Domestic News - The State Council's office has forwarded the Ministry of Finance's guidance on standardizing the construction and operation of existing government and social capital cooperation (PPP) projects, emphasizing increased financial support for eligible ongoing projects. Local governments can utilize general and special bonds for government expenditures related to the construction costs of PPP projects [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that childcare subsidies issued under the childcare subsidy system will be exempt from personal income tax, effective from January 1, 2025 [2] Financial Regulations - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is seeking public opinion on the draft of the "Commercial Bank Merger Loan Management Measures," which categorizes merger loans into control-type and equity participation-type loans, with specific conditions for each type [2] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced strong growth in the first half of 2025, with a total fundraising amount of HKD 109.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 716%. There are currently 207 listing applications being processed [4] Economic Data - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, both unchanged [2] - The latest data from Japan shows a significant year-on-year decline in exports by 2.6% in July, marking the third consecutive month of negative growth [6]

银行 银行 2025 年 08 月 17 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《信贷社融增长背离，存款活化流向 非银—行业点评报告》-2025.8.15 《财政贴息修复量价险，国股行红利 属性强化—行业点评报告》-2025.8.14 《低利率下的居民"存款搬家"及财 富配置—路径、规模与海外镜鉴》 -2025.8.9 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 5 "过度减点"贷款减少，定价暂难突破成本线 ——2025Q2 央行货币政策执行报告学习 刘呈祥（分析师） 朱晓云（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070010 2025Q2 新增贷款投放延续提质增效，正确理解信贷节奏阶段放缓 截至 2025 年 6 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 268.6 万亿，同比增长 7.1%。结 构上看信贷资源继续向"五篇大文章"集中，科技、绿色、普 ...

Core Insights - The banking sector in China has shown a steady growth in total assets, reaching 467.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9% as of Q2 2025 [1] - Large commercial banks are leading the way in supporting the real economy, with a significant portion of loans directed towards small and micro enterprises [2] Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - As of Q2 2025, total assets of large commercial banks reached 204.2 trillion yuan, growing by 10.4% year-on-year [1] - The balance of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans stood at 36 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [1] - The balance of inclusive agricultural loans reached 13.9 trillion yuan, with an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Loan Distribution by Bank Type - By Q2 2025, large commercial banks held approximately 16.2 trillion yuan in inclusive small and micro loans, while other bank types had lower balances [2] - The inclusive agricultural loan balances for different bank types were: 5.2 trillion yuan for large commercial banks, 0.4 trillion yuan for joint-stock commercial banks, 1.0 trillion yuan for urban commercial banks, and 7.2 trillion yuan for rural financial institutions [2] Group 3: Profitability and Interest Margin - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 1.2 trillion yuan, with an average capital return rate of 8.19% [3] - The net interest margin for commercial banks was recorded at 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] - Net interest margins varied by bank type, with private banks showing the highest at 3.91% [3] Group 4: Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The overall quality of credit assets remained stable, with non-performing loans totaling 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter [4] - The non-performing loan ratio was 1.49%, down by 0.02 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] - As of Q2 2025, the capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 15.58%, reflecting an increase of 0.30 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry in China has shown resilience and stability in the first half of the year, with key indicators such as non-performing loan ratio, provision coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio remaining stable and improving, indicating a strong capacity to resist risks and support the real economy [2][6]. Group 1: Banking Industry Performance - As of mid-year, total assets of banking financial institutions reached 467.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with large commercial banks' total assets at 204.2 trillion yuan, growing by 10.4% [1]. - The non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, down by 0.02 percentage points [7]. Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The balance of inclusive micro-enterprise loans reached 36 trillion yuan, growing by 12.3% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans amounted to 13.9 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [3]. - Large commercial banks played a significant role in supporting the real economy, with their inclusive micro-enterprise loan balance exceeding 16 trillion yuan, accounting for a higher proportion of the total industry loans [4]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The banking sector has improved operational efficiency, with the cost-to-income ratio at 30.2%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from the previous year, and non-interest income ratio rising to 25.75%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points [5]. - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter [5]. Group 4: Risk Management and Capital Adequacy - The banking sector has increased provisions and improved asset disposal efforts, with new provisions totaling 1.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 579 billion yuan year-on-year, and non-performing asset disposals reaching 1.5 trillion yuan, up by 1.236 trillion yuan [7]. - Capital adequacy ratios showed improvement, with the overall capital adequacy ratio at 15.58%, up by 0.30 percentage points from the previous quarter [7].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry in China has shown resilience and stability in the first half of the year, with key indicators such as non-performing loan ratio, provision coverage ratio, and capital adequacy ratio remaining stable and improving, indicating a strong capacity to resist risks and support the real economy [1][8]. Group 1: Banking Industry Performance - As of mid-year, total assets of banking financial institutions reached 467.