光伏产业链报价上涨，固态电池情绪回暖 20250721 摘要 光伏行业受益于反内卷政策，硅料价格已从底部上涨至 42,000-49,000 元/吨，产能退出加速，预计 9 月底前通过收并购将取得进一步进展。季 节性需求提升有望缓解库存压力，支架（中信博）和银浆（江纳巨合） 等差异化标的受益于大单和业务拓展。 储能市场情绪随光伏改善，甘肃等省份出台容量电价政策，增强了国内 商业模式改善预期。2025 年上半年国内新增装机规模达 42.6GWh，同 比增长约 27-28%，独立储能招标占比达 98.18%，下半年环比上半年 仍有提升空间。 下半年储能板块预期差较大，阳光电源和海博股份被重点推荐。阳光电 源预计业绩超预期，估值修复清晰；海博股份发货情况良好。欧洲和澳 洲补贴修复需求，户用储能公司如爱罗、派能科技、锦浪科技等二季度 业绩向好。 固态电池产业进展超预期，带动三元正极、电解液新技术以及锂电设备 相关标的。PCB 材料行情对铜箔、隔膜等原材料带动明显，铜箔涨幅尤 为显著。机器人领域，浙江荣泰、科达利等公司股价表现突出。 Q&A 当前电信板块的整体表现如何？ 在过去两周内，锂电和电机相关板块表现较强，而风电板 ...

整体观点： 1、光伏：根据硅业分会数据：本周多晶硅复投料成交区间4-4.9万元/吨；硅片价格涨幅较大，N型G10L单晶硅 片成交均价1.05元/片，环比上周+22.09%。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 3、固态电池：看好固态电池后续行情，近两周板块走势较弱主要在于前期涨幅较高；1）重点关注全固态电池 前、中道设备以及硫化锂等差异性环节，在锂电大厂启动新招标后有望充分受益；2）重点关注半固态电池或 极片、电解质改性的进展，液态或半固态电池亦可采用较多全固态电池工艺，且性能也有较好提升、落地更 快，预期差也较大。 4、储能：短期甘肃电化学大储容量电价政策出台是对容量租赁费用逐步取消所带来影响的对冲，有利于独立 储能IRR向好，预计其他部分省份也会效仿；中期大 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption - The growth in electricity consumption this year reflects the resilience and vitality of the national economy, indicating stable economic operations despite pressures [1][2] - From January to May, the total electricity consumption reached 3.97 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, and monthly growth rates exceeding 4% in recent months [1][2] - The report forecasts a 5% to 6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption by 2025, with an overall balance in supply and demand expected [1][2] Group 2: Sectoral Electricity Consumption - In the first five months, the primary industry consumed 54.3 billion kWh, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 9.6%, driven by improvements in agricultural infrastructure [2] - The secondary industry consumed 2.59 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, while high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a growth of 3.3% [2] - The tertiary industry consumed 740.6 billion kWh, with a notable year-on-year increase of 6.8%, particularly in the information technology and digital economy sectors [2] Group 3: Electricity Market Development - The national unified electricity market is expected to be preliminarily established by 2025, with significant progress in market construction and resource allocation [4][5] - From January to May, market-based electricity transactions reached 2.45 trillion kWh, accounting for 61.8% of total electricity consumption, with expectations to exceed 6 trillion kWh for the year [4] - The construction of provincial electricity spot markets and cross-regional trading has accelerated, enhancing the overall market framework [4][5] Group 4: Capacity Pricing Policy - The capacity pricing policy for coal-fired power plants has been implemented since 2024, providing stable revenue sources and encouraging investment in efficient coal power generation [6][7] - The average fixed cost recovery for coal power plants is estimated at 92 yuan per kW per year, with a total capacity electricity fee of 95 billion yuan expected in 2024 [6] - Recommendations for optimizing the capacity pricing policy include adjusting cost recovery ratios and clarifying fee-sharing mechanisms for cross-regional electricity transmission [6][7]