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集运日报:市场多空博弈,盘面宽幅震荡,已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动-20251204
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 05:58
Report Summary on Shipping Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market experiences a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the price chart showing wide - range fluctuations. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuations. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of the spot freight rate. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Indexes - **SCFIS**: On December 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. On November 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period, and the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period [3]. - **NCFI**: On December 1st, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period. On November 28th, the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3]. - **CCFI**: On November 28th, the China Export Container Freight Index (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Indicators - In the Eurozone in October, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix Investor Confidence Index was with a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. - In China in October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in enterprise production and operation activities [4]. - In the US in October, the preliminary S&P Global Services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4]. 3.3 Market and Contract Information - On December 3rd, the main contract 2602 closed at 1540.1, up 0.92%, with a trading volume of 22,300 lots and an open interest of 35,000 lots, a decrease of 1354 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract rebounds after a retracement, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to try a long position in the main contract with a light position. When the price chart shows a small plunge, it is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - loss levels [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high points, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the next direction [5]. 3.5 Contract Rules Adjustment - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].