行 业 研 究 银行 2026 年 02 月 03 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 —行业深度报告》-2026.1.26 《规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金" 成配置主线—理财登 2025 年报解读》 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 2026 年净息差展望：筑底企稳 ——行业深度报告 刘呈祥（分析师） 朱晓云（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070010 理论估算 1.4%净息差支撑 6%左右的 RWA 增速 据我们测算，银行若保持 RWA 6%-7%的增速，理论净息差大约在 1.44%-1.57% 是底线水平，2025Q3 商业银行净息差为 1.42%，意味着银行资产扩张面临内生 资本补充的现实硬约束，"稳息差"仍然是 2026 年银行核心经 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the divergence in credit and social financing growth, highlighting the shift of deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [4][5] - It notes that the new loan issuance continues to improve in quality, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% in the total RMB loan balance as of June 2025 [4] - The report suggests that the low-interest-rate environment is leading to a re-evaluation of the banking sector's stable dividend attributes, which are becoming increasingly scarce [7] Summary by Sections Loan Growth and Structure - As of June 2025, the RMB loan balance reached 268.6 trillion, with significant growth in loans for technology (12.5%), green finance (25.5%), inclusive finance (11.5%), elderly care (43.0%), and digital economy (11.5%) [4] - The report indicates that the new loans are being directed towards lower-risk areas, with a focus on quality rather than quantity [4] Loan Pricing and Deposit Trends - The report highlights a reduction in excessively low loan pricing, with the current estimated cost line for general corporate loans at approximately 2.71% and retail mortgages at 2.94% [5][6] - It notes a significant decline in the interest rates for new deposits, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping to about 1.29% and three-year rates to 1.69% as of June 2025 [5][17] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The central bank's monetary policy is focused on preventing fund "circulation" while maintaining a stable interest margin, with no significant tightening of the liquidity expected in the near term [6] - The report anticipates that the banking sector's operating performance will remain stable in 2025, driven by optimized asset-liability structures and controlled retail risks [7]