1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the black futures market declined overall. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with low - price rigid demand purchases as the main form, and there was price - holding behavior in the spot market. - Last week, the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly. Among them, rebar production decreased while hot - rolled coil production continued to increase. It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to rise this week. - Steel apparent demand is still recovering, but the recovery progress has slowed down. Rebar performs better than hot - rolled coil. Rebar inventory is decreasing rapidly, while the inventory reduction speed of hot - rolled coil has slowed down. - Recently, the capital and resumption of work of downstream construction sites have continued to improve. Plate exports have declined due to the impact of the Middle East region. The overall inventory level of hot - rolled coil is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, billet exports have continued to improve, and the order - receiving situation is generally good. Steel exports have returned to profitability. - Affected by overseas raw material sentiment, the black sector rose earlier, but the sentiment has declined recently, driving the sector down. The subsequent performance of downstream demand and overseas geopolitical frictions still need to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Relevant Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is priced at 3,190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,170 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3,290 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3,230 yuan (-) [4]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It will still maintain a volatile trend following overseas sentiment and the raw material end. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to go long on the HC05 - 10 spread at low prices. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Important Information** - From March 23rd to March 29th, the total contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 3.3472 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 77.1% and a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. - In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level [7]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [10][14][16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Roll: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market shows mixed trends with demand and supply changes, and cost support remains strong. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices may be affected by geopolitical conflicts and are prone to rise. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are influenced by various factors such as supply, demand, and external events [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. Thread demand improved, production increased, and inventory started to decline. Hot roll demand gradually improved, production increased, and inventory decreased from a high level. After the conference, blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and molten iron production increased significantly. Steel mill profits are still poor, restricting the future increase. From January to February data, real estate investment decline narrowed, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth increased, domestic demand improved marginally, and steel exports declined from a high level. With the decline in oil prices, inflation expectations cooled, and the futures market declined, but cost support remains strong. Short - term fluctuations are expected, and attention should be paid to the Iran situation and peak - season demand [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. Global shipments increased compared to the previous period and were stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals increased, and port inventory entered the seasonal destocking stage. The problem of liquidity disturbance of some ore types is expected to be alleviated. Terminal demand continued to pick up in the peak season, and molten iron production increased significantly after the end of production reduction disturbances. There is still room for production resumption, and iron ore demand improved marginally. External geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, and rising oil prices provide phased cost support. The iron ore futures market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - The coke price declined slightly during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory changed little, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly. Overall, carbon element supply is sufficient, downstream molten iron production increased significantly, and steel profits improved slightly. The coke futures market is at a premium. Geopolitical conflicts may cause coking coal to drive up coke prices, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,516 vehicles. Coal mine resumption is good, weekly production continued to increase slightly, and spot auction transactions were good this week, with transaction prices rising. This is mainly due to market concerns about energy rather than abundant supply. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and restocking actions were few. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, carbon element supply is sufficient, downstream molten iron production increased significantly, and steel profits improved slightly. The coking coal futures market is at a large premium to Mongolian coal, and although Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high, the suppression is weak. Geopolitical conflicts may cause coking coal prices to be prone to rise, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The impact of the typhoon in northeastern Australia on the manganese ore shipments from Groote Eylandt is relatively small and short - term. The spot manganese ore transaction price continued to rise, and manganese ore port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory accumulation rate at ports will decrease under the influence of the typhoon. On the demand side, molten iron production increased significantly. