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2025Q2央行货币政策执行报告学习:“过度减点”贷款减少,定价暂难突破成本线
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 12:13
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the divergence in credit and social financing growth, highlighting the shift of deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [4][5] - It notes that the new loan issuance continues to improve in quality, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% in the total RMB loan balance as of June 2025 [4] - The report suggests that the low-interest-rate environment is leading to a re-evaluation of the banking sector's stable dividend attributes, which are becoming increasingly scarce [7] Summary by Sections Loan Growth and Structure - As of June 2025, the RMB loan balance reached 268.6 trillion, with significant growth in loans for technology (12.5%), green finance (25.5%), inclusive finance (11.5%), elderly care (43.0%), and digital economy (11.5%) [4] - The report indicates that the new loans are being directed towards lower-risk areas, with a focus on quality rather than quantity [4] Loan Pricing and Deposit Trends - The report highlights a reduction in excessively low loan pricing, with the current estimated cost line for general corporate loans at approximately 2.71% and retail mortgages at 2.94% [5][6] - It notes a significant decline in the interest rates for new deposits, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping to about 1.29% and three-year rates to 1.69% as of June 2025 [5][17] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The central bank's monetary policy is focused on preventing fund "circulation" while maintaining a stable interest margin, with no significant tightening of the liquidity expected in the near term [6] - The report anticipates that the banking sector's operating performance will remain stable in 2025, driven by optimized asset-liability structures and controlled retail risks [7]