银行 银行 2025 年 08 月 17 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《信贷社融增长背离，存款活化流向 非银—行业点评报告》-2025.8.15 《财政贴息修复量价险，国股行红利 属性强化—行业点评报告》-2025.8.14 《低利率下的居民"存款搬家"及财 富配置—路径、规模与海外镜鉴》 -2025.8.9 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 5 "过度减点"贷款减少，定价暂难突破成本线 ——2025Q2 央行货币政策执行报告学习 刘呈祥（分析师） 朱晓云（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070010 2025Q2 新增贷款投放延续提质增效，正确理解信贷节奏阶段放缓 截至 2025 年 6 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 268.6 万亿，同比增长 7.1%。结 构上看信贷资源继续向"五篇大文章"集中，科技、绿色、普 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to see positive trends in net interest income (NII) and expenses, indicating a favorable financial outlook moving forward [10][12] - The net interest margin (NIM) has exceeded the 3% level ahead of schedule, with expectations for continued expansion [12][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The loan portfolio is approximately 46% fixed rate, down from 48.5% in the previous quarter, indicating a shift towards variable rate loans [17] - The company has seen strong production in variable loans, with 75% of new production being variable this quarter, compared to 80% in the previous quarter [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing elevated payoffs, particularly in the construction sector, but does not anticipate significant changes in the paydown environment for the second half of the year [21][26] - The pipeline for loans remains strong, with a notable increase in commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, suggesting a positive outlook for future growth [37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining expense discipline while making significant investments in talent and technology to enhance operational capacity [30][31] - There is an emphasis on talent acquisition and retention, with the company positioning itself as a desirable destination for talent amid industry disruptions [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses confidence in the ability to execute on performance targets, with ongoing trends in business performance exceeding internal expectations [10][11] - The competitive landscape for loan pricing is acknowledged, with a commitment to maintaining pricing discipline despite market pressures [13][14] Other Important Information - The company has a continuous improvement mindset regarding expense management, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency [29] - The management team is optimistic about profitability improvements in the second half of the year, supported by strong employee engagement [43][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in guidance for the second half of 2025 - Management notes that guidance is typically provided in January, but current trends are positive and align with internal expectations [9][10] Question: Outlook on NIM and deposit costs - Management indicates that while there are opportunities for NIM expansion, the repricing dynamic for deposits is becoming less compelling [12][15] Question: Expectations for loan payoffs in the second half of the year - Management expects payoffs to remain consistent with the first half of the year, without significant changes anticipated [21] Question: Dynamics of the loan pipeline - Management attributes a modest decrease in the pipeline to a pull forward of opportunities in the first quarter and normal seasonal trends [25][26] Question: Hiring environment and talent acquisition - Management reports a favorable hiring environment and emphasizes ongoing investments in talent and technology to support business growth [31][32]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [3] Core Insights - The central bank is unlikely to restart government bond purchases in the short term due to macro-prudential considerations and the current state of the bond market [1][9][11] - The central bank's recent report indicates a focus on preventing excessive reductions in loan pricing, emphasizing a bottom-line thinking approach to loan pricing [2][14][15] - A significant probability exists for deposit rate cuts to be implemented in the second quarter, which is expected to improve the net interest margin by 3 basis points [3][16][21] Summary by Sections 1. Government Bond Purchase Operations - The central bank will continue to observe and assess the bond market, indicating no immediate need to restart bond purchases [1][9] - The 10-year government bond yield has recently dropped to a low range of 1.6%-1.7%, suggesting a demand for support from the central bank [11][12] - The decision to restart operations will depend on market supply and demand, with current conditions not necessitating immediate action [10][12] 2. Loan Pricing Signals - The report details the distribution of loan pricing reductions, indicating a trend towards more significant reductions [2][14] - The central bank aims to prevent loan rates from falling below the breakeven point, which is crucial for maintaining banks' net interest margins [15] - Recent regulatory measures have been introduced to curb excessively low loan pricing, particularly for corporate loans and consumer loans [14][15] 3. Deposit Rate Cuts - The central bank has indicated a likely reduction in deposit rates, which typically precedes a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][16] - Historical patterns show that deposit rate cuts often lead to subsequent adjustments in policy rates and LPR [16][18] - The expected deposit rate cuts are projected to save interest expenses of approximately 884 billion, improving the net interest margin by 3 basis points [21][25]