Core Insights - Since 2025, the global tin market has exhibited characteristics of "high volatility and long-term improvement" due to supply disruptions, demand differentiation, and macro policy adjustments [1] - Tin's strategic value continues to be highlighted as a key material in high-end manufacturing sectors such as semiconductor packaging and new energy [1] Supply Side - The global tin supply is characterized by "marginal easing but overall tightness," with the main increase coming from the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar [4] - After implementing a resumption plan, imports of tin from Myanmar to China have remained stable, alleviating some raw material shortages for smelters [4] - Domestic refined tin production is expected to see a month-on-month increase due to the recovery of large smelting plants in Yunnan, although overall production improvement may be limited due to tight supply conditions [4] Demand Side - There is a clear differentiation in demand, with "traditional weakness and emerging strength" [6] - Traditional consumption areas are under pressure, with domestic mobile phone shipments declining slightly from January to August, leading to low inventory replenishment intentions among soldering material companies [6] - However, robust demand from new energy vehicles and lithium batteries is expected to maintain positive growth in overall tin demand, gradually offsetting the decline in traditional consumption [6] - Low inventory levels further strengthen price support, with global visible tin inventory at a relatively low median level [6] Macro Environment - The macro environment provides significant support for the tin market, with the Federal Reserve having cut interest rates twice this year, and market attention on potential further cuts in December [6] - The consensus reached in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated uncertainties arising from global trade friction [6] - A joint plan from eight departments in China has identified tin as a key strategic resource for support, with ongoing policy benefits being released [6] Market Outlook - The current tin market is in a phase of "supply tightness improvement, demand structure upgrade, and favorable macro environment" [6] - In the short term, the supply tightness from Myanmar's resumption and traditional demand weakness will create a tug-of-war, with tin prices expected to fluctuate between 270,000 to 310,000 yuan per ton [6] - Key factors to monitor include the progress of Myanmar's resumption, actual downstream consumption, and changes in domestic and international macro policies [6]