Core Insights - Shandong Laigang Yongfeng adjusted the ex-factory price of construction steel, increasing the rebar guidance price by 20 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton [1] Price Adjustments - The current execution price for Φ22mm HRB400 rebar is set at 3190 yuan/ton, with additional charges of 120 yuan/ton for 10mm and 12mm rebar [1] - On September 18, the spot price for HRB400 Φ16 rebar was reported at 3190 yuan/ton in Hangzhou, while Yonggang's Φ16 rebar was priced at 3180 yuan/ton in Shanghai [2] Market Trends - As of September 18, the weekly rebar production was 2.0645 million tons, a decrease of 54,800 tons or 2.59% from the previous week [3] - Rebar factory inventory stood at 1.6507 million tons, down by 15,600 tons or 0.94%, while social inventory was 4.8521 million tons, a reduction of 20,200 tons or 0.41% [3] - The apparent demand for rebar increased by 119,600 tons or 6.04%, reaching 2.1003 million tons [3] Futures Market - On September 18, the main rebar futures contract closed at 3147.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 0.25%, with a trading volume of 1,727,718 contracts [2] Supply Chain Insights - As of September 17, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease of 6,300 tons in rebar warehouse receipts, totaling 263,659 tons [4] Analyst Commentary - According to Ningzheng Futures research, the coal supply remains slow due to strict controls in major coal-producing areas, leading to a significant rise in coking coal prices followed by a correction [5] - The demand for steel during the "Golden September" period is recovering slowly, with high-priced resources seeing poor transaction volumes, limiting the potential for price increases [5] - Despite macroeconomic positive news, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic policies promoting environmental limits, steel prices are expected to enter a narrow adjustment phase [5]

Overall Summary of the Agricultural Products Sector - Cotton breaks through and rises, but weak downstream demand may limit the rebound space. Soybean meal drops significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. Palm oil continues to be weak with an expected increase in supply. Corn runs at a high level supported by multiple factors [1]. Variety Strategy Tracking Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton shows a third consecutive positive trend, breaking through and strengthening technically. Factors such as the upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting on tariffs, domestic macro - favorable policies, low imported cotton volume, and decreased port inventory support the rebound. However, weak downstream demand after the consumption peak season may resist the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 12875 and resistance at 13000 [1][2]. Soybean Meal - The main 2509 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls sharply, continuing the downward trend. The increasing national oil mill压榨量 strengthens the expectation of loose supply, pressuring the futures price. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2914 [3]. Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil first rises then falls, with a continuous decline. The expected increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the increase in China's procurement volume suppress the price. The technical situation remains weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7944 [5]. Sugar - The main 2509 contract of sugar rebounds, boosted by short - covering. The strong production and sales data in the domestic sugar market provide upward momentum. However, the technical weakness has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions and observe whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average resistance, with support at 5808 and resistance at 5859 [8]. Soybean No.1 - The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 continues to decline. The stable price of inland soybeans, light market trading, increasing imported soybean supply, and weak downstream demand suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell, with support at 4138 and resistance at 4188 [9][11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil rises then falls, with a volatile market. The improvement of soybean supply and the increase in oil mill operating rate will lead to an increase in supply and inventory, limiting the upward space. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 7752 and resistance at 7806 [12]. Corn - The main 2507 contract of corn oscillates and closes positively, running at a high level. Factors such as the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain, strong willingness of traders to hold and support prices, the linkage between wheat and corn prices, and the intention of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory support the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2387 [14]. Live Pigs - The 2509 contract of live pigs first declines then rises, with a volatile trend and a downward trend remaining. High inventory in the breeding end, increased planned slaughter volume in May, and weak demand after the May Day holiday suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell at high prices, with support at 13820 and resistance at 14000 [17]. Eggs - The main 2506 contract of eggs first rises then falls, with a continuous downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow elimination of old hens, and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to sufficient supply and slow inventory digestion. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2875 and resistance at 2900 [20]. Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds slightly but remains weak. The slowdown in post - holiday sales, high - level long - liquidation on the futures market, and technical weakness continue. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss set, with support at 7765 and resistance at 7864 [21][23].