关于市场恢复的速度，目前机构投资者的预期普遍偏向审慎乐观。NCE 平台表示，尽管现货 ETF 的流 入情况有所改善，但在经历大幅回撤后，市场情绪的修复通常需要三到六个月的"冷静期"。V 型反转的 概率在当前环境下较低，更多的将是基于宽幅区间的结构性整理。这种行情虽然缺乏爆发力，但对于长 期投资者而言，却是降低持仓成本、进行战略性配置的良机。 综上所述，数字资产市场正处于从"寒冬"向"早春"过渡的阵痛期。投资者应保持耐心，密切关注 ETF 的流入规模以及全球宏观政策对风险资产定价的影响。随着抛售压力的逐步出清，市场的重心将缓慢上 移。在 2026 年余下的时间里，这种横盘整理将持续修复投资者的信心，直至新的利好催化剂出现。 NCE 平台建议，在震荡市中应重点关注 60000 美元关口的支撑力度，这是判断长期牛市趋势是否完好 的重要参考。 技术指标层面也释放出了明显的见底信号。NCE 平台认为，比特币的历史周线 RSI（相对强弱指数） 已进入极度超卖区域，这通常预示着激进的卖压正处于消退边缘。虽然市场仍可能反复测试 62000 美元 至 65000 美元的支撑区间，但只要全球宏观经济环境不发生系统性崩溃，这种震荡 ...

责任编辑：陈平 2月12日，在比特币经历了一场惊心动魄的"压力测试"后，尽管 BTC 从 60130 美元的近期低点迅速反弹 14%，并一度触及 72000 美元关口，但市场头部的专业交易员尚未表现出明确的看涨转向。Vatee 表 示，这种"反弹而不加仓"的矛盾现象，正揭示了当前宏观流动性环境下的深层不确定性。 2月12日，在比特币经历了一场惊心动魄的"压力测试"后，尽管 BTC 从 60130 美元的近期低点迅速反弹 14%，并一度触及 72000 美元关口，但市场头部的专业交易员尚未表现出明确的看涨转向。Vatee 表 示，这种"反弹而不加仓"的矛盾现象，正揭示了当前宏观流动性环境下的深层不确定性。 针对衍生品市场的变动，近期杠杆需求的显著下滑是市场进入冷静期的重要标志。数据显示，币安的多 空比指标已触及 30 天低点，从 1.93 快速回落至 1.20；而 OKX 在经历了一场高达 10 亿美元的强制清算 潮后，其多空比例也从 4.3 的极值骤降至 1.7。Vatee 表示，这种数据的剧烈波动更多源于此前过度杠杆 的系统性出清，而非投资者主动看空。从长远来看，这种去杠杆化过程虽然痛苦，却为市场构建了一个 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced an unexpected decline of over 10% in the past month, contrasting with a more than 12% increase in gold prices and a steady rise in the S&P 500 index, leading to widespread discussion about its market behavior [1][3] - ZFX Shanhai Securities indicates that Bitcoin is undergoing a phenomenon termed "speculative erosion," where speculative capital that previously flowed into the crypto market is being diverted to online sports betting, prediction markets, and zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options, driven by a societal craving for instant gratification [1][2] Market Dynamics - The current market environment is increasingly favoring a "winner-takes-all" and rapid stimulation model, rather than long-term investment strategies that require patience [1][2] - Historical data shows that Bitcoin has strong long-term holding value, with investors holding for over five years never experiencing actual losses; however, in a market that prioritizes instant feedback, Bitcoin is perceived as a "slow asset" [1][2] Capital Flow and Investment Behavior - The preference for quick returns has led to marginal capital being absorbed by fast-paced platforms that, while offering lower expected returns, provide continuous engagement, thereby diminishing Bitcoin's explosive potential in speculative cycles [4] - Even anticipated spot ETFs struggle to gain traction under these behavioral constraints, as assets that do not provide short-term emotional closure find it difficult to compete in the increasingly fierce "attention economy" [2][4] Future Outlook - The competitive landscape poses significant short-term challenges for Bitcoin, despite its long-term value logic remaining intact; investors must acknowledge the structural changes in the flow of speculative funds [2][4] - In a context where capital is increasingly drawn to fast-paced, high-reaction markets, Bitcoin needs to find new narratives to reignite market sentiment; otherwise, its liquidity may continue to face marginalization challenges in the absence of instant feedback stimuli [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant sell-off over the weekend, with Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 to its lowest level since April of the previous year, continuing a month-long downward trend. This sell-off was triggered by the nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, negatively impacting both cryptocurrencies and precious metals like gold and silver, as market bets on dollar depreciation began to unravel [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell sharply, reaching a low of $75,709.88, with a one-day drop of 10% [1]. - Ethereum and Solana saw even steeper declines, with drops of 17% and over 17%, respectively [1]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by approximately $111 billion within 24 hours [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sell-off occurred in a context of thin liquidity and limited buying interest, leading to a total decline of over 30% for Bitcoin [3]. - Approximately $1.6 billion in long and short positions were liquidated, primarily in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with most liquidations happening in the last four hours [4][3]. - Retail investor interest is reported to be extremely low, with trading volumes expected to remain subdued for the next one to two quarters [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran