Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the EC2602 contract, it is moving towards the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market [3]. - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in the Week 5 MSK opening price may suppress the market, but the increasing rush - shipping scale due to falling freight rates may weaken the price decline slope in March. The valuation fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities [3]. - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts. Considering significant geopolitical disturbances in the far - month contracts, it is generally recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On January 15, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1718.0 (down 0.14%), 1230.5 (up 2.57%), 1424.1 (up 0.75%), 1532.6 (up 0.18%), and 1118.0 (up 0.96%) respectively. The trading volumes were 5642, 45075, 1903, 212, and 1822, and the open interests were 10461 (down 1401), 40044 (up 1274), 3130 (down 134), 1306 (down 53), and 7625 (up 179) [2]. - **Month - spread**: The month - spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 were 487.5 and - 193.6 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 33.2 and 20.2 [2]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period; the SCFI (European Line) on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.72% [2]. Spot Market Conditions - **Week 3**: MSK opened at 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points [4]. - **Week 4**: MSK opened at 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points [4]. - **Week 5**: MSK opened at 2400 dollars (down 300 dollars from the previous week), YML quoted 2650 dollars, MSC quoted 2640 dollars. The overall central price was 2650 dollars (equivalent to 1855 points). On Wednesday, YML offered special prices of 2250 dollars for two routes [4]. News - **Palestinian Cease - fire Agreement**: On January 15, Palestinian factions reached a consensus on the second - stage requirements of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and on establishing an independent committee to manage Gaza [5]. - **US and Iran Situation**: The US special envoy launched the second stage of the "ten - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict; Iran closed its airspace; Trump hinted at postponing military action against Iran, causing international oil prices to drop by 4% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping futures market is currently strong, driven by optimistic expectations in the spot market, with the EC main contract increasing in position and rising. The market anticipates that the overall opening freight rate center of SK will continue to rise. The spot market is still in the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the spot freight rate has not reached its peak yet. In the short term, the main contract is still in the process of reaching its peak and may then show wide - range fluctuations. The far - month contracts are suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations and may remain in a positive spread pattern [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Performance - After the EC opened, the main contract reached a maximum of 1900 points, with an increase in positions of over 5800 lots and a maximum increase of 10.42%. The near - and far - month contracts maintained a positive spread. As of the close, the 02 contract increased its positions by over 5000 lots, closing at 1871.8 points, up 8.8%, and the positions rose to 37,000 lots; the 04 contract closed at 116.6 points, up 3.4%, and the positions increased by 1634 lots. The 12 contract may decline slightly tomorrow [2][4] Spot Freight Rates - The post - market SCFIS was updated at 1589.20 points, up 5.2%, corresponding to the shipping price in mid - December at around $2250 - $2300/FEU. The spot freight rates of various shipping lines showed an upward trend. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate on January 1 was updated at $2530/FEU, a $30/FEU increase compared to the opening. The 0MA's opening freight rate in January was at $3745/FEU, a $1000/FEU increase compared to late December. The spot freight rate has not reached its peak yet, and the shipping companies may announce an increase in the spot freight rate in the second half of January [2][3][4] Market Influencing Factors - The market's expectation of significant over - capacity has eased because the resumption of navigation has not changed from expectation to reality. Geopolitical factors still have the possibility of recurrence, which promotes the overall rebound of the futures market. The last trading day of the 02 contract has a boosting effect on the contract price. There are still some disturbances in the market, such as the adjustment of spot shipping capacity, the uncertainty of the decline range after the spot price peaks, and the possible adjustment of the market position transfer [3][4] Market Outlook - It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the freight rates of shipping companies such as MSK in mid - to late January and whether the inflection point of the spot freight rate appears. The implementation of the Middle - East cease - fire agreement and the Russia - Ukraine conflict still has certain uncertainties. The main contract is expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the far - month contracts may remain in a positive spread pattern [4]

2025年12月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场多空博弈，盘面宽幅震荡, 已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 | 12月1日 | II FZOD | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点,较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 11月28日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13 点,较上期上涨9.57点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1404USD/TEU, 较上期上涨2.71% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profit and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see as the freight rate has no obvious fluctuations [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The current core is the direction of the spot freight rate. