关注微信公众号 | 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月8日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 890.4 | 870.8 | 19.6 | 2.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | | 867.7 | 24.2 | | | | | 6 168 | | | 2.8% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 892.8 | 869.0 | 23.8 | 2.7% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 928.6 | 904.7 | 23.9 | 2.6% | | | 05合约基差:卡粉 | 62.4 | 69.8 | -7.4 | -10.6% | 元/肥 | | 05合约基差:PB粉 | 63.9 | 66.7 | -2.8 | -4.2% | | | 05合约基差:巴混粉 | 64.8 | 68.0 | -3.2 | -4.7% | ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3300 元（-），北京敬业 3150 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3280 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3190 元（+10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面出现下跌，但动力煤价格止跌企稳，导致煤焦依然领涨，钢材现货 成交整体一般偏弱，刚需低价拿货为主。上周钢联数据公布，五大材继续减产，但减 产速度有所放缓，受利润水平的修复螺纹和热卷均有所增产；钢材总库存加速去化， 社库去化速度比厂库更快，钢材仍处于去库周期；受季节性影响建材表需转弱，而热 卷受家电企业年末补库及出口冲量影响表需仍然增长，12 月整体钢材需求表现尚可； 原料端煤矿供应小幅增长，但价格止跌企稳，pb 粉结构性短缺问题尚未解决，进口利 润亏损支撑铁矿价格，钢材成本存在支撑，月底铁 ...

| | | | | | | | Extern Expirition Production Comments of Children Comments of Children Comment | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/16 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | ...