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and silicon manganese inventory increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the drive of the black - series market [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. As the spot price followed the futures price increase, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the main production areas turned profitable, and the loss in other areas decreased. On the demand side, molten iron production rebounded significantly. Export demand remained at about 25,000 tons, with little marginal impact, and the monthly export volume is expected to remain at about 35,000 tons in the medium - to - long term. The production of magnesium metal remained at a high level, and secondary demand was relatively stable. Overall, demand still has resilience. Ferrosilicon weekly supply increased slightly, inventory increased overall, and the price may be mainly driven by silicon manganese [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market showed significant declines followed by narrowing losses on March 10. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and strengthen in the future, and the 4-year and 10-month downward cycle may have ended, but the rebound path remains unclear [6][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Futures Market**: On March 10, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 significantly declined and then narrowed their losses. The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3104 yuan/ton, down 0.42%, and the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract closed at 3256 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The stainless steel 2605 contract closed at 14225 yuan/ton, up 0.82% [5][6] - **Spot Market**: On March 10, the prices of individual rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. The rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Hefei markets dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, and Guangzhou markets dropped by 10 yuan/ton [8] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2605 contract continued to diverge, with the J value falling faster, the K value turning down, and the D value continuing to rise slightly, showing a potential dead cross. The daily KDJ indicators of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract also diverged, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise. The daily MACD red bars of the rebar 2605 contract enlarged for 5 consecutive trading days, and those of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract enlarged for 2 consecutive trading days [8] - **Future Outlook**: The news first significantly boosted and then negatively affected the expected price of the steel market. Fundamentally, as time passes, the low steel production will conflict with the warming spring demand. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and strengthen, but the future rebound path is unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long-term market fluctuations, especially pay attention to possible changes in the Middle East situation [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - **Coal Transportation**: In the first two months of this year, the "Xinjiang coal to Ningxia" transportation volume exceeded 825,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 356,200 tons, an increase of 76% [12] - **Coal Electricity Capacity Price**: Since January 1, 2026, the coal electricity capacity price standard in Shanxi Province has been adjusted to 165 yuan/kilowatt-year (tax included) [12] - **Steel Company Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Valin Steel achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.72%. The company adheres to a differentiated development strategy and continuously invests in production line improvement and product structure adjustment. The cash dividend and share repurchase and cancellation amount in 2025 accounted for 47.5% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 [12][13] - **Foreign Trade Data**: In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value was 1.09954 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%. Exports were 656.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 21.8%, and imports were 442.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 19.8%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 15.591 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and cumulative steel imports were 827,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%. Cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 210.023 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and cumulative imports of coal and lignite were 77.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [13] - **Coal Export in Australia**: In February 2026, the total coal export volume of the three major terminals in North Queensland, Australia, was 8.7451 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.53% but a year-on-year increase of 36.94% [13] - **Energy - Saving Measures**: Thailand will require most government agencies to work from home, and the Philippines has implemented a four - day work arrangement to save energy [13] - **Russian Gas Supply**: Russia plans to redirect some of its liquefied natural gas supplies to other markets before the EU import ban takes effect [13] - **Shipping Market**: Last week, about 24 oil tankers signed time charter orders, the highest since May 2020. The one - year charter rate of supertankers reached a record high of 176,250 US dollars per day. The benchmark revenue of very large crude carriers on the Middle East - China route in the spot market reached 476,754 US dollars per day. It is expected that there will be a 15% excess of shipping capacity in the Middle East in the next month [13] - **Coal Price**: The Asian benchmark Newcastle coal futures price jumped about 9.3% on March 9, reaching the 150 US dollars/ton mark, the highest since November 2024. The Rotterdam coal price in the European market rose about 13% to 119.50 US dollars/ton on March 2, a 52 - week high [14] - **Mongolian Iron Ore Export**: In February 2026, Mongolia's iron ore export volume was 586,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.34% but a month-on-month decrease of 16.47%, the lowest since March 2025 [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and May contracts [18][21][22][25][32][33]