may also influence Bitcoin prices, as recent events have raised concerns in the market [9]. - Delays in new regulatory frameworks for the cryptocurrency industry have further weakened interest in digital assets, as the Senate committee shifted focus away from cryptocurrency legislation [9]. - Despite Waller's previous positive remarks about Bitcoin, his nomination appears to have reversed the upward momentum in both precious metals and cryptocurrencies [9]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver have regained favor among investors concerned about fiat currency, while Bitcoin has failed to attract significant inflows despite the recent surge in gold prices [7]. - The lack of buying interest highlights the challenges Bitcoin faces in its role within broader investment portfolios, as it struggles to serve as both a momentum trade and a hedge against currency depreciation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is at a critical juncture, with intense debate over whether the "four-year cycle" has become obsolete, as Bitcoin transitions from a fringe asset to a global macro hedge asset, fundamentally altering its operational logic [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The institutionalization process is identified as the primary driver breaking the cycle, with continuous buying from spot ETFs providing a deep liquidity cushion, contrasting sharply with the previous retail-driven "boom and bust" patterns [4]. - Macro policy easing and global liquidity expansion are emerging as new engines for market trends, with Grayscale data indicating that Bitcoin's macro hedge attributes are becoming more pronounced due to ongoing fiat currency devaluation pressures [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite the shift, there are still voices advocating for the cycle theory, with some institutions noting that the market's trajectory by the end of 2025 exhibits typical bear market characteristics, reflecting the complexity of market psychology [2][4]. - Long-term holders are engaging in preemptive selling based on memories of market trauma from 2021, which may suppress prices in the short term but does not necessarily indicate the long-term validity of the four-year logic [2][4]. Future Outlook - Investors are advised against blindly applying past halving schedules, as the rise of AI and strong performances from traditional safe-haven assets like gold indicate that competition for capital in the crypto market has entered a phase of both stock and flow [5]. - The cycle may not be broken but is being elongated and redefined, suggesting that future opportunities will be more hidden in value reassessments following market fluctuations [5]. - The year 2026 is highlighted as a critical window for validating the new order, necessitating a more inclusive analytical framework that prioritizes policy direction, institutional holding costs, and liquidity trends over halving timelines [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "four-year cycle" theory in the cryptocurrency market, which has been a foundational belief since Bitcoin's inception, is being questioned as macroeconomic factors and institutional involvement become more significant than the traditional supply-driven narratives [1][9][18]. Group 1: Four-Year Cycle Discussion - The "four-year cycle" is traditionally driven by Bitcoin's halving events, which reduce supply and influence price dynamics [8]. - Some experts argue that the cycle is now influenced more by political and liquidity cycles rather than just halving events, suggesting a shift in how market participants view Bitcoin's role as a macro asset [9][10]. - The consensus among experts is that while the four-year cycle had a strong supply basis in the past, it is now transitioning to a model influenced by market narratives and macroeconomic factors [11][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and ETF Impact - The current market's reduced price volatility and growth are attributed to diminishing marginal effects of halving events and the significant influx of institutional capital through ETFs [12][13]. - Experts note that the previous cycle was driven by retail liquidity, while the current cycle sees over $50 billion in ETF funds entering the market, leading to a more gradual price increase rather than explosive growth [12][13]. - The consensus is that the halving remains a relevant factor but is now secondary to institutional flows and macroeconomic conditions [13][14]. Group 3: Current