| Extern FAMILIE FOR | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2025/12/02 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 7000 | 1000 | 12605 | JM2605 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report, December 1, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar at 3,260 yuan (+40), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,230 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil at 3,310 yuan (+20), Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil at 3,250 yuan (+30) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market trend: The black metal sector maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with coal and coke leading the rebound [5] - Steel production and inventory: Five major steel products continued to increase production, with rebar production decreasing and hot-rolled coil increasing; total steel inventory destocking slowed down, social inventory destocking accelerated, and apparent steel demand declined slightly [5] - Raw material outlook: Iron ore production is expected to continue to decline this week, squeezing raw material prices; coal and coke prices have recently accelerated their decline due to increased supply and inventory, but the downside for coking coal is limited [5] - Steel price forecast: Short-term steel prices will remain volatile and slightly stronger, following the fundamentals and continuing to trade within a range [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest closing long positions in the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread for profit [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Group 5: Important Information - Environmental inspection: The third round and fifth batch of central environmental protection inspection teams reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei [9] - Tangshan steel billet: On the 1st, the direct sales of Tangshan steel billets were average, and the ex-factory price of steel billets is expected to increase by about 10 yuan in the afternoon [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain range-bound with limited upside due to weak demand, while the iron ore market is expected to be volatile with a generally loose supply-demand situation. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be volatile with some uncertainties [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is currently oscillating. Thread demand has improved, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. Hot-rolled coil demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has started to decline. However, downstream demand is weak, and steel mills are still in a loss-making state. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. The real estate investment decline has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Domestic demand remains weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis. However, weak demand restricts the upside space, and the overall market is expected to remain range-bound. Attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is currently oscillating. The global shipment volume has decreased month-on-month but is still stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a high for the year, and port inventories are expected to return to the inventory replenishment trend this week. The steel demand is at a low level, and it is currently in the off-season. Steel mills are not profitable, and pig iron production is still in a seasonal decline trend, although the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level. The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are still short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The coke market is currently oscillating. Coking profits are average, and daily production has continued to decline slightly. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and downstream demand is limited. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is currently weak and oscillating. Coking coal production has decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions are average, with prices mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Silicon manganese weekly production has decreased slightly, but production is still at a relatively high level, and inventory is slowly increasing. The prices of spot manganese ore have fluctuated, with high-grade oxidized ore slightly increasing and semi-carbonate ore slightly decreasing. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The expected bottom support has shifted downward [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and Lan charcoal prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has declined to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided in the given content - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. The steel market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the upside is restricted by weak demand [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to fluctuate weakly due to abundant carbon supply, seasonal decline in iron - water production, and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - For silicon manganese, the bottom - support expectation has shifted downward due to factors such as the expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price and the slow increase in inventory [7]. - For ferrosilicon, the bottom - support strength will be tested as the supply remains at a high level, although the overall demand still has some resilience [8]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand for thread improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory began to decline [2]. - Downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, steel mills are in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2]. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but weak demand restricts the upside [2]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market fluctuated today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was still stronger than the same period. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly to the highest level this year, and the port inventory decreased last week and is expected to resume the accumulation trend this week [3]. - The apparent demand for steel rebounded from a low level last week, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is still weakening. Pig - iron production is in a seasonal decline trend, and the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production is slightly decreasing. Coke inventory has increased slightly, downstream purchases on a small scale as needed, and inventory changes are not significant. Traders' purchasing willingness is average [4]. - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [4]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price fluctuated weakly during the day. Attention should be paid to whether the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles will remain low due to weather factors [6]. - Coking - coal mine production has decreased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price [7]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Silicon - manganese weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level, and silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Spot ore prices have mixed trends, with high - grade oxidized ore rising slightly and semi - carbonate ore falling slightly. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The bottom - support expectation has shifted downward [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and blue - charcoal price [8]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom - support strength will be tested [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 03 铁矿石 铁 矿 基 本 面 依 然 偏 弱 ， 上 方 压 力 明 确 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 价 格 低 位 区 间 震 荡 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 焦 炭 提 降 预 期 增 强 ， 盘 面 贴 水 计 价 2 - 3 轮预期 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：价格低位区间震荡，等待新驱动 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周铁水产量弱稳，未能延续上涨，当周铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ (representing a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the market) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, and the cost support is loosening. The steel market is under short - term pressure, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether favorable policies will be introduced in the real estate sector [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are gradually becoming looser, and the market is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The bottom - support expectations for silicon manganese and silicon iron have shifted downward, and the prices are under pressure [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel improved this week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory started to decline [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills are generally in a loss state. There is a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level [2]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments are strong, and the shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume has declined, and port inventory is in an accumulating trend [3]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The molten iron is in a seasonal production - cut trend, and there is still room for further decline in the future [3]. Coke - **Production and Inventory**: Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Downstream customers are purchasing on - demand, and traders' purchasing意愿 is general [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The coke market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4]. Coking Coal - **Production and Inventory**: Coking coal production increased slightly, and total inventory increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Price Outlook**: The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the high expectation of coal mine supply guarantee and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [6]. Silicon Manganese - **Cost and Inventory**: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. Manganese ore inventory increased slightly, and silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remains at a high level. The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level [7]. Silicon Iron - **Cost and Inventory**: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Silicon iron supply remains at a high level, and on - balance inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Demand**: The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level, export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, and the production of magnesium metal has increased [8].

今日盘面震荡回落。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续下降。热卷需求趋稳，产量继续回落，累库节奏放缓。 铁水产量有所回升,下游承接能力不足,钢厂亏损比例扩大,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等 地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看,她产投资降幅继续扩大,基建、制造业投资增速持续回落,内需整体依然偏弱,钢材出口 高位有所回落。需求预期仍偏悲观，成本端煤焦继续回落，盘面反弹动能不足，下方仍有支撑，整体低位区间震荡为主。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面震荡。供应端，全球发运偏强，旺季发运量预计维持高位，国内到港量阶段回落至年内均值水平以下,周初港存 有所回落，短期存在一定结构性犹动。需求端，淡季钢材需求偏弱，钢厂盈利情况恶化，铁水上周阶段反弹但仍然处于季节性 城产趋势中,预计未来有进一步减产空间,就产速度或有所放缓。宏观层面处于政策真空期，暂时缺少预期驱动。铁矿石基本 面边际转宽松,我们预计盘面走势震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格大幅下行。焦化利润依旧一般，日产小幅下降。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需采购,库存稍有减少,贸易商 采购意愿一般。整体来看,碳元素供应充裕,下游铁水回到高位区间,对原材料 ...