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are mentioned in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The black metal market shows narrow - range fluctuations with low volatility. The short - term export expectation of steel is weak due to the US - Iran conflict, and the upcoming Two Sessions may affect the demand - side expectation. Although steel valuation is not high, the upward demand expectation is not strong. Pay attention to the support levels of 3020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The short - term supply pressure still suppresses the iron ore price, and concerns about finished product exports may cause disturbances. The iron ore price may fluctuate widely in the range of 730 - 770. Pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the policies of the Two Sessions [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the short - term price is stable. The US - Iran conflict drives up energy commodities, leading to a rebound in coal - coke futures. It is recommended to view it with caution, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800. For coking coal, it is also recommended to view it as fluctuating upward with caution, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply is tight. The price may face pressure when it rebounds to the export cost. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. For silicomanganese, the short - term price driver comes from manganese ore, and it is recommended to consider the 5 - 9 positive spread [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show different changes. For example, the rebar 05 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost of some steel products increased, and the profit of some products decreased. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 (-1.0% decrease). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1 (7.8% increase) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 5.2 (17.4% increase), and the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). However, the apparent demand of rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6 (-18.5% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of about 0.1%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 (-2.4% decrease), and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 13.5 (12.5% increase) [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7 (0.6% increase) on a weekly basis, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9 (-0.3% decrease). The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5 (-15.0% decrease) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1 (-15.1% decrease) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, such as the coke 05 contract increasing by 42 to 1694 (2.5% increase). Coking coal futures prices also increased, like the coking coal 05 contract increasing by 33 to 1127 (3.0% increase) [7]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0 (-0.8% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 80.2 to 1079.1 (-7.4% decrease) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 22 to 5786 (0.44% increase), and the silicomanganese main - contract closing price increased. Some spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 17 to 6036.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit of some regions changed. The manganese ore price showed different trends, with the South African semi - carbonate showing a relatively strong performance [8]. Supply and Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 0.9 to 9.8 (0.6% increase), and the weekly silicomanganese product increased by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase). The iron ore demand increased with the increase in pig iron output [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.1 to 7.0 (-1.6% decrease), and the inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises increased by 0.4 to 39.8 (0.9% increase) [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various futures varieties: - **Thread Steel and Hot Rolled Coil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore, Coke, and Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Thread Steel**: Demand is still weak year - on - year, iron - water production is rising month - on - month and is higher than the same period in previous years. The overall supply - demand of steel is relatively loose. With high raw material supply, the weak reality exerts pressure. The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on the black market, and domestic policy expectations are not strong. It may run weakly in the medium - term [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory level is high, supply - demand changes follow seasonal patterns, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around the par level. The weak reality of steel will still suppress the market in the medium - term. The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on steel, and it will run weakly in the medium - term due to supply - demand pressure [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas ore shipments have declined from the high level, iron - water production continues to increase, port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills are consuming inventory. There may be short - term restocking by steel mills, which will support the price. During important domestic meetings, the sentiment is positive [1][8]. - **Coke**: Affected by the lifting of coke oven production restrictions, the start - up of coke enterprises has stabilized recently. During the Two Sessions, some blast furnaces of steel mills are restricted, and short - term iron - water recovery is expected to be slow. The downstream is in a de - stocking state with insufficient restocking willingness, and the price mainly rebounds following market sentiment [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production intensively, and the daily average output of mines has increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, iron - water production continues to rise month - on - month, the downstream is in a de - stocking state with insufficient restocking willingness. At the same time, factors such as tight Australian coal supply and increasing Mongolian port inventory coexist. The overall supply - demand is basically balanced, and the price is expected to rebound following market sentiment in the short - term [1][15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The production area's start - up rate remains low, demand is marginally weakening, and inventory continues to increase. The quotes of some mainstream manganese mines in April continue to rise, providing strong cost support. The South African official document does not mention the tax adjustment of exported mineral resources, and follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of relevant policies. Commodity sentiment and its low - valuation attribute drive the price to run strongly [1][18][19]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area changes little, demand is marginally weakening, and inventory has decreased month - on - month. