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穿越不确定性迷雾 国际货币政策协调机制如何更进一步
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-08-08 07:59
新加坡金融管理局副行长梁新松也持相似观点。他谈到,近年来,主要经济体的政策溢出效应正显 著影响全球经济格局,其货币政策调整可能引发中小国家资本市场波动,而央行间的协作(如汇率干 预、政策沟通)能有效缓解汇率剧烈震荡。 梁新松还提到,在实践中全球货币政策协调面临多重现实阻碍。各国经济目标、政治逻辑及货币周 期的差异化难以调和,美国关税政策的不确定性更激化了这一矛盾。 意大利经济与财政部原部长乔瓦尼·物里亚(Giovanni TRIA)也提到了美国关税政策的影响。他谈 到,该政策对原有全球经济秩序形成冲击,加剧全球经济的不确定性与混乱,引发汇率剧烈波动,并削 弱市场对美元与美债的信心,危及货币政策与金融市场的稳定性,而维持金融市场稳定是当务之急。 "当前全球金融体系正处于关键转折期,美国新保护主义举措或颠覆现有格局。"乔瓦尼·物里亚解 释道,作为全球储备货币,美元赋予美国无限融资填补内外债的特权,但特朗普政府的关税政策不仅无 法解决美国赤字问题、恢复制造业就业,还致使美元短期走弱,引发市场对美元、美债稳定性乃至美国 法律体系信心的下降。由于资本流动受不确定性驱动,一旦市场对美元和美债信心崩塌,全球金融不稳 定将迅 ...
打破 “各自为政”!大咖热议货币政策协同
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-06-19 13:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urgent need for global monetary policy coordination in the context of rising inflation, high debt, and increasing international trade frictions, which are reshaping global supply chains and economic growth dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges in Global Monetary Policy Coordination - Significant differences in macroeconomic conditions among countries lead to a "self-governing" approach to monetary policy, complicating unified macroeconomic control [2]. - The spillover effects of major economies' monetary policies are increasingly impacting global economic patterns, with potential for rapid transmission through financial crises [2][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies exacerbates global economic instability, affecting confidence in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury securities [3]. Group 2: The Role of Alternative Currencies and Market Integration - In light of declining confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities, there is a call to develop alternative currency support systems, with China’s role being particularly highlighted [4]. - Europe is urged to address its strategic vulnerabilities by creating a more integrated market, such as a unified European debt market, to provide reliable investment alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Central Bank Policies - Central banks must consider multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, climate change, and technological advancements, which pose significant challenges to their policy objectives [5][6]. - The need for enhanced communication and coordination among central banks is emphasized to stabilize inflation expectations and address emerging risks [6]. Group 4: Institutional Framework for Coordination - There is a lack of a formal institution to coordinate global macroeconomic or monetary policies, with existing platforms like the IMF facing limitations in their decision-making processes [7]. - Suggestions include enhancing the G20's mechanisms and possibly establishing a dedicated monetary policy department to improve the effectiveness of global policy coordination [7].