operating rate of industrial enterprises declined, and the industrial production growth rate decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. By major categories, in August, the added value of the mining industry increased by 5.1% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 5.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.4%. In the second half of the year, as the US replenishment demand gradually weakened, the overall industrial production growth rate in China might decline but was expected to remain at a relatively high level [3][4]. Domestic Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.9% and the previous value of 3.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly due to the slowdown in the subsidy intensity of the consumer goods trade - in policy. Currently, the effect of the consumer goods trade - in policy has weakened, and the retail sales of commodities in categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, furniture, automobiles, and sports and entertainment products by units above the designated size have slowed down, but service consumption has rebounded. In the later stage, with the continuous implementation and effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus policies and the recovery of residents' wealth effect, domestic consumption will pick up [4]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed - asset investment was 0.4%, far lower than the expected 1.4% and a significant drop of 1.1% from the previous value of 1.6%. Among them, the growth rate of manufacturing investment continued to decline, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in the short term, and real estate investment remained weak [4]. Real Estate - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 19.9%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing sales area was - 11%, with the decline expanding by 2.6 percentage points from the previous value, and the year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales was - 14.8%, with the decline expanding by 0.7 percentage points from the previous value. This was mainly due to the high - base effect formed by the "5.17 real estate new policy" last year and the weakening of the effect of real estate policy stimulus. The real estate market continued to recover slowly, and the real estate prosperity remained low and had slowed down for five consecutive months. However, with the slowdown of the real estate market, more incremental real estate policies were expected to be introduced [4]. Infrastructure Investment - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 5.9%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points from the previous value of - 5.1%. Although the issuance speed of special bonds accelerated, due to the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather and poor fund arrival, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline [4]. Manufacturing Investment - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 1.3%, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point from the previous value of - 0.3%. It slowed down significantly due to the high base effect last year and domestic anti - involution. Currently, high - tech industries maintained a high - growth level, and the large - scale equipment renewal policy continued to take effect, which provided strong support for manufacturing investment. In the future, on the one hand, with the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the exit of backward production capacity, manufacturing enterprise profits were expected to gradually bottom out and recover, and the willingness of enterprises to make capital expenditures might increase; on the other hand, the possible slowdown of the US replenishment demand in the second half of the year would weaken the short - term driving force for manufacturing investment [5]. Impact on Bulk Commodities - In the short term, the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market was negatively affected as the data continued to slow down and were lower than market expectations. In the medium and long term, with the implementation of more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, as well as the promotion of the "anti - involution" work, it was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the higher - than - expected US tariffs might lead to a slowdown in global growth expectations, but the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut supported the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy [3][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 3, 2025, the A - share market showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets significantly decreased by 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Various futures products presented different price trends and influencing factors, including supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international market conditions [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 3, the A - share market's three major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.00, down 0.65%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2899.37, up 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.3641 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index continued to adjust on September 3, closing at 4459.83, a decrease of 30.62 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 3, the coke weighted index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1597.7, a decrease of 9.6 from the previous day [2]. - On September 3, the coking coal weighted index was weak, closing at 1104.7 yuan, a decrease of 13.9 from the previous day [3]. - For coke, the fifth round of price increase was implemented, but steel mills' high profitability led to weak production - reduction willingness. The daily average production of long - process hot metal decreased slightly to 240.71 million tons last week. The demand support for coke increased slightly. The trading logic switched to the dual - wheel drive of macro - industrial policies and fundamentals [4]. - For coking coal, the supply from the Sino - Mongolian border decreased slightly, port inventories decreased, and the overall supply narrowed. The demand support remained, and the inventory accumulation situation improved [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as sufficient rainfall in India and Thailand and