Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military base in Qatar, and its implications on oil prices and market sentiment. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as stated by U.S. President Trump, has led to a significant decrease in geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market, resulting in a drop in oil prices and a rise in U.S. stock indices [1][2][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 5.65% in the overnight session following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which is expected to reduce geopolitical risk [2][11]. - The OPEC+ group may accelerate its production increase plans by about a year, responding to the current market conditions [2][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have retreated due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is influenced by inflation data and ongoing trade uncertainties [3][17]. - Despite long-term support for gold prices, the current high levels have led to hesitation in upward movement, while silver has shown limited upward momentum after a recent rally [3][17]. Coal and Coke - Coal production is recovering as some previously halted mines resume operations, leading to improved market conditions with reduced auction prices and lower overall transaction failure rates [4][23]. - The coke market is experiencing a seasonal decline in iron production, and while there is no immediate reversal in trends, the situation remains volatile due to fluctuating energy prices [4][23]. Industry News - As of the end of May, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US economic and trade high-level talks reached important consensus, which will have a significant impact on the global economic situation and market sentiment [1]. - The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects concerns about economic prospects, unemployment, and inflation, posing uncertainties to the market [1][3]. - China's continuous release of policy incentives demonstrates its determination and ability to address economic pressures, adding stability to the global economy [1]. - For major investment varieties: - Crude oil prices are expected to be affected by trade agreements and supply - demand dynamics, with attention on sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - Gold may enter a correction phase in the short - term but remains strong overall due to geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand [3][20]. - Stock index futures are likely to break upward due to policy incentives and low valuation levels, and option strategies can be used to capture trends [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks from May 10th to 11th in Geneva were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [6]. - **Domestic News**: 27 Chinese cities had a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan in 2024, and most of them had a GDP growth rate of over 5.4% in Q1 [7]. - **Industry News**: In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the export of new energy passenger cars was 189,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The table shows the daily returns of various overseas market products from May 8th to May 9th, including the US S&P 500, German DAX Index, etc., with specific price changes and percentage changes [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices fell slightly. The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. Policy incentives and Sino - US tariff negotiations are expected to boost the market, and stock index futures are bullish, while option strategies can be used [4][5][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut increased market liquidity. External factors and seasonal changes affected the economy. Short - term treasury bond futures are supported, while long - term ones may fluctuate more [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose due to the "breakthrough" in the UK - US trade agreement. China's crude oil imports increased slightly, and the number of US online drilling oil wells decreased [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, while the overall methanol plant's开工 rate increased. Coastal inventory was at a low level, and imports were expected to increase. Methanol is short - term bullish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber's trend was volatile. Domestic and Thai rubber production areas were opening for harvest. Inventory was increasing, and tariff policies affected the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market was weak. Consumption declined, but cost fluctuations provided some support. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of Sino - US talks [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures were weak. Their inventories were under pressure, and the de - stocking process would take time [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell after rising due to the easing of tariffs. The Fed's wait - and - see attitude and economic data were key factors. Gold may enter a correction but remains strong overall [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. Low processing fees and stable downstream demand affected the market. Copper prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and exchange rates [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. Processing fees increased, and domestic demand was stable. The market expected better supply. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose at night. Overseas tariff policies were unstable, and domestic monetary policy was loose. The market was expected to be weakly volatile [23]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose at night. Tight supply in Indonesia and tariff policies affected prices. Nickel prices may fluctuate in a wide range [24][25]. - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The cost of coking coal decreased, and the supply increased. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and there was an expectation of a price cut. Attention should be paid to support levels [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oils were weakly volatile at night, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. Supply and demand dynamics and Sino - US relations affected the market [27]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Bean meal prices were weak at night. US soybean exports were under pressure, and domestic supply was expected to increase [28]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices rose this week. High prices squeezed profits, and there was an expectation of reserve auctions. The market entered a shock phase [29]. - **Cotton**: Cotton demand was weak after the May Day holiday. New cotton planting in Xinjiang was basically completed. The market was in a shock phase, waiting for new demand channels [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract fell on Friday. SCFI European line prices decreased. Supply was excessive, and the market was expected to be in a shock pattern [31][32].

Overall Summary of the Agricultural Products Sector - Cotton breaks through and rises, but weak downstream demand may limit the rebound space. Soybean meal drops significantly, and the supply is expected to increase. Palm oil continues to be weak with an expected increase in supply. Corn runs at a high level supported by multiple factors [1]. Variety Strategy Tracking Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton shows a third consecutive positive trend, breaking through and strengthening technically. Factors such as the upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting on tariffs, domestic macro - favorable policies, low imported cotton volume, and decreased port inventory support the rebound. However, weak downstream demand after the consumption peak season may resist the rebound. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 12875 and resistance at 13000 [1][2]. Soybean Meal - The main 2509 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls sharply, continuing the downward trend. The increasing national oil mill压榨量 strengthens the expectation of loose supply, pressuring the futures price. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2880 and resistance at 2914 [3]. Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil first rises then falls, with a continuous decline. The expected increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the increase in China's procurement volume suppress the price. The technical situation remains weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 7812 and resistance at 7944 [5]. Sugar - The main 2509 contract of sugar rebounds, boosted by short - covering. The strong production and sales data in the domestic sugar market provide upward momentum. However, the technical weakness has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold short positions and observe whether it can break through the 5 - day moving average resistance, with support at 5808 and resistance at 5859 [8]. Soybean No.1 - The main 2507 contract of soybean No.1 continues to decline. The stable price of inland soybeans, light market trading, increasing imported soybean supply, and weak downstream demand suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell, with support at 4138 and resistance at 4188 [9][11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil rises then falls, with a volatile market. The improvement of soybean supply and the increase in oil mill operating rate will lead to an increase in supply and inventory, limiting the upward space. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 7752 and resistance at 7806 [12]. Corn - The main 2507 contract of corn oscillates and closes positively, running at a high level. Factors such as the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain, strong willingness of traders to hold and support prices, the linkage between wheat and corn prices, and the intention of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory support the price. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 2370 and resistance at 2387 [14]. Live Pigs - The 2509 contract of live pigs first declines then rises, with a volatile trend and a downward trend remaining. High inventory in the breeding end, increased planned slaughter volume in May, and weak demand after the May Day holiday suppress the price. The strategy is to lightly short - sell at high prices, with support at 13820 and resistance at 14000 [17]. Eggs - The main 2506 contract of eggs first rises then falls, with a continuous downward trend. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow elimination of old hens, and weak demand after the May Day holiday lead to sufficient supply and slow inventory digestion. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 2875 and resistance at 2900 [20]. Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds slightly but remains weak. The slowdown in post - holiday sales, high - level long - liquidation on the futures market, and technical weakness continue. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss set, with support at 7765 and resistance at 7864 [21][23].