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《黑色》日报-20260108
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 02:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Black metals rose strongly, with coking coal hitting the daily limit and steel futures rising 80 - 90 yuan/ton, the largest daily increase since August. Steel continued to cut production and reduce inventory. Rebar maintained a large supply - demand gap and good de - stocking, while hot - rolled coil de - stocking was still slow. Apparent demand declined seasonally, and demand was weak. Production cuts supported steel prices, and raw materials were expected to drive steel prices up within a range. Rebar was expected to fluctuate in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore main contract rose significantly due to news - driven factors and a strong commodity market influenced by macro news. Spot prices followed the increase. Supply: global iron ore shipments declined this period, and future focus was on Southern Hemisphere weather. Demand: hot metal production increased slightly, and January's hot metal production was expected to rise slightly. The steel mill profit rate improved, and the hot - rolled coil inventory problem improved. Inventory: iron ore inventory was at a high level, while steel mill inventory remained low. Future inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. Iron ore was expected to shift from loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand, and prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in a high - level range, with a short - term reference range of 770 - 840 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures rose strongly. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on January 1st. The coke market was weakly stable. Supply: coke production declined due to pressure on coking profits. Demand: steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal production declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level. Inventory: overall inventory increased slightly. Coking coal futures rose strongly, with the main contract hitting the daily limit. Supply: coal mine production increased slightly, but sales were poor, and inventory accumulated. Import coal inventory continued to accumulate, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated downward. Demand: steel mill maintenance decreased, hot metal production was stable with a slight increase, and coking profits declined. Inventory: overall inventory increased slightly. Policy - related information needed verification. For both, unilateral trading was advised to wait for policy verification, and the arbitrage strategy was to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: The main contract continued to rise, driven by macro news and cost - side coal news. Supply: production increased slightly last week and was expected to continue to grow. Demand: hot metal production was expected to increase slightly in January, and the demand from the metal iron and magnesium industries supported ferrosilicon. Cost: power prices were stable or slightly decreased, and cost differences among regions widened. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the 5600 - 6300 range. Ferromanganese: Prices fluctuated upward, affected by macro news. The news of increased export tariffs on South African manganese ore was false. Supply: production was basically flat, and the reduction amplitude continued to narrow. Demand: hot metal production was expected to increase slightly, supporting ferromanganese demand. Cost: manganese ore prices were stable, providing strong support. The market was in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. Prices were expected to fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5800 - 6400 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions all increased. For example, rebar spot prices in East China rose from 3280 to 3320 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract prices rose from 3248 to 3332 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices rose by 50 to 2980 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, such as in East China, where it decreased from - 20 to - 56 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production remained at 226.5 tons. The production of five major steel products increased by 18.4 to 815.2 tons, with a growth rate of 2.3%. Rebar production increased by 3.8 to 188.2 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 11.0 to 304.5 tons [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 25.8 to 1232.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 12.2 to 422.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.3 to 371.0 tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 2.9 to 12.5 tons, a growth rate of 29.7%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 7.4 to 841.0 tons, a growth rate of 0.9%. The apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 2.2 to 200.4 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.7 to 310.8 tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder increasing by 24.2 to 867.7 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.8%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 to 23.5 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 14.0 to 11.0 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4 tons, a growth rate of 6.0%. The global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 12.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot metal production increased by 0.8 to 227.4 tons, a growth rate of 0.4%. The 45 - port daily average ore removal volume increased by 10.2 to 325.2 tons, a growth rate of 3.2%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 41.8 to 15970.89 tons, a growth rate of 0.3%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 86.4 to 8946.5 tons, a growth rate of 1.0%. The 64 - steel - mill inventory available days increased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a growth rate of 5.3% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of the coke 05 contract increased by 118 to 1773 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 7.1%. The coking profit decreased from - 43 to - 54 yuan/ton (weekly) [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of the coking coal 05 contract increased by 68 to 1164 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 6.2%. The sample coal mine profit decreased from 515 to 510 yuan/ton (weekly) [6]. Supply - Coke production was stable, with the daily average production of all - sample coking plants remaining at 62.7 tons. Coking coal production decreased slightly, with raw coal production decreasing by 2.7 to 853.4 tons [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production remained stable at 226.6 tons. The demand for coke was affected by steel mill production [6]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 3.0 to 915.7 tons, a growth rate of 0.3%. Coking coal inventory in different sectors had different changes, such as the Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increasing by 13.6 to 148.5 tons [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions increased. For example, the price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia increased from 5280 to 5350 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract price increased by 84 to 5860 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese main contract price increased by 224 to 6000 yuan/ton [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port was relatively stable [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased slightly, and ferromanganese production was basically flat. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 32.2 to 117.4 tons, a growth rate of 37.8% [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese was supported by the expected increase in hot metal production. The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) remained at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand was 11.3 tons [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 - sample enterprises increased by 0.1 to 6.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.2%. The inventory of ferromanganese in 63 - sample enterprises increased by 0.8 to 39.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.9% [7].