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with large commercial banks holding 204.2 trillion yuan, up 10.4% [1]. - The non-performing loan balance for commercial banks was 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, down 0.02 percentage points [8]. Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The balance of inclusive micro and small enterprise loans reached 36 trillion yuan, growing by 12.3% year-on-year, while inclusive agricultural loans increased to 13.9 trillion yuan, with an increase of 1.1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [3][4]. - Large commercial banks accounted for over 16 trillion yuan of the inclusive micro and small enterprise loans, with their share increasing by 2.34 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [4]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The cost-to-income ratio for commercial banks was 30.2%, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from the previous year, while the proportion of non-interest income rose to 25.75%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points [6]. - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter [6]. Group 4: Credit Risk Management - The banking sector has proactively managed credit risks, increasing provisions by 1.1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 579 billion yuan more than the previous year, and disposed of 1.5 trillion yuan of non-performing assets, an increase of 1.236 trillion yuan year-on-year [8]. - Capital adequacy ratios improved, with the overall capital adequacy ratio at 15.58%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous quarter [8]. Group 5: Capital Expansion - Since the beginning of the year, the issuance of tier-2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds by commercial banks has exceeded 1 trillion yuan [9]. - Major banks such as Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of Communications have issued total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) non-capital bonds, with total issuance amounts of 80 billion yuan, 80 billion yuan, and 70 billion yuan respectively [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a shift in credit allocation from heavy asset industries to high-quality development sectors, with loans in the "five major articles" now accounting for approximately 70% of new loans, compared to over 60% in real estate and infrastructure in 2016 [2][3]. Group 1: Credit Structure Evolution - Over the past decade, the structure of new loans has significantly evolved, with a notable increase in loans directed towards technology and green finance [3]. - As of June 2025, technology loans have maintained a growth rate of over 12.5%, outpacing the overall loan growth by 5.8 percentage points [3]. - Green loan balances have surged from 9.9 trillion yuan at the end of 2019 to 36.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 20% [3]. Group 2: Inclusive Finance Development - By the second quarter of 2025, the balance of loans to small and micro enterprises reached 65 trillion yuan, increasing its share of corporate loans from 30.4% in 2014 to 38.2% [4]. - The average annual growth rate of loans to small and micro enterprises has been approximately 15% over the past decade [4]. - The interest rate for newly issued inclusive small and micro enterprise loans was 3.48% as of June 2025, a decrease of over 2 percentage points compared to pre-LPR reform levels [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Considerations - The PBOC plans to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on maintaining liquidity and aligning social financing growth with economic growth and price level expectations [6]. - The report highlights the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy [6]. - The central bank has noted the complexities and challenges facing the economy, including external pressures and low-price competition in certain sectors, which could impact supply-demand balance [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive trends in China's financial data, indicating a stable growth in social financing and improvements in credit structure, driven by effective financial policies [1][3] - As of the end of July, the year-on-year growth rates for social financing scale, broad money M2, and RMB loans were 9%, 8.8%, and 6.9% respectively, reflecting enhanced financial support for the real economy [1] - The narrowing of the M1-M2 spread to 3.2 percentage points, down 11 percentage points from the previous year's high, indicates increased liquidity and economic vitality, with more "dormant deposits" being converted into demand deposits [1][2] Group 2 - The growth of M1, which includes cash and demand deposits, has been positively influenced by the acceleration of fiscal spending and the issuance of special bonds, leading to a significant increase in corporate demand deposits [2][3] - The divergence between social financing and loan growth, with social financing growth outpacing loan growth by 2.1 percentage points, is attributed to sustained fiscal policy efforts, including a notable increase in government bond net financing [3] - The issuance of new special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 45% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued rapid issuance in August and September [3] Group 3 - The diversification of corporate financing channels has made traditional loan metrics less reflective of financial support effectiveness, necessitating a broader analysis using indicators like social financing and M2 [4] - Structural monetary policy tools have been optimized to enhance financial support for key sectors, with significant loan growth observed in technology, green, inclusive, and digital economy sectors [4] - By the end of July, inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing 11.8% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector totaled 14.79 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - Recent policies on personal consumption loans and service industry loan interest subsidies aim to strengthen fiscal and financial collaboration, directing more credit to key areas [5] - The interest subsidy policy is expected to lower repayment costs for residents, enhancing consumption capacity and willingness, while also alleviating financial pressure on service industry operators [5] - This initiative is anticipated to stimulate credit demand, expand business operations, and create more job opportunities [5]

