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冠通研究:基本面支撑,铜震荡偏强
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 13:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market shows a slight rebound due to the moderation of tariff conflicts, the influence of US economic data and the US dollar. The fundamentals still support the copper market, but the market volatility remains uncertain. Although the trading is gradually returning to the fundamentals, short - term attention should still be paid to overseas trade games [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Tariff conflict between China and the US has slightly eased. The US economic data and the US dollar have led to a small rebound in copper prices. The fundamentals still support the copper market. The copper market volatility is uncertain, and short - term attention should be paid to overseas trade games. The supply is expected to be tight, and the demand from China in the second quarter is strong [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, with a closing price of 75,780 yuan per ton. The number of long orders from the top 20 was 105,352, an increase of 160, and the number of short orders was 106,572, an increase of 1,260. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 140 yuan per ton. On April 16, 2025, the LME official price was 9,118 US dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 35 US dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of April 11, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 29.5 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.95 cents per pound. The negative expansion of smelter processing fees has not been reversed, and the output is expected to decline this month. Affected by trade conflicts, the supply of scrap copper is also expected to shrink [1][5]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 7.71 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons from the previous period. As of April 14, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 121,400 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 213,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 121,600 short tons, an increase of 1,167 short tons from the previous period [9].