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet, and there is no obvious fundamental driver. Commodity sentiment and its low - valuation attribute drive the price to run strongly [1][18][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Related Data - **Thread Steel**: Futures prices of different contracts (Thread 01: 3132, up 1; Thread 05: 3074, up 7; Thread 10: 3105, unchanged). Spot prices vary by region (e.g., Tangshan: 3040, down 10; Shanghai: 3190, unchanged). There are also data on basis, futures spreads, and other indicators [2]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Futures prices of different contracts (Hot Roll 01: 3245, down 14; Hot Roll 05: 3219, unchanged; Hot Roll 10: 3238, unchanged). Spot prices vary by region (e.g., Tianjin: 3140, unchanged; Shanghai: 3240, unchanged). There are also data on basis, futures spreads, and other indicators [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices of different contracts (Iron Ore 01: 720, down 2; Iron Ore 05: 754, down 1; Iron Ore 09: 733, down 1). There are also data on basis, spreads, and other indicators, as well as information on sea freight and spot indices [6]. - **Coke**: Futures prices of different contracts (Coke 1 - month contract: 1856.0, up 38.0; Coke 5 - month contract: 1694.0, up 42.0; Coke 9 - month contract: 1770.0, up 39.0). There are also data on basis, spreads, and other indicators, as well as information on spot prices and weekly data [11]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures prices of different contracts (Coking Coal 1 - month contract: 1420.0, up 27.5; Coking Coal 5 - month contract: 1127.0, up 33.0; Coking Coal 9 - month contract: 1222.0, up 27.5). There are also data on basis, spreads, and other indicators, as well as information on spot prices and weekly data [14]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices of different contracts (Manganese Silicon 01: 6192, up 20; Manganese Silicon 05: 6118, up 36; Manganese Silicon 09: 6160, up 34; Ferrosilicon 01: 5808, down 16; Ferrosilicon 05: 5786, up 22; Ferrosilicon 09: 5828, up 14). There are also data on spot prices, basis, spreads, and other indicators, as well as information on weekly data [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][7][8] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The black metal shows a weak trend. The May contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil closed at 3067 and 3219 yuan per ton respectively. The Iran-US war affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, leading to an expected decline in steel export volume and suppressing the performance of the futures market. The upcoming Two Sessions may interfere with the demand-side expectations. Iron ore production is rising, the output of five major steel products is stable at a low level, and inventory is seasonally accumulating, but the inventory pressure is controllable. Raw material supply is relatively loose, and raw material prices are weak, dragging down steel prices. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply-demand outlook is not strong. Pay attention to the impact of variables on supply-demand expectations. Rebar and hot-rolled coil should focus on the support levels around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated. The Iran-US conflict has caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices, a climb in global shipping freight, and local shipping disruptions. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly this period, and the cumulative global iron ore shipment has increased by nearly 30 million tons since the beginning of the year. The arrival volume has been declining, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in 47 ports is about 27 million tons, so supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, iron ore production has rebounded, but production resumption during the Two Sessions may be affected, and the recovery of terminal demand needs to be verified. The inventory level of finished products is acceptable, and attention should be paid to the subsequent de-stocking slope after the peak. In terms of inventory, steel mills mainly consumed raw ore inventory during the holiday, resulting in a significant decline in steel mill inventory and a slight increase in port inventory. If the daily average iron ore production in March is 2.35 million tons, there will still be a slight inventory accumulation pressure, but the accumulation speed will narrow compared to the previous period. In the short term, supply pressure still suppresses ore prices, but the inventory contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and there is also resistance to further decline in ore prices. Wait for the verification of terminal demand and policy expectations before the Two Sessions. In addition, pay attention to the changes in non-mainstream shipments. Short-term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and short positions are still considered after rebounds [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The steel mills accepted the first round of coke price increase before the holiday and are planning to lower the price after the holiday, while the port price remained stable. On the supply side, coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, and the coking profit has recovered to near the break-even point after the price increase. After the holiday, coke production enterprises' operation increased slightly following the increase in iron ore production. On the demand side, the iron ore production of steel mills increased from a low level after the holiday, steel prices oscillated weakly, and the restocking demand was weak. In terms of inventory, both ports and steel mills reduced inventory, while coke production enterprises increased inventory, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are basically balanced. In terms of strategy, the short-term coke price is stable. