Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the net interest margin (NIM) for listed banks is expected to slightly narrow by 4 basis points in 2026, with pressure concentrated in the first half of the year [5][49] - The theoretical NIM is estimated to support a risk-weighted asset (RWA) growth rate of around 6%, with a bottom line NIM of approximately 1.44%-1.57% [17] - The report highlights that the deposit pricing structure has improved, leading to a reduction in deposit costs, which supports the stabilization of NIM [4][23] Summary by Sections 1. NIM Outlook - The NIM for listed banks is projected to narrow by 4 basis points in 2026, primarily due to factors affecting both the asset and liability sides [5][49] - The asset side will experience a negative impact from loan repricing and bond investment returns, while the liability side will benefit from the repricing of high-interest deposits [49][53] 2. Deposit Pricing Dynamics - The average deposit cost for listed banks is expected to decrease by 15 basis points to 1.35% in 2026, driven by the maturity of high-interest deposits [7][8] - The report notes that the repricing of maturing deposits will contribute positively to the improvement of deposit costs by approximately 14.7 basis points [8][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a bottom-line allocation to large state-owned banks, with specific beneficiaries identified as Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [9] - Core allocations should focus on leading comprehensive banks, with China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank highlighted as key beneficiaries [9] 4. Market Trends - The report discusses the trend of deposit non-bankization, which negatively impacts the overall deposit cost rate, indicating a shift in deposit structures [34][37] - It also mentions that the competitive landscape for deposit pricing has eased, reducing the "involution" in deposit competition among banks [45][46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the divergence in credit and social financing growth, highlighting the shift of deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [4][5] - It notes that the new loan issuance continues to improve in quality, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% in the total RMB loan balance as of June 2025 [4] - The report suggests that the low-interest-rate environment is leading to a re-evaluation of the banking sector's stable dividend attributes, which are becoming increasingly scarce [7] Summary by Sections Loan Growth and Structure - As of June 2025, the RMB loan balance reached 268.6 trillion, with significant growth in loans for technology (12.5%), green finance (25.5%), inclusive finance (11.5%), elderly care (43.0%), and digital economy (11.5%) [4] - The report indicates that the new loans are being directed towards lower-risk areas, with a focus on quality rather than quantity [4] Loan Pricing and Deposit Trends - The report highlights a reduction in excessively low loan pricing, with the current estimated cost line for general corporate loans at approximately 2.71% and retail mortgages at 2.94% [5][6] - It notes a significant decline in the interest rates for new deposits, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping to about 1.29% and three-year rates to 1.69% as of June 2025 [5][17] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The central bank's monetary policy is focused on preventing fund "circulation" while maintaining a stable interest margin, with no significant tightening of the liquidity expected in the near term [6] - The report anticipates that the banking sector's operating performance will remain stable in 2025, driven by optimized asset-liability structures and controlled retail risks [7]