Core Insights - The report highlights the contradiction faced during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, where carbon reduction pressures are increasing while the growth rate of new energy installations is slowing down. The introduction of a national capacity price policy is expected to open up space for new energy installations and support high-yield investment options for power companies during the "14th Five-Year Plan" investment intensity [5][6][9]. Group 1: Energy Storage Industry - The national capacity price policy, issued on January 30, 2026, aims to establish a mechanism that balances power supply stability, green energy transformation, and efficient resource allocation. This policy is expected to support the development of adjustable power sources and enhance the installation of new energy [7][9]. - The report estimates that the demand for energy storage will show a high growth trend, with new energy storage installations expected to reach 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 52% and 73% respectively [8][9]. - The capacity price policy is seen as the final piece needed for energy storage development, potentially increasing project returns from approximately 6.5% to over 8% under current subsidy conditions. This is expected to stimulate investment interest from state-owned enterprises in new energy storage projects [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading companies involved in energy storage integration and upstream battery cells, recommending firms such as Sungrow Power Supply, Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, CATL, and Eve Energy. It also advises monitoring companies like Haisum, Sungrow Electric, Canadian Solar, and Penghui Energy [9].

Core Insights - The report introduces a macro factor assetization framework for timing strategies in government bond futures, demonstrating robust return characteristics and strong risk resistance through backtesting [1][2]. Group 1: Macro Real-Time (PIT) Indicator Library Construction - The macro factor assetization strategy utilizes real-time macro data, contrasting with traditional models that lag by 1-2 months, by employing a precise macroeconomic calendar to obtain macro data disclosure dates and times [4][19]. - The PIT macro indicators are designed across four dimensions: economic growth, inflation, monetary credit policy, and central bank open market operations, creating a macro factor library [4][19]. Group 2: Strategy Construction and Backtesting - The strategy framework consists of three main steps: macro factor construction, macro trading logic net value realization, and dynamic factor selection and combination [4][29]. - The model achieved a post-fee Sharpe ratio of approximately 1.3 and a Calmar ratio of about 1.1, indicating strong performance despite challenges in capturing significant excess returns during the bull market from 2021 to 2024 [4][29]. - The model's performance is relatively insensitive to the lag parameter n, with optimal settings found between 10 to 30 minutes, leading to a standardized approach of a 10-minute lag for all signals [4][29]. Group 3: Factor Dynamic Selection and Combination - The macro factors are categorized into four types: economic growth, inflation, monetary credit, and open market operations, with each factor's performance analyzed for effective timing signals [4][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of dynamic factor selection to enhance model performance, utilizing momentum factor selection methods to optimize the factor pool [4][29][56]. - The empirical results indicate that the combined signals from multiple factors significantly improve timing effectiveness compared to single-factor performance [4][29][74].