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, there are certain policy expectations. The Iran-US conflict has driven up energy commodities, leading to a rebound in coking coal and coke futures, which is slightly positive for the black metal market but has limited impact. With multiple factors at play, it is recommended to view the market as oscillating, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750 [7] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated. In the spot market, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with the futures. After the holiday, the restocking demand weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory. However, the thermal coal market continued to rise, and different coal types showed different trends. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival holiday, coal mines gradually resumed production, and the daily output will gradually increase in the future. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and customs clearance resumed on the 23rd, with 1300 vehicles cleared on that day. On the demand side, the iron ore production of steel mills increased from a low level, the coking profit was repaired, and the operation was stable with a slight increase. After the Spring Festival, the downstream restocking demand was limited. In terms of inventory, coal mines accumulated inventory, while coke production enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, ports, and border ports all reduced inventory, and the overall inventory decreased seasonally. In terms of strategy, the shortage of Indonesian coal has caused the domestic thermal coal price to rise, and the market expects that it will support the coking coal price. The Iran-US conflict has driven up global energy prices, and the futures market rebounded. With multiple factors at play, it is recommended to view the market as oscillating, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly. Overseas factors are volatile, and policy expectations before the Two Sessions are strengthening. Attention should be paid to whether ferrosilicon exports will be affected. Fundamentally, after the holiday, ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, and the absolute value is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. Most production areas' output was basically the same as last week. There are expectations of production resumption in Ningxia and maintenance in Shaanxi, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. In terms of steelmaking demand, iron ore production continued to rise and accelerated. There may be production restrictions during the Two Sessions, and terminal demand needs time to recover. The low inventory of finished products gives steel mills greater flexibility in resuming production, and the overall demand is expected to improve marginally after the holiday. In terms of non-steel demand, there are positive factors for magnesium alloys, and some ferrous alloy stocks have reached the daily limit. Currently, the daily output of metallic magnesium is at a relatively high level, and it decreased slightly due to factory maintenance during the holiday. Factories are currently producing according to orders, and downstream demand is waiting to recover. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke decreased slightly. Currently, Ningxia has the best production profit, while other production areas have varying degrees of losses. Looking forward, the short-term supply and demand of ferrosilicon are tight. The current futures price has rebounded to near the export cost and will face pressure. With frequent overseas macro changes and strengthening policy expectations before the Two Sessions, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8] - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese main contract continued to rise in a "V" shape. Affected by spot news, it weakened during the session and then strengthened again. The Iran-US geopolitical situation has led to an increase in crude oil prices, and the shipping freight of manganese ore from South Africa, Gabon, and Brazil to China has increased by 3 - 4 US dollars per ton. Fundamentally, the supply of ferromanganese increased slightly month-on-month, and the absolute value of weekly output is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The output in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased slightly, and the output in Guangxi increased month-on-month due to the electricity price discount during the holiday, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the policy will continue after the holiday. In terms of steelmaking demand, iron ore production continued to rise and accelerated. There may be production restrictions during the Two Sessions, and terminal demand needs time to recover. The low inventory of finished products gives steel mills greater flexibility in resuming production, and the overall demand is expected to improve marginally after the holiday. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse receipt level is relatively low, and the total inventory is neutral. In terms of cost, the price of manganese ore is firm, and the new round of foreign quotes has been raised. There is an expectation of downstream restocking, and the supply-demand pattern continues to strengthen. Last week, the manganese ore port inventory increased significantly due to the decline in port clearance during the holiday and the increase in arrivals. Attention should be paid to the subsequent de-stocking situation. In general, the short-term price driver of ferromanganese comes from manganese ore. The current futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the supply and demand situation restricts the price increase space. Pay attention to the production resumption situation of ferromanganese. With frequent overseas macro changes and strengthening policy expectations before the Two Sessions, price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see on a single side, pay attention to the immediate cost pressure level in Guizhou, or consider a 5 - 9 positive spread [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed different changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of the 10 - contract increased by 5 yuan/ton [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2910 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Output**: The daily average iron ore production increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 tons, a 1.0% decrease. The rebar output decreased by 5.3 to 165.1 tons, a 3.1% decrease [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1 tons, a 7.