Market Phase - There is a divergence in expert opinions regarding the current market phase, with some viewing it as a bear market's early stage, while others see it as a correction within a broader bull market [14][15][16]. - The current market is characterized by a technical bear phase, but macroeconomic conditions have not yet confirmed a full bear market [15][16]. - Many experts believe that as long as global liquidity continues to expand, the upward trend in crypto assets is likely to persist [16][17]. Group 4: Future Market Structure - The future of the crypto market may not follow traditional bull-bear cycles but could enter a prolonged period of upward movement with compressed bear markets, driven by institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors [19][20]. - Experts emphasize the importance of stablecoins and institutional investment as key drivers of future market growth, suggesting a shift towards a more integrated financial ecosystem [19][20]. - The market structure is evolving from a retail-driven model to one dominated by institutional investment, which may lead to different dynamics in asset price movements [24]. Group 5: Altcoin Season and Market Behavior - The absence of a traditional "altcoin season" in the current cycle is attributed to Bitcoin's dominance and a more selective investment approach by institutions [23]. - Experts suggest that while new altcoin seasons may emerge, they will likely focus on a few high-utility tokens rather than a broad-based rally [23][24]. - The market's structure has shifted from a retail-driven attention economy to an institution-driven performance economy, impacting how altcoins are perceived and valued [24]. Group 6: Positioning and Investment Strategies - Many experts have reduced their altcoin holdings and are focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting a defensive and long-term investment strategy [25][26]. - The consensus is to avoid leverage and frequent trading, emphasizing disciplined investment approaches in the current market environment [27]. - Some experts believe that while aggressive bottom-fishing may not be advisable, gradual accumulation during this period could be beneficial [27].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trend of stablecoins is highlighted, with Hong Kong's new stablecoin regulations set to take effect on August 1, 2023, allowing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to start accepting license applications [1][27]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Financial Services and Treasury Bureau announced that the stablecoin regulations will officially come into effect on August 1, 2023, marking a significant regulatory framework for stablecoins [1][27]. - As of June 30, 2023, there are 11 licensed compliant virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong, including prominent institutions like OSL and HashKey [3]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) mandates that investors can only trade virtual assets on licensed platforms [2]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The introduction of compliant trading channels is expected to provide safer and more transparent avenues for investors to engage in virtual asset trading [8]. - The market for virtual currency financial products is diversifying, with direct trading of digital currencies and derivatives like spot and futures ETFs becoming available [16][18]. - The total asset management scale of spot ETFs in Hong Kong has exceeded 3.8 billion HKD as of late May 2023, indicating growing investor interest [20]. Group 3: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The global stablecoin issuance has surpassed 235 billion USD, with Tether's USDT being the first mainstream stablecoin, currently holding a market share of nearly two-thirds [27]. - Stablecoins are seen as pivotal in reshaping the global payment landscape, presenting significant market opportunities [28]. - Investment strategies for stablecoins differ from volatile cryptocurrencies, focusing on stable returns through decentralized lending platforms and arbitrage opportunities [29]. Group 4: Future Projections - The digital asset market in Hong Kong is projected to grow from 112 billion HKD in 2024 to over 150 billion HKD in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 35% [33]. - The global cryptocurrency spot market capitalization reached 3.26 trillion USD as of June 27, 2025, indicating substantial growth potential for the Hong Kong market [34].