Group 1: Financial Growth and Monetary Policy - The growth rate of total financial volume remains high, with social financing scale stock increasing by 9% year-on-year as of the end of July [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The structure of credit has improved, with inclusive small and micro loans reaching 35.05 trillion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans in manufacturing at 14.79 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Government Bonds and Direct Financing - The cumulative net financing of government bonds in the first seven months increased by 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, serving as a major support for social financing scale growth [2] - Direct financing, primarily through government and corporate bonds, is growing faster than credit financing, reflecting the development of the direct financing market [2] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on July 30 emphasized accelerating government bond issuance, which is expected to further boost social financing growth in the third quarter [2] Group 3: Loan Dynamics and Seasonal Trends - July typically sees a seasonal decline in loan issuance, influenced by financial institutions adjusting credit issuance and the need for businesses to settle accounts [3] - The ongoing policy of replacing hidden debts is impacting loan growth, with estimates suggesting that this factor reduces loan growth by over 1 percentage point [3] - Recent efforts to eliminate "involution" competition may lead to a decrease in credit demand from small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 4: Interest Rates and Financing Costs - Interest rates remain low, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of about 45 and 30 basis points respectively [3][4] - The low interest rates indicate a relatively abundant supply of credit, making it easier and cheaper for borrowers to obtain bank loans [4] - Initiatives to promote transparency in the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises are underway, which may lead to clearer financing costs in the future [4]

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's financial support for the real economy remains robust, with significant growth in social financing, broad money supply (M2), and RMB loans, all outpacing economic growth [1][3]. Financial Statistics - As of the end of July 2025, the social financing scale reached 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2]. - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [2]. - RMB loans amounted to 268.51 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [4]. Economic Context - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, which supports the reasonable growth of financial totals [1]. - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates indicates improved liquidity and efficiency in fund circulation, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations [2][3]. Loan Dynamics - The growth in loans is influenced by seasonal characteristics, with July typically being a month of lower credit activity due to various factors, including the end of the first half of the year [4][5]. - The shift towards bond financing for infrastructure projects is noted, with many governments and enterprises preferring this method over traditional bank loans [5][6]. Financial Quality and Cost - The quality of financial support is emphasized, with a focus on providing precise and efficient services rather than merely increasing loan volumes [6]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans have decreased to approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, reflecting a more favorable borrowing environment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of monetary policy and fiscal measures on credit growth in China, highlighting the effects of debt replacement, risk mitigation, and the reduction of "involution" in the financial sector on loan dynamics and overall economic recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Credit Growth and Monetary Policy - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB loans grew by 6.9% year-on-year, down from 7.1% the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors and external elements such as local government debt management and financial institution reforms [2][3]. - The total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months, with a year-on-year increase of 5.12 trillion yuan, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment [1][8]. - The difference in growth rates between narrow money supply (M1) and broad money supply (M2) narrowed significantly, reflecting improved liquidity and market confidence due to effective policies [1][2]. Group 2: Debt Replacement and Risk Mitigation - The ongoing debt replacement policy is expected to lower loan growth temporarily, as high-interest short-term debts are converted into low-interest long-term debts, impacting the overall loan growth rate [2][3]. - The estimated impact of debt replacement and risk mitigation measures on current loan growth exceeds 1 percentage point, indicating significant external influences on credit dynamics [2][3]. Group 3: Credit Structure Optimization - The loan growth in sectors such as technology, green finance, and small and micro enterprises has outpaced overall loan growth, suggesting a shift towards more productive credit allocation [6]. - As of the end of July, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year, indicating a strong focus on supporting small businesses [6]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans have decreased significantly, reflecting a more favorable lending environment for borrowers [6]. Group 4: Government Bond Financing - The net financing of government bonds has shown a significant increase, with a cumulative net financing of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting the overall social financing scale [8]. - The issuance of new special bonds exceeded 610 billion yuan in the past month, marking a record high for the year and indicating a proactive fiscal policy stance [8][9]. - The shift towards direct financing, including government and corporate bonds, is becoming more pronounced, providing diverse financing options for enterprises [9].