Brazilian sugar mills' preference for sugar production, the US sugar price oscillated downward on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated downward on Wednesday under the influence of the decline in US sugar prices and spot price cuts. As of the end of August, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.7563 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 299,700 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 89.04%, a year - on - year increase of 0.62 percentage points [4]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday and closed slightly lower due to the decline in the stock market. Affected by factors such as the decline in crude oil prices and the significant decline in global natural rubber consumption in July predicted by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, it oscillated downward at night. In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, an increase of 7.9% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 3, CBOT soybean futures were weak. As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. Domestically, on September 3, soybean meal futures oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The high - capacity utilization rate of imported soybeans led to an increase in soybean meal inventory to 1.063 million tons. The price oscillated, and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports should be focused on [6]. Live Pigs - On September 3, live pig futures prices showed a weak oscillation. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13,550 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. In September, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises increased month - on - month, but the terminal demand showed signs of slow recovery. In the medium - to - long - term, the inventory of fertile sows in July was 40.42 million, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter was large. In the short - term, live pigs may oscillate weakly in a range [7]. Palm Oil - On September 3, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick with an upper shadow, at 9468 yuan, down 0.57% from the previous day. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 was 2.2 million tons, an increase of 4.06% from July; production was 1.86 million tons, an increase of 2.5% from July; exports were 1.45 million tons, an increase of 10.7% from July [7]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper was actively traded. After opening, the price oscillated around the previous day's settlement price. In the morning, the bulls pushed the price up, but after reaching the daily high, the bears forced the price down. It was affected by factors such as the rise of precious metals and the possible Fed rate cut in September. The market was still cautious [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,965 yuan/ton. On September 3, the base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 135 lots compared to the previous day [8]. Logs - On September 3, the 2511 log contract opened at 810.5, with a low of 796.5, a high of 810.5, and closed at 798.5, with an increase of 2557 lots in positions. The futures price broke below the 60 - day moving average of 812, and the pressure at the 800 mark should be noted. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in foreign - market quotes drove up the domestic futures price [8][9]. Iron Ore - On September 3, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated and closed up 0.71%, at 777 yuan. The global iron ore shipment returned to the highest level of the year, the arrival volume increased month - on - month, and the hot - metal production decreased slightly. The short - term price was in an oscillating trend [10]. Asphalt - On September 3, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated and closed down 0.36%, at 3551 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and the shipment volume increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak - demand season, the demand in both southern and northern markets is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will oscillate [10]. Steel - On September 3, rb2601 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The short - term demand improvement was limited, the trading of low - price resources was acceptable, but that of high - price resources was poor. The demand in the peak season of September remains to be verified. Most steel mills had small profits, and the blast furnaces in Tangshan will resume production in the second half of the week. The steel production may remain at a high level. In the short - term, steel prices may oscillate narrowly [10]. Alumina - On September 3, ao2601 closed at 2992 yuan/ton. The expectation of anti - involution policies weakened, and the market sentiment returned to be dominated by fundamentals. The short - term supply of imported bauxite was tight, but the new production capacity was expected to be continuously put into use, and the supply pressure was prominent. The increasing number of exchange - registered warehouse receipts suppressed the futures price [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 3, al2510 closed at 20,710 yuan/ton. The expectation of the Fed rate cut and China's policy support created a positive atmosphere, which was expected to boost aluminum consumption. However, it would take time for the policy to be transmitted to actual consumption. In the traditional peak season of September, aluminum prices were generally likely to rise but faced top - end pressure [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 18, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, in the short - term, the market will follow the overall commodity trend and fluctuate strongly, but in the long - term, it is bearish due to supply - demand contradictions. For glass, in the short - term, it will fluctuate with the overall commodity trend, and in the long - term, the fundamental driving force is weak [8][10] Group 4: Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On July 17, the main futures contract SA509 of soda ash turned from a decline to a rise, with a closing price of 1,225 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.15%, and a daily reduction of 39,415 lots [7] - In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand both increased, and inventory accumulation still existed. The weekly output was 