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美光科技:DRAM、NAND供需有望优化-20250321
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-03-21 14:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating benefits from improved supply-demand dynamics in the storage industry [4]. Core Insights - The company reported FY25Q2 revenue of $8.05 billion, a 7.5% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 38.3% increase year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $1.583 billion, down 15.3% quarter-over-quarter but up 99.6% year-over-year [1]. - The company is actively controlling production capacity, which, combined with increased consumption of DRAM by HBM, is expected to improve supply-demand conditions [2]. - The company forecasts a 15% to 20% growth in DRAM bit volume and low double-digit growth in NAND bit volume for 2025, with a mid-term CAGR of around 15% for both DRAM and NAND [2]. - The company expects data center server shipment growth in 2025 to be in the mid-single digits, driven by strong AI demand, with the HBM market projected to exceed $35 billion [3]. - The company projects FY25 revenues of $8.8 billion, with GAAP gross margins of approximately 35.5% and non-GAAP gross margins of about 36.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - FY25Q2 revenue was $8.05 billion, with a GAAP gross margin of 36.8% and a non-GAAP gross margin of 37.9%. The company expects FY25Q3 revenue to be around $8.8 billion [1]. Operational Analysis - The company is focusing on production control, with expectations that DRAM and NAND supply growth will be below industry growth rates. The NAND wafer capacity is expected to decrease by 10% by the end of FY25 compared to FY24 [2]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit growth in PC shipments and low single-digit growth in mobile shipments for 2025, with a recovery in data center NAND shipments expected in the coming months [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected net profits for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are $6.282 billion, $9.606 billion, and $9.987 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/B ratios of 2.25, 1.91, and 1.65 [4].
美光科技:DRAM、NAND供需有望优化-20250322
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-03-21 08:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating benefits from improved supply-demand dynamics in the storage industry [4]. Core Insights - The company reported FY25Q2 revenue of $8.05 billion, a 7.5% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 38.3% increase year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $1.583 billion, down 15.3% quarter-over-quarter but up 99.6% year-over-year [1]. - The company is actively controlling production capacity, expecting improvements in supply-demand balance for DRAM and NAND markets. The DRAM market is projected to grow by 15%-20% in 2025, while NAND is expected to see low double-digit growth [2]. - The company anticipates strong demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with the HBM market expected to exceed $35 billion in 2025. The demand for HBM remains robust, with the company already sold out for 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - FY25Q2 revenue was $8.05 billion, with a GAAP gross margin of 36.8% and a GAAP net profit of $1.583 billion. DRAM revenue was approximately $6.1 billion, while NAND revenue was about $1.9 billion [1]. Operational Analysis - The company is focusing on production control, with expectations that its DRAM and NAND supply growth will be below industry averages. The company plans to reduce NAND wafer capacity by 10% by the end of FY25 [2]. Market Outlook - The data center server shipment growth is expected to be in the mid-single digits, driven by strong AI demand. The PC market is projected to grow in the low single digits, with AI PCs requiring at least 16GB of memory, which will boost DRAM demand [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $6.282 billion, $9.606 billion, and $9.987 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively. The corresponding price-to-book ratios are expected to be 2.25, 1.91, and 1.65 [4].