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - After the rapid recovery of the market, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and the spot freight rate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 28th, compared with November 24th: The NCFI (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77%; the SCFIS (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5%; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% [1]. - On November 28th: The SCFI announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71%; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1%; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79%; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% [1]. Economic Data of Different Regions - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was -9.2, forecast value was -8.5 [2]. - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Main Contract Data - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position long in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600. If the market drops sharply, do not add positions and do not hold on to losing positions. Set a stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, and then wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Rules Adjustments - The daily limit and daily floor for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Western Land - Sea New Corridor - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of containerized goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. This year alone, the volume has exceeded 1.3 million TEUs, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are lower than the announced increase, suppressing the market to decline, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] - The impact of the tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates [2] Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - From November 14th to 17th, the NCFI (comprehensive index) dropped 5.12% to 999.69 points, the SCFIS (European route) decreased 9.8% to 1357.67 points, the NCFI (European route) rose 7.42% to 979.34 points, the SCFIS (US - West route) fell 6.9% to 1238.42 points, and the NCFI (US - West route) dropped 21.99% to 1052.43 points [1] - From November 14th, the SCFI published price dropped 43.72 points to 1451.38 points, the CCFI (comprehensive index) rose 3.4% to 1094.03 points, the SCFI European route price rose 7.1% to 1417 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) rose 2.7% to 1403.64 points, the SCFI US - West route dropped 17.59% to 1823 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US - West route) rose 3.9% to 846.24 points [1] Economic Data - In the Eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the services PMI initial value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the composite PMI initial value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 (previous value, forecast - 8.5) [1] - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI initial value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI initial value was 52.2 (expected 52), and the composite PMI initial value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2] Market Conditions - On November 19th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1640.1, with a decline of 2.66%, a trading volume of 18,700 lots, and an open interest of 40,200 lots, an increase of 1384 lots from the previous day [2] - Bearish sentiment persists, and the overall market is under pressure due to spot freight rates being lower than the expected announced increase [2] Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try due to large fluctuations in each contract [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [3] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index's sharp rise drives the far - month contracts. Risk - preferring investors are advised to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the initial value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. - The initial value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the initial value of the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the initial value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The euro - zone Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. Contract Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The trading limits of contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract retraces while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try long positions lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, focus on the spot trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS shows a continuous upward trend, and the freight rate range has seasonally shifted upwards again. Risk - takers can pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [3]. - In the short term, the main contract is retracting while the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Contents Market Data - **11月3日**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - **11月7日**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. - **11月10日**: The main contract 2512 closed at 1778.2, with a decline of 1.84%, a trading volume of 20,400 lots, and an open interest of 26,700 lots, an increase of 793 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45), services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4), and composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, and the predicted value was - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2), manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52), and composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly try [4]. - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. - There are geopolitical conflict events, extreme weather, and sharp fluctuations in the external crude oil market that need attention [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a container shipping morning report released on November 5, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] Group 2: Futures Market Analysis Futures Contracts - EC2512 closed at 1909.9 with a 3.14% increase, EC2602 at 1593.7 with a 0.09% increase, EC2604 at 1190.0 with a 0.47% increase, EC2606 at 1411.0 with a 0.75% increase, EC2608 at 1485.0 with a 0.10% increase, and EC2610 at 1135.0 with a 0.38% decrease [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504 spread was 719.9, up 52.6 from the previous day and 123.7 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 316.2, up 56.7 from the previous day and 112.8 week - on - week; EC2502 - 2604 spread was 403.7, down 4.1 from the previous day and up 10.9 week - on - week [2] Group 3: Spot Market Analysis Spot Indices - SCFI (European Line) on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81, up 2.37% from the previous period; NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62, up 17.43% from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Quotes - In early November, PA's price dropped to $1700 - 1900, GEMIN to $2100 - 2200, and OA to $2250, with an average of about $2050 (equivalent to 1430 points on the disk) [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategies - The 12 - contract has multiple positive drivers but high valuation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - The 02 - contract's valuation is hard to anchor, and it is expected to follow the 12 - contract in the next month [3] - The 04 - contract is a off - season contract, and it is recommended to sell on rallies considering future supply pressure, off - season factors, and potential resumption of shipping [3] Group 5: News and Events - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement; on November 2, the Houthi armed forces said they would respond strongly to any Israeli aggression [5] - On November 4, the MSK price increase news and the price increase letters from HPL and MSC drove the main contract to strengthen significantly, and the far - month contracts were slightly driven up by the near - month contracts [2][3] - On November 5, MSC and HPL issued price increase letters for the second half of November, announcing price increases to $3000 and $3100 per FEU respectively [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current valuation of the December contract is moderately high. With multiple price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December as positive drivers, it is recommended to adopt a "buy - on - dips" strategy, waiting for next week or continue to trade based on the PA price cut/MSK's flat opening [3]. - The February contract's valuation is difficult to anchor, with high uncertainty. It is expected to follow the December contract's trend in the next month [3]. - The April contract is for the off - season. It will fluctuate within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic and face greater supply pressure next year. A "sell - on - rallies" strategy is recommended [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - For EC2512, the closing price was 1804.0, down 2.16%, with a basis of - 491.3, trading volume of 59519, and an open interest of 31365, an increase of 1259 [2]. - For EC2602, the closing price was 1553.6, down 1.86%, with a basis of - 240.9, trading volume of 11387, and an open interest of 18455, an increase of 2222 [2]. - For EC2604, the closing price was 1161.1, down 1.26%, with a basis of 151.6, trading volume of 4119, and an open interest of 14910, an increase of 450 [2]. - For EC2606, the closing price was 1379.6, down 1.69%, with a basis of - 66.9, trading volume of 366, and an open interest of 1521, an increase of 110 [2]. - For EC2608, the closing price was 1471.1, down 1.10%, with a basis of - 158.4, trading volume of 226, and an open interest of 1352, an increase of 23 [2]. - For EC2610, the closing price was 1132.0, down 0.04%, with a basis of 180.7, trading volume of 442, and an open interest of 1280, an increase of 218 [2]. Month - spread Data - The EC2512 - 2504 month - spread was 642.9, down 25.0 day - on - day and up 21.6 week - on - week [2]. - The EC2512 - 2602 month - spread was 250.4, down 10.4 day - on - day and up 39.3 week - on - week [2]. - The EC2502 - 2604 month - spread was 392.5, down 14.6 day - on - day and down 17.7 week - on - week [2]. Spot Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on October 27, 2025, was 1312.71, up 15.11% from the previous period [2]. - The SCFI (European Line) on October 31, 2025, was 1344 dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period [2]. - The CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81, up 2.37% from the previous period [2]. - The NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62, up 17.43% from the previous period [2]. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, in week 49, there was one additional sail - canceling, and two ships postponed departure. The average weekly capacity in November and December is 290,000 and 336,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sail - canceling, it is 286,000 and 313,000 TEU. The capacity in week 45/46/47/48 of November was 310,000/250,000/277,000/325,000 TEU respectively, with greater pressure in the second half of November [2]. - In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, while the PA alliance was short of goods and led the price cut [2]. Recent European Line Quotation - Downstream customers are finalizing the cabin bookings for early November (week 45). In the first half of November, the PA alliance cut prices the most, to 1700 - 1900 US dollars, GEMIN to 2100 - 2200 US dollars, and OA to 2250 US dollars, with an average of about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures market) [4]. Related News - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement. The cease - fire agreement mediated by the US has been in effect for three weeks, but issues such as Hamas' disarmament and Israel's withdrawal schedule from Gaza remain unsolved [5]. - On November 1, Qatar warned that Gaza might fall into a "neither war nor peace" situation, calling on the international community to intervene [5]. - On November 3, the Houthi armed forces stated that they would strongly respond to any Israeli aggression [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The market may be optimistic about future freight rates, leading to an upward trend in the market, but it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - In the short - term, for risk - preference investors, it is recommended to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the callback to stabilize before making further judgments [2]. - In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Contents Freight Rate Index Changes - On October 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% [2]. - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1%; the SCFI European line price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1936 USD/FEU, up 31.9%; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% [2]. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of enterprises' production and operation activities accelerated [2]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [2]. Market and Contract Information - On October 21, the main contract 2512 closed at 1769.3, up 5.10%, with a trading volume of 42,900 lots and an open interest of 28,400 lots, an increase of 2333 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [2]. Geopolitical and Industry News - Hamas is discussing the next - stage Gaza cease - fire agreement in Cairo, Egypt. The issue of Hamas disarmament has been put on the agenda and needs to be resolved through consensus and in - depth dialogue among Palestinian political parties [2]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreed to adjourn the special meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) to review and adopt the draft amendment to Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention, including the IMO net - zero framework. The meeting will reconvene in 12 months [2].