733,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42%, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.48%, and the total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.26% [8] Glass - In terms of supply, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased, and the supply of float glass also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory was at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction was slow, leading to potential further inventory accumulation [9] - In the downstream, the domestic real estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the industry's downward trend continues. The policy orientation needs further observation [10] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the output of flat glass [12][13][17]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a strong rally on July 4, with notable stock performances including Lingang Co. hitting the daily limit, Liugang Co. achieving four consecutive limit-ups, and Angang Steel rising over 6% [1] - Liugang Co. has not identified any media reports or market rumors that could impact its stock price, and its fundamentals remain unchanged, with major shareholders holding 83.01% of the company [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity and improve product quality, which may positively influence the steel sector's profitability [2] Group 2 - There are reports of increased environmental restrictions and production cuts in Tangshan, with approximately half of the steel mills indicating they have received notifications regarding these measures [1] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book ratio (PB) of steel stocks may also improve as a result [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for the orderly exit of backward production capacity as a fundamental guarantee for smooth economic circulation both domestically and internationally [1][6] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting highlighted the importance of creating a unified market system to combat low-price disorderly competition and internal competition, which reflects the ongoing issues of insufficient effective demand in the economy [2][3] - The exit of backward production capacity is crucial for achieving marginal balance in supply and demand, allowing competition to shift from price wars to enhancing product quality and consumer surplus [3][4] Group 2 - To facilitate the orderly exit of backward production capacity, it is essential to eliminate systemic barriers that hinder the operation of the Bankruptcy Law and improve market exit mechanisms [3][4] - Effective risk prevention measures must be implemented, including stress testing for industry risks and requiring companies to disclose their risk assessments regularly [4][5] - Misunderstanding of risks is a significant barrier to the exit of backward production capacity; recognizing and pricing risks through market mechanisms is vital for orderly exits [5][6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic governance and policy changes in various industries, particularly focusing on the steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, and engineering machinery sectors [1][5][6][13]. Key Insights and Arguments Economic Governance and Policy Changes - The Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for building a unified national market [1][3][4]. - Current economic policies have shifted from controlling high prices to managing low prices, reflecting a focus on high-quality development rather than mere scale expansion [5][6]. - The governance approach has transitioned from anti-monopoly to addressing disorderly competition, indicating a response to insufficient total demand and low-price competition [5][6]. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a demand downturn due to real estate sector weaknesses, with manufacturing demand now accounting for over 50% of total demand [1][16]. - The average net profit of listed companies in the steel sector has turned negative for three consecutive years, indicating a supply-side contraction [1][17]. - The steel demand cycle is gradually bottoming out, with exports performing better than expected [1][16]. - Future steel prices are expected to rebound as demand stabilizes and supply contracts, with a projected upturn in the industry over the next two to three years [19]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is characterized by resource scarcity and the interplay of U.S.-China liquidity cycles, with a focus on tin and copper due to their technological applications [21][22]. - Tin demand is expected to rise due to its applications in technology, despite a temporary increase in supply from the resumption of production in certain regions [21][22]. - Copper prices are anticipated to reach historical highs driven by U.S. debt relief and seasonal demand [22]. Coal Market - The coal market is showing signs of price stabilization, with overall coal prices slowly rising after a challenging first half of 2025 [23][24]. - The relationship between electricity consumption and GDP is expected to remain stable, with new policies reducing the expected returns on renewable energy installations [23][24]. - Future coal supply is likely to decrease, particularly in Xinjiang, impacting China's overall coal production landscape [25][26]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is facing severe internal competition, but leading companies are beginning to raise product prices, which may improve profit margins [29][30]. - Domestic sales are projected to grow by 15%-20% this year, with exports performing better than initially expected [31][32]. - The cyclical growth in the machinery industry is expected to continue for the next three to five years, benefiting major manufacturers [34][35]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The governance of low-price competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity are seen as critical to addressing the internal competition and ensuring sustainable economic growth [3][4][6]. - The focus on high-quality development and the regulation of local government behaviors are essential for stabilizing the market and fostering investment opportunities in various sectors [5][6][12]. - The anticipated structural investment opportunities arising from the exit of underperforming companies in the manufacturing sector could lead to a healthier market environment [12][13].