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 84.6 to 800.6 tons, an 11.8% increase. The hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 18.3 to 452.2 tons, a 4.2% increase [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.6 to 2.2 tons, a 20.6% decrease. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7 tons, a 5.4% increase. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6 tons, an 18.5% decrease. The apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased by 21.6 to 268.4 tons, an 8.8% increase [1] Iron Ore Industry - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different changes. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of low - grade powder increased by 6.5 to 854.4 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changed, with the basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 yuan/ton, a 5.3% decrease [4] - **Spot Prices and Price Indices**: The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Karara powder increased by 6.0 to 886.0 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase [4] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The global shipment volume increased, and the national monthly import volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7 tons, a 0.6% increase [4] - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5 tons, a 15.0% decrease. The national pig iron monthly output decreased by 162.4 to 6072.2 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7 tons, a 2.4% decrease [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96 tons, a 0.9% increase. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1 tons, a 15.1% decrease. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 7.0 to 23.0 days, a 23.3% decrease [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of coke and their contracts showed different changes. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1681 yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 - contract of coke increased by 17 to 1652 yuan/ton, a 1.0% increase [7] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of coking coal and their contracts also changed. For example, the price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged at 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 - contract of coking coal increased by 1 to 1094 yuan/ton, a 0.0% increase [7] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3 tons, a 0.9% increase. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 144.1 to 840.4 tons, a 17.1% decrease. The clean coal output decreased by 74.4 to 423.9 tons, a 17.5% decrease [7] - **Demand**: The iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 63.7 tons, a 0.9% increase. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 tons, a 0.3% decrease [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.5 to 107.8 tons, a 7.5% increase. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 13.5 to 675.1 tons, a 2.0% decrease. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 3.1 to 124.1 tons, a 2.5% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 80.2 to 1079.1 tons, a 7.4% decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 27.9 to 792.5 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The port inventory increased by 13.6 to 272.0 tons, a 5.2% increase [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - **Futures and Spot**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese main contracts increased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 38 to 5764 yuan/ton, a 0.7% increase. The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 to 5330 yuan/ton, a 0.9% increase [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 17.2 to 6019.6 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 32.8 to - 269.6 yuan/ton, a 10.8% increase. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5500 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 to 28.3 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.4 to 19.7 tons, a 1.8% increase [8] - **Demand**: The ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 to 11.0 tons, a 1.3% decrease. The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The blast furnace operation rate increased by 0.1 to 80.2%, a 0.1% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 tons, a

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market's futures price rally lacks sustainability, and the spot market has weak drivers. The inventory is still accumulating, but the apparent demand has improved seasonally. The key is to observe the post - Lantern Festival demand and policy signals from the Two Sessions [2] - Due to the rumor of South Africa imposing a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have strengthened. The direct demand is expected to improve with the recovery of hot metal production, but the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains [3] - After a pulse - like rebound, coking coal and coke prices have fallen again. The supply side will recover first, while the recovery of the demand side is expected to be weaker. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended that the industry build positions on rallies and that unilateral traders wait and see [5] - Driven by real - estate利好 news, blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, and potential impacts of heavy rain in Brazil on iron ore shipments, the iron ore price has rebounded slightly, but the upward drive is insufficient, and the overall upside is limited by port inventory pressure [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On February 26, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3097.00 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, HC2610 at 3239.00 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3063.00 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, HC2605 at 3218.00 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase [1] - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2605 - 2610 at - 34.00 yuan/ton with a 3.00 yuan increase on February 26. The spreads/price ratios/profits, like the coil - to - rebar spread at 155.00 yuan/ton with a - 5.00 yuan change [1] Spot Market - On February 26, Shanghai rebar was at 3200.00 yuan/ton with no price change, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3210.00 yuan/ton with a - 60.00 yuan decrease. The prices of other spot products also had corresponding changes [1] Steel - The futures price rally lacks continuity, and the spot market has entered an adjustment phase. The inventory is still accumulating, and the apparent demand has improved seasonally. The post - Lantern Festival demand and policy signals from the Two Sessions are key factors [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by the rumor of South Africa imposing a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore, the prices have strengthened. The direct demand is expected to improve with the recovery of hot metal production, but the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The cost support has strengthened, and industrial policies may affect supply [3] Coking Coal and Coke - After a pulse - like rebound, the prices have fallen again. The supply side will recover first, while the demand side's recovery is expected to be weaker. