来源：市场资讯 2025年以来，全球锡市在供应扰动、需求分化与宏观政策调整的多重作用下，呈现出"高位震荡、长期 向好"的运行特征。作为半导体封装、新能源等高端制造领域的关键材料，锡的战略价值持续凸显，其 市场走势既受制于短期供需博弈，更被全球产业升级与宏观流动性环境深度重塑。 印尼方面，尽管打击非法采矿政策冲击部分中小产能，受此影响，印尼贸易部数据显示，印尼10月精炼 锡出口量较去年同期减少53.89%，但头部炼厂多自有正规矿，此次整顿或对印尼锡产量影响不大，后 续印尼精锡出口将逐步恢复。 从供应端看，全球锡矿供应呈现"边际宽松但总量偏紧"的格局。核心增量来自缅甸佤邦锡矿复产，自推 出复采方案后，我国自缅甸锡矿进口量维持稳定，一定程度上缓解了冶炼厂的原料短缺压力，叠加云南 大型冶炼厂完成检修恢复生产，国内精炼锡产量有望迎来环比增长。不过，在整体锡矿偏紧背景下，精 炼锡产量或改善有限。 宏观环境为锡市提供重要托底支撑。全球层面，截至发稿日年内美联储已降息2次，当前市场关注12月 是否进一步降息，而中美经贸磋商达成共识则缓解了全球贸易摩擦带来的不确定性。国内方面，八部门 联合印发的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案(2 ...

Core Insights - The export performance of China's "new three items" (electric passenger vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells) shows strong structural growth in the first ten months of the year, particularly in electric vehicles and lithium batteries, indicating China's increasing global competitiveness in the renewable energy sector amid rising international demand [1][2] Group 1: Export Data - From January to October, the export amounts for electric passenger vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells reached 390.12552 billion, 446.74110 billion, and 168.21841 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.6%, 27.5%, and a decline of 11.9% for solar cells [1] - In October alone, the export volumes for these items were 374,995 units, 40,498 million units, and 128,274 million units, showing year-on-year growth rates of 69.3%, 17.2%, and 73.1% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in solar cell export value is attributed to intensified competition in the global photovoltaic market and fluctuations in raw material prices, leading to a decrease in unit prices; however, the export quantity remains robust, indicating strong global demand for China's solar products [2] - Emerging sectors beyond the traditional "new three items" are contributing to foreign trade growth, including high-end equipment and robotics, as well as new business models like cross-border e-commerce and service trade [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The export of products such as printed circuits and integrated circuits benefits from China's complete electronic information industry chain, ensuring production capacity; the global digital transformation is driving demand for electronic components and agricultural machinery, aligning with the modernization needs of developing countries [3] - High-end manufacturing is gaining scale advantages due to China's comprehensive industrial system and resilient supply chains, coupled with the deep integration of digital technology and manufacturing, facilitating rapid iteration and export of high-tech, high-value-added products [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The diversification of foreign trade growth is no longer reliant on a single category, forming a growth matrix across multiple fields such as electronic information and high-end equipment, effectively mitigating risks from industry fluctuations [4] - The export of technology-intensive products signifies a shift in China's foreign trade from "scale expansion" to "technology empowerment," enhancing the sustainability of trade growth through the synergy of upstream and downstream products [4] - Recommendations for future actions include precise policy support, increased investment in technological innovation, and fostering international cooperation to enhance global market share and sustain new trade momentum [4]