安全悖论

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相比英伟达,好市多和沃尔玛才是“贵得离谱”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-28 01:24
美国零售巨头沃尔玛和好市多的估值已超越英伟达,投资者对这些"安全股"的盲目信任可能正在酝酿 一场危险的股市修正。 8月27日,彭博社财经评论员Jonathan Levin发表文章指出,当市场的目光都聚焦在英伟达那高昂的股价 上时,一个更隐蔽、或许也更危险的估值泡沫,可能正在好市多和沃尔玛这两家被视为"绝对安全"的零 售巨头身上发生。 作者指出目前沃尔玛和好市多的远期市盈率分别达到34.3倍和47倍,均高于英伟达的34倍。而这两家公 司的股票之所以昂贵,并非完全因为其业务增长前景,而更多是源于一种"安全悖论"。 作者警告说,正如"兴登堡号"飞艇在坠毁前一直保持着近乎完美的飞行记录一样,市场中最惨痛的抛 售,往往发生在那些被人们误以为绝对安全的领域。 估值水平远超合理区间 文章援引数据指出,沃尔玛和好市多的远期市盈率分别高达34.3倍和47倍,而同期英伟达的市盈 率"仅"为34倍。 更重要的是,这种高估值已经严重偏离了它们自身的历史水平。 作者强调沃尔玛当前的市盈率比其过去十年(2015-2024)的平均值高出约3.3个标准差,而好市多也高 出了约1.7个标准差。 用更直白的语言解释就是,这两家公司的股价已经进入 ...
择业与择偶中的长期主义
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-05 23:56
Group 1 - The article discusses the struggles of middle-aged employees in East Asia, particularly focusing on the character Choi Ban-seok from the drama "Until Crazy," who faces job insecurity and internal company politics after being reassigned to the HR department [2][4][5] - The narrative highlights the emotional and psychological challenges faced by middle-aged workers, including feelings of helplessness and the impact of personal relationships on their professional lives [7][8][9] - The story concludes with a message of resilience, as the main characters find new opportunities and personal growth despite the adversities they face in the workplace [6] Group 2 - The article contrasts different career paths, emphasizing the importance of long-term value in job selection, particularly for those who have excelled in traditional education systems [11][19] - It suggests that individuals should prioritize jobs that offer long-term benefits over immediate financial gains, as the latter may lead to dissatisfaction and instability in the future [13][19] - The discussion also touches on the societal pressures regarding marriage and career choices, indicating that external conditions should not overshadow personal values and character when making life decisions [20][23][24] Group 3 - The article reflects on the unpredictability of life and the importance of accepting change, suggesting that stability is an illusion and that individuals must be prepared for uncertainties [29][30][31] - It emphasizes the need for a mindset that embraces the transient nature of life while also advocating for proactive efforts to build a meaningful and resilient future [34][35]