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended that the industry build positions on rallies and that unilateral traders wait and see [5] Iron Ore - Driven by real - estate利好 news, blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, and potential impacts of heavy rain in Brazil on iron ore shipments, the price has rebounded slightly, but the upward drive is insufficient, and the overall upside is limited by port inventory pressure [6] Investment Recommendations - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For coking coal and coke, unilateral traders should wait and see, and cash - and - carry arbitrage positions can be established on rallies [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot market is closed during the holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The market's expectation for the post - holiday period is not ideal. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply - demand situation is weak. Policy and cost factors are favorable. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday due to many uncertainties [3] - For coking coal and coke, the market continues to weaken. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] - For iron ore, the restocking is basically over, and the price will fluctuate before the holiday. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market is closed during the approaching holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly, indicating a not - so - optimistic market expectation for the post - holiday period. The black market is less affected by the cooling of the commodity market. Traders are not willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Before the holiday, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The downstream terminal demand is seasonally weak, and the direct demand is weak and stable. The alloy factory's profit is under pressure, and the production and start - up rate have decreased compared with the same period last year. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. Policy and cost factors are favorable, such as the increase in manganese ore prices and electricity price disturbances. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market trading is cold during the approaching holiday. The futures market of the black sector fluctuates weakly. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. The downstream restocking is near the end. There is news about Indonesian production cuts, but the probability of substantial cuts is low, and it provides an opportunity for spot - futures positive spreads. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's restocking is basically over, and the restocking strength is not as strong as expected. The price will fluctuate before the holiday. After the holiday, the Australian weather may affect the supply rhythm, and the price impact is more likely to be a rebound followed by a better short - selling point. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, with both valuation and driving factors lacking significant trading opportunities. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is gradually entering a holiday state, while the futures prices are still fluctuating, indicating a less - than - optimistic market expectation for the future or the post - holiday period [7]. - For steel, it's advisable to wait and see in the short term. For hot - rolled coils, positive spreads can be rolled for operations. For coal and coke, it's recommended to cash in spot positions opportunistically before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise. For iron ore, it's suggested that long - term investors short at resistance levels [7][66][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Bullish. Hot metal production has a slight fluctuation, with this week's output increasing by 0.6 to 228.56 wt. The daily consumption of scrap steel has declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the EAF operating rate is steadily decreasing, but there is still room for production resumption after the festival [7]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Building material demand shows more obvious seasonality, with significantly reduced transactions, and the spot market is gradually closing for the holiday. Plate demand remains stable, and the demand for medium and heavy plates is relatively strong, related to downstream shipbuilding and wind power steel demand. Overall, the market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and speculative demand has almost stalled [7]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory of the five major steel products is between the levels of 2025. Seasonal inventory accumulation continues, with the amplitude and rhythm in line with the same - period levels. Building material - related varieties have an increased inventory accumulation amplitude, while the plate inventory accumulation rhythm is relatively neutral [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar has strengthened, and the return on cash - and - carry arbitrage has turned positive. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 103, with a week - on - week increase of 21; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 1, with a week - on - week increase of 17 [7]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The profitability of steel mills is moderately low, with actual production profits slightly higher than statistical profits. Rebar profits are slightly better than plate profits. The profitability rate of steel mills, as reported by Steelhome, is 39.39%, with no week - on - week change [7]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The basis of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [7]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: Neutral. Commodity price fluctuations have increased. As the long holiday approaches, funds have turned cautious, and the speculative atmosphere has cooled down [7]. 