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黑色建材日报:双焦显著去库,期货价格反弹。钢材:淡季表需稳定,成本支撑仍在-20250627
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 05:09
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Neutral [3][4] - Coking coal: Bullish with fluctuations [7] - Coke: Neutral with fluctuations [7] - Other products: No specific ratings provided 2. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile due to cost support and approaching domestic macro - policy window periods, with attention on off - season demand and inventory performance [1] - Iron ore shows a long - term supply - demand loosening pattern, but short - term price is boosted by coking coal destocking and improved market sentiment [3] - Coking coal prices are expected to be bullish with fluctuations in the short term, and coke prices will be neutral with fluctuations, with attention on post - safety - month production resumption and inventory changes [6][7] - Thermal coal prices will rise slightly in the short term due to supply contraction and expected demand increase, while the medium - to - long - term supply is still loose [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 2973 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract at 3103 yuan/ton. Steel inventory destocking paused except for rebar, and apparent demand slightly increased. Rebar production continued to rise this week with slight inventory destocking and stable off - season demand. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased month - on - month, with high production, facing challenges in exports and domestic consumption. Overall, cost support remains due to over - decline in coking coal and coke and safety - month inspections, and steel prices will remain volatile [1] - Strategy: No strategies are recommended for unilateral, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price rose slightly. The main 2509 contract closed at 705.5 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. Spot prices at Tangshan ports increased slightly. Daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons, up 0.11 tons month - on - month. Total port iron ore trading volume was 87.2 tons, down 19.03%, and forward - contract trading volume was 130.6 tons, up 94.93%. Overall, supply is increasing during the shipping peak season, demand is slightly rising, and port inventory is slightly accumulating. In the short term, the price is boosted by coking coal destocking, while in the long term, the supply - demand is loose [3] - Strategy: A neutral stance is recommended for unilateral trading, and no strategies for other types [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, black - series products generally rose, with coking coal futures rising significantly. Coke inventory decreased as steel mills and coking plants increased restocking, and speculative demand also increased. Coking coal prices in northern main - producing areas rose steadily. Port prices were stable with little trading. Imported Mongolian coal prices rebounded due to supply decline, and some downstream coke enterprises increased purchases. Coke fundamentals are improving, and coking coal fundamentals are gradually getting better with supply decline and demand increase [5][6] - Strategy: Coking coal is expected to be bullish with fluctuations, and coke will be neutral with fluctuations. No strategies for other types [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the producing areas, coal prices continued to rise steadily. Supply tightened as small and medium - sized mines completed monthly production tasks and stopped or reduced production. Metallurgical and chemical procurement demand was stable, and restocking demand was released. Port inventory decreased significantly, and market sentiment was positive. Import coal prices were stable, with medium - and low - calorie coal being cost - effective [8] - Strategy: No strategies are recommended [9]