12月30日，2025年，加密货币市场正处于一个关键的十字路口，关于"四年周期"是否失效的争论已白热 化。FXGT 认为，随着比特币从边缘资产向全球宏观避险资产演变，其运行逻辑已经发生了本质性的范 式转移。传统的减半效应虽然在心理层面依然存在，但其对市场供需关系的绝对统治力正逐渐被更复杂 的宏观金融变量所稀释。 宏观政策的松绑与全球流动性的扩张正成为行情的新引擎。Grayscale 的数据显示，由于法定货币贬值 压力持续，比特币的宏观避险属性日益凸显。当渣打银行等传统金融巨头开始修正其 2026 年的盈利预 期并弃用周期模型时，这标志着市场正从"减半驱动"转向"宏观驱动"。在这种背景下，比特币的走势将 更多地受制于利率决策和全球信用周期的波动。 在对市场资金流向的深度剖析中，FXGT 发现，机构化进程是打破周期的首要推手。正如 Ruck 等分析 师所表示，现货 ETF 带来的持续性买盘为市场提供了深厚的流动性垫层，这种结构性资金注入与以往 散户主导的"暴涨暴跌"截然不同。这种变化不仅减弱了峰值后的回撤幅度，也让原本清晰的周期边界变 得模糊。 宏观政策的松绑与全球流动性的扩张正成为行情的新引擎。Grayscal ...

加密市场的四年周期，是否仍然存在？ 为此，我们特别邀请了七位加密领域资深从业者，进行了一场跨越乐观与谨慎、牛市与熊市预判的对 话。他们分别是： Jason｜NDV 基金创始人： 此前于阿里巴巴创始人 Joe Tsai（蔡崇信）的家族办公室负责中国投资，一二级均涉足。投资风格偏向 于结合一级市场的严谨与二级市场的流动性。其一期基金在 23 个月内实现了约 275%的绝对回报，已 完全退出，且作为一个开放式基金做到了所有投资人都实现盈利。 在比特币诞生后的十八年内，"四年周期"论几乎成了加密货币市场的信仰基石。比特币减半、供应收 缩、价格上涨、山寨季接力，这套叙事不仅解释了历史上的多轮牛熊切换，也深刻影响着投资者的仓位 管理、项目方的融资节奏，甚至整个行业对"时间"的理解方式。 然而，2024 年 4 月减半后，比特币仅从 6 万美元涨至 12.6 万美元的历史高点，涨幅远低于前几轮，山 寨币更是一片疲软，宏观流动性与政策变量反而成为市场更敏感的锚点。尤其是在现货 ETF、机构资 金与传统金融工具大规模入场之后，一个问题被反复讨论： Ye Su｜ArkStream Capital 创始合伙人： 过去八年累计投资了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trend of stablecoins is highlighted, with Hong Kong's new stablecoin regulations set to take effect on August 1, 2023, allowing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to start accepting license applications [1][27]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Financial Services and Treasury Bureau announced that the stablecoin regulations will officially come into effect on August 1, 2023, marking a significant regulatory framework for stablecoins [1][27]. - As of June 30, 2023, there are 11 licensed compliant virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong, including prominent institutions like OSL and HashKey [3]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) mandates that investors can only trade virtual assets on licensed platforms [2]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The introduction of compliant trading channels is expected to provide safer and more transparent avenues for investors to engage in virtual asset trading [8]. - The market for virtual currency financial products is diversifying, with direct trading of digital currencies and derivatives like spot and futures ETFs becoming available [16][18]. - The total asset management scale of spot ETFs in Hong Kong has exceeded 3.8 billion HKD as of late May 2023, indicating growing investor interest [20]. Group 3: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The global stablecoin issuance has surpassed 235 billion USD, with Tether's USDT being the first mainstream stablecoin, currently holding a market share of nearly two-thirds [27]. - Stablecoins are seen as pivotal in reshaping the global payment landscape, presenting significant market opportunities [28]. - Investment strategies for stablecoins differ from volatile cryptocurrencies, focusing on stable returns through decentralized lending platforms and arbitrage opportunities [29]. Group 4: Future Projections - The digital asset market in Hong Kong is projected to grow from 112 billion HKD in 2024 to over 150 billion HKD in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 35% [33]. - The global cryptocurrency spot market capitalization reached 3.26 trillion USD as of June 27, 2025, indicating substantial growth potential for the Hong Kong market [34].