3.1.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Wait and see. The black metal sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and due to increasing seasonal factors, the market is showing typical seasonal weakening characteristics. It is necessary to pay attention to the post - holiday demand start - up situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can be in a range - bound or wait - and - see state. For arbitrage, roll to widen the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. For cash - and - carry arbitrage, roll operations on hot - rolled coils [8]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke 3.2.1 Influencing Factors - **Demand**: Neutral. The steel market has entered the off - season. This week, the apparent demand for the five major steel products is 801.74 (+7.78), and the production is 823.17 (+3.58). The industry data is generally weak, with relatively stable supply, seasonal weakening of demand, and some inventory accumulation. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills this week is 228.58 (-0.12), and the steel mill profitability rate remains at 39.39% [66]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Neutral. Next week, coal mines will gradually start their holidays. Fenwei's coking coal production has increased, but production will gradually decline in the future. Mongolian coal port clearance has slowed down due to port storage capacity pressure. The offshore market for Australian coking coal is in a state of continued game - playing, with limited market liquidity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [66]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.4 (+0.5), and the coking profit is - 55 (+11). After the first round of price increases was finally implemented, coke enterprise operations have increased [66]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The winter stockpiling is almost over. This week, the market is still in the winter stockpiling cycle, and the upstream inventory is continuing to transfer to the downstream. After the first - round price increase of coke was implemented, coke enterprise operations increased, and the number of available days of steel mill inventory also increased rapidly. With only one week left before the holiday, upstream coal mines will also gradually start their holidays, and the stockpiling is basically over [66]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. After the first - round price increase of coke was implemented, there is no expectation of the next round. The cost of the first - round price increase warehouse receipts for wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke for the 05 contract is 1729/1756, and the port trade quotation is around 1728. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is around 1130 [66]. - **Profit**: Neutral. The steel mill profitability rate is 39.39% (-1.30%), and the coking profit is - 55 (-11) [66]. 3.2.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Bearish. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market has gradually faded, and the black metal market has weakened in a volatile manner. Fundamentally, the market has entered the off - season, with overall weak industrial data. It is recommended to cash in spot positions opportunistically before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should cash in spot positions opportunistically and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when prices rise. For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see [66]. 3.3 Iron Ore 3.3.1 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Neutral. This period's Reuters shipping data shows a week - on - week increase of 22.2 tons per day to 440 tons per day, with Australia's shipping increasing by 19.5 tons per day, Brazil's by 6.2 tons per day, and non - mainstream mines' shipping decreasing by 3.4 tons per day to 85.5 tons per day. The total arrival volume in China has decreased by 21.2 tons per day week - on - week, with Australia's arrival increasing by 7.6 tons per day, Brazil's decreasing by 8.9 tons per day, and non - mainstream arrivals decreasing by 19.9 tons per day [112]. - **Demand**: Neutral. This period's steel mill hot metal production has slightly increased to 228.58 tons (+0.6). The steel mill profitability rate remains stable at 39.39%. According to the maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to increase significantly in February. The daily average port ore removal volume has increased significantly by 9.88 tons to 357.58 tons, but the port inventory has increased by 156.42 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and continuously reaching new highs for the year. Affected by the steel mills' low - inventory operation strategy, the in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [112]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The daily average ore removal volume of 47 ports has increased significantly by 9.88 tons to 357.58 tons, at a relatively high seasonal level. However, due to the high arrival volume, the port inventory has increased again by 156.42 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [112]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are at a low level [112]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The short - term valuation is moderate. As the holiday approaches, steel mill stockpiling is basically over, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range before the holiday. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether Australian weather will affect the supply rhythm [112]. 3.3.2 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: Neutral. In the long - term, the upward pressure on iron ore is obvious [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short at resistance levels in the long - term. For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see [112].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are stabilizing. The night trading prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils closed at 3,105 yuan and 3,271 yuan respectively. Supply and demand are both weak, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The off-season characteristics are obvious. Near the Spring Festival, the industry's supply and demand are weak, and the black market valuation is not high, close to the lower edge of the