投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 03 铁矿石 铁 矿 基 本 面 依 然 偏 弱 ， 上 方 压 力 明 确 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 价 格 低 位 区 间 震 荡 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 焦 炭 提 降 预 期 增 强 ， 盘 面 贴 水 计 价 2 - 3 轮预期 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：价格低位区间震荡，等待新驱动 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周铁水产量弱稳，未能延续上涨，当周铁 ...

| | | | 11/11/11 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月20日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★★★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续回落。本周螺纹表需有所好转，产量同步回升，库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖，产量小幅回升，库存开始下降。 下游承接能力不足，钢厂整体延续亏损状态，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，供应压力逐步缓解，关注唐山等地环保限产持续 性。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制 ...

今日盘面震荡回落。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续下降。热卷需求趋稳，产量继续回落，累库节奏放缓。 铁水产量有所回升,下游承接能力不足,钢厂亏损比例扩大,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等 地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看,她产投资降幅继续扩大,基建、制造业投资增速持续回落,内需整体依然偏弱,钢材出口 高位有所回落。需求预期仍偏悲观，成本端煤焦继续回落，盘面反弹动能不足，下方仍有支撑，整体低位区间震荡为主。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面震荡。供应端，全球发运偏强，旺季发运量预计维持高位，国内到港量阶段回落至年内均值水平以下,周初港存 有所回落，短期存在一定结构性犹动。需求端，淡季钢材需求偏弱，钢厂盈利情况恶化，铁水上周阶段反弹但仍然处于季节性 城产趋势中,预计未来有进一步减产空间,就产速度或有所放缓。宏观层面处于政策真空期，暂时缺少预期驱动。铁矿石基本 面边际转宽松,我们预计盘面走势震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格大幅下行。焦化利润依旧一般，日产小幅下降。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需采购,库存稍有减少,贸易商 采购意愿一般。整体来看,碳元素供应充裕,下游铁水回到高位区间,对原材料 ...

黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 1.奥维云网推总数据显示：10 月空调零售量同比下滑 23.8%。从月度监测数据看， 十月线上线下销售量分别下滑 22.2%和 42.3%，线下降幅仍在进一步扩大；在生产端， 奥维云网最新排产数据显示，12 月空调内销排产 482.2 万台，同比下滑 22.6%；出口排 产 907.4 万台，同比下滑 8.2%，内外销排产均下滑，在 12 月外销旺季的内外销平衡被 打破。 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3190 元（-10），北京敬业 3220 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3280 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3220 元（+10）。 【交易策略】 今日黑色板块震荡回落，其中双焦仍然领跌，铁矿石依然走强，钢材现货成交整 体一般偏弱，低价刚需为主。本周布谷网数据公布，建材和 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern in the short term, with the demand outlook remaining pessimistic but the downside supported by moderately loose macro policies [2]. - Iron ore is predicted to oscillate mainly, as the market starts to trade the reality of a marginally looser fundamental situation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to show a moderately strong oscillatory trend, given the ample supply of carbon elements and the weakening downstream demand [4][5]. - Silicomanganese has strong support at the price bottom, despite the continuous decline in hot metal production and the slow accumulation of inventory [6]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall, considering the cost increase and the resilient overall demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market was mainly oscillatory, with thread steel slightly stronger than hot-rolled coil [2]. - This week, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased slightly, production declined synchronously, and inventory continued to fall [2]. - The demand for hot-rolled coil stabilized, production continued to decline, and the pace of inventory accumulation slowed down [2]. - Hot metal production dropped from its high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb the output was insufficient [2]. - Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall [2]. - Steel exports declined from their high level, and the overall domestic demand remained weak [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis has been relatively high recently [3]. - Globally, iron ore shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year, and the Simandou extension mine officially started production, but the short-term production capacity was limited [3]. - The domestic arrival volume remained at a high level for the same period, port inventory continued to increase, and there were some structural changes in Australian ore inventory [3]. - In the off-season, steel demand declined, steel mills' losses intensified, and there was room for further reduction in hot metal production [3]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated during the day, and the downstream's acceptance of the fourth round of price increases was poor [4]. - Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly [4]. - Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream buyers purchasing on a small scale as needed [4]. - Traders' purchasing willingness was average [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated during the day, and the daily import volume from Mongolia remained high [5]. - The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices [5]. - Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared to the previous period [5]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated during the day, and the first-round inquiry price from a large steel mill in the north was 5,750 yuan/ton, compared with the October tender price of 5,820 yuan/ton [6]. - Hot metal production continued to decline, and the weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level [6]. - Silicomanganese inventory was slowly accumulating, and the Comilog's forward manganese ore quotation increased slightly compared to the previous period [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated during the day, and hot metal production continued to decline [7]. - Export demand rose to around 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact [7]. - The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall demand remaining resilient [7]. - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - economic expectations for steel may be in a vacuum, and the focus should be on industrial contradictions. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, with initial suppression of furnace materials and a potential for resonance in the latter half if supported by macro - funds or policies [3]. - The sentiment in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns, with high supply, large inventory - clearing pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited. If supply remains low, inventory replenishment may start around mid - December, and coal prices may rise again [3]. - For iron ore, short - term supply is strong due to arrival rhythms, but subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On November 12, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were reported. The trade volume of building materials spot was around 90,000 tons, and the market was generally dull. There is no new driving force in the short - term, and the macro - economic expectations may be in a vacuum. Steel production is expected to decline, and the initial stage will suppress furnace materials [1][2][3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are following the adjustment of the black - metal sector. The fundamentals have problems such as high supply and large inventory - clearing pressure, and prices may be under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. The coking - coal auction has more non - successful bids, but most prices are rising. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1100. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and the high valuation is hard to maintain. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited [3]. Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is strong due to arrival rhythms, and subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will continue to rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, similar to the above balanced state [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, also in a balanced state [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, with low operability and a balanced trend [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, the same as the others [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term, with overall low - level range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to demand changes and the progress of domestic demand stimulus policies as the off - season approaches [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level, with the market starting to trade the reality of marginal relaxation of fundamentals [3] - The coke market has a third - round price increase expectation, but the steel's pressure on raw material prices is strong. Attention should be paid to safety production assessment information [4] - The coking coal market's price is not expected to decline continuously. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety supervision in major production areas [6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. Thread steel's apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand remained good, production rose slightly, and inventory also decreased [2] - Iron - making water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated [2] - The real estate investment declined significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand was weak, and the market sentiment was low [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened. Global shipments decreased, but were still at a high level. Domestic arrivals reached a new high this year, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - Last week, iron - making water production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate hit a new low this year. There is further production - cut pressure after entering the off - season [3] Coke - The coke price decreased during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase, but the coking profit is average, and downstream demand is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price decreased. Some coal mines in Wuhai resumed production, but the price is not expected to decline continuously. The total inventory increased slightly [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. The manganese ore price increased slightly [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the supply was at a high level with inventory decreasing [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel industry is expected to experience a volatile and upward trend in the first and middle of November, but may decline again later in the month [5][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures (RB2601 and HC2601) first declined and then rebounded significantly. By the end of October, the RB2601 contract rose 34 yuan/ton or 1.11%, and the HC2601 contract rose 55 yuan/ton or 1.69% [20][21][23]. - The premium of hot-rolled coil over rebar first narrowed and then significantly widened in October, increasing from 181 yuan/ton at the end of September to 202 yuan/ton at the end of October [24][26][27]. 3.2 Analysis of Main Influencing Factors - In October, the social inventory of rebar turned to destocking after three consecutive months of accumulation, while the social inventory of hot-rolled coil reached a high and then declined. The seasonal demand for rebar recovered significantly, while its production remained at a low level since late February. The production of hot-rolled coil was still high, but its demand had a periodic trough. As a result, the price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar first narrowed and then widened [28][29]. - Since the end of September, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has significantly declined to a new low since mid-September. The average daily output of crude steel of large and medium-sized steel mills in the first and middle of October decreased compared with the same period in September but increased compared with late September. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products has generally strengthened to a new high since early May, except for a significant shrinkage in early October. The seasonal demand for steel continued to recover, leading to a significant destocking of rebar social inventory, but the social inventory of hot-rolled coil further increased due to high production and periodic low demand. It is expected that the steel demand in November may be high in the front and low in the back, and the steel price may be strong first and then weak [33][39][42]. - In the past four weeks, the production of rebar further declined, and the production of hot-rolled coil also turned to decline. The mill inventory of rebar turned to accumulation, while the mill inventory of hot-rolled coil continued to decline. This indicates that the spot market demand for rebar still needs to be improved, while the demand and supply of the hot-rolled coil market are relatively balanced. As a result, the premium of hot-rolled coil over rebar recovered to a relatively high level after narrowing in the first half of October [43][44]. - In October, the spot profits of blast furnace rebar and hot-rolled coil turned from profit to significant loss, the spot profit of electric furnace construction steel showed a slight expansion of the loss, and the disk profit of rebar showed a significant expansion of the loss. The main reason is that the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil first declined and then rebounded, while the spot price of iron ore continued to rise, and the spot price of coke increased twice, leading to a significant decline in the spot profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil. In the futures market, the steel futures rebounded after reaching a low, the iron ore futures rose again after a correction, and the coke futures rose significantly, resulting in a continuous decline in the overall disk profit of steel [45][47][49]. - Compared with January - August, the demand of the steel downstream industries in January - September showed different performances. The demand for construction steel such as rebar, represented by real estate development investment, has decreased for seven consecutive months. The demand for construction steel such as rebar, represented by the new housing construction area, has shown a narrowing decline after a slight expansion. The demand for manufacturing machinery steel, represented by the output of metal cutting machine tools, has increased for four consecutive months. The demand for real estate-related machinery steel, represented by the output of excavators, has shown a narrowing increase after a significant expansion. The demand for hot-rolled coil, represented by automobile production, has increased from stable to expanding, and the demand for cold-rolled coil, represented by household appliance production, has declined. In November, the seasonal demand for construction steel may be high in the front and low in the back, and the demand for industrial plate steel is expected to be relatively stable, which will contribute to the rise and then fall of steel prices in November [50][54][62]. 