Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the contradictions in the crude oil market are not prominent, and the oil price is in a volatile and oscillating process. Seasonal demand supports the prices of refined oil and crude oil, and the expectations of tariff negotiations and geopolitical situations are relatively relaxed, making it difficult to determine the direction of oil prices. In the medium and long term, the view in the semi - annual report is maintained, with a cautious bullish outlook. The improvement of macro and policy expectations, including the successful passage of the US tax - cut bill and China's "anti - involution" policy, boosts the sentiment of commodity bulls. Although the crude oil market is still in the OPEC+ production - increasing cycle, the new round of fiscal expansion brought by the tax - cut bill may support the long - term economic improvement, and it may be better to look for opportunities to go long on dips [5][67]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Range - bound and Volatility Regression**: After the geopolitical conflict subsided, crude oil trading returned to fundamental and macro factors. The macro factors were positive while the fundamental factors were negative, resulting in a three - week oscillating process with a volatility regression. As of July 17, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $66.31 per barrel, Brent crude oil at $69.65 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 516.8 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - **Continued Oscillation of Calendar Spreads**: The calendar spreads of crude oil continued to oscillate [11]. - **Brent Fund Net Long Positions Returned to a Neutral to High Level**: As of the week ending July 8, the WTI fund net long positions were 145,697 lots, a decrease of 28,936 lots from the previous week. The Brent fund net long positions were 217,832 lots, an increase of 51,322 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline increased by 2,676 lots, diesel by 12,369 lots, and heating oil by 6,534 lots [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: The production - increasing expectations are gradually being realized. At the July 5 meeting, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August and is expected to approve another significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September. By then, the voluntarily cut production of about 2.2 million barrels per day by OPEC+ will be fully restored. In June, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, with a month - on - month increase of 173,000 barrels per day, while Iran's production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day [20]. - **United States**: The daily crude oil production is oscillating at a high level. As of the week ending July 11, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.407 million barrels per day. The Trump administration's new bill aims to increase shale oil production in the long term, but the short - term willingness to increase production is still restricted [26]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The overall demand is declining, and there is a risk of a weak peak season. As of the week ending July 11, the demand for refined oil products decreased. The demand for gasoline was 8.489 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 670,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 294,000 barrels per day; the demand for distillates was 3.423 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 245,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 162,000 barrels per day; the demand for jet fuel was 1.627 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 298,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 193,000 barrels per day. The total demand for petroleum products was 19.184 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.679 million barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 246,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points; the crude oil processing volume was 16.849 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 157,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 79,000 barrels per day [30][39]. - **China**: Consumption improved in June, but the demand outlook for the second half of the year is dull. In June, the crude oil processing volume was 62.245 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.927 million tons, mainly due to the significant increase in the operation rate of major refineries. In the second half of the year, the operation rate of domestic refineries is expected to remain at a relatively low level, affected by tax policy adjustments and the energy demand transformation [43]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: Crude oil inventory is being converted into refined oil inventory. The US crude oil inventory decreased slightly and is currently at a relatively low level in the past five years. As of the week ending July 11, the US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 422.162 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.859 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 18.064 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 402.703 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 300,000 barrels. The refined oil inventory increased overall, with the distillate inventory still at a five - year low [50][55]. - **OECD**: The demand was good in June, and the OECD inventory decreased slightly. In June 2025, the global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, the demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. The OECD inventory decreased to 2.796 billion barrels at the end of June, a month - on - month decrease of 15 million barrels [62]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The market has been oscillating with a volatility regression in the past three weeks. In the short term, the oil price is oscillating, and in the medium and long term, it is cautiously bullish. The improvement of macro and policy expectations may support the long - term economic improvement, and it may be better to look for opportunities to go long on dips in the crude oil market [67].