3.3 Future Outlook - With the improvement of the low-temperature weather in most parts of the north, the terminal demand is expected to improve. Although the social inventory of steel is significantly higher than in previous years, the improvement in demand may reduce the inventory pressure. - In the raw material market, the shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil and the arrivals at Chinese ports have increased by 3% - 4% month-on-month in the past four weeks, and the ports have continued to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected recovery of downstream steel profits, the price of iron ore has strengthened significantly. The production of coke by independent coking enterprises has significantly declined recently, and the coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, leading to the third round of price increases for coke spot at the end of the month. The coal price has generally increased due to the previous low-temperature weather in the north and stricter coal mine safety production inspections. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year-on-year decline of more than 6% from January to September, resulting in a significant jump in the spot price of coking coal. - Against the background of the easing of the geopolitical situation, the positive expectations brought by two major industry policies, combined with the relatively stable increase in the costs of coal, coke, and ore, have led to a significant rebound in black metal commodity futures. It is expected that the steel market will continue to show a volatile and upward trend after consolidation in the first and middle of November, but may decline again later in the month. Attention should be paid to the cooperation of the spot market and the positive cycle effect of the expected improvement in the steel market on the raw material market [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel supply and demand are neutral with no prominent contradictions. The future trend of the black - metal market mainly depends on the coking coal supply. With prices rising to the upper limit of the range, the game intensifies. It is recommended to reduce long positions at the previous high - pressure levels (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils) and pay attention to the coking coal supply. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - After multiple days of rebound, the driving force of iron ore has weakened. It is recommended to close long single - side positions and switch to a wait - and - see mode, with the reference range of 760 - 830. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view for the fourth quarter. It is recommended to speculatively go long on coke 2601 in the range of 1700 - 1850. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 in the range of 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage can be carried out, but be aware of the large price fluctuations [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar spot in East China rose from 3220 to 3240 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan, and some steelmaking costs and profits changed. For example, East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 4 to 17 yuan [2]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decline of 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a rise of 1.0%. Rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1, a rise of 2.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1, a decline of 3.0% [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, a rise of 10.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a rise of 2.0% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 844.0, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 to 920.0, a decline of 0.6% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decline of 19.5%, while the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a rise of 1.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The 45 - port daily average dispatch volume decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decline of 7.1% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 12.4 to 14311.15, a decline of 0.8%, while the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a rise of 1.1% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices generally decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 15 to 1787, a decline of 0.8%. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Some coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 14 to 1288, a decline of 1.1%. The profit of sample coal mines increased by 39 to 232, a rise of 7.9% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, a rise of 0.2%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 851.8, a rise of 0.4% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 [7]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, a rise of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5, a rise of 2.2% [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. It is expected that the January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil will recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar at 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened. Consider that coal production continues to be reduced, and the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of hot - rolled coil increased from 3305 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products changed slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased, while the profit of some coal - related indicators increased. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, an increase of 1.0%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, an increase of 2.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with the range referring to 780 - 850. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of iron ore increased, and the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 yuan/ton to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, an increase of 1.6%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decrease of 19.5% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decrease of 7.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month. The inventory of beneficial ores of steel mills increased, and the inventory pressure increased [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the range referring to 1700 - 1850. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, but pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with the range referring to 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, and pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1748 yuan/ton to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal increased from 1242 yuan/ton to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coking coal decreased due to safety and environmental reasons in some areas. The production of coke also decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decrease, but there was replenishment demand after the festival [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of coking plants and ports increased, while the inventory of steel mills decreased. The overall inventory of coke was slightly reduced, and the overall inventory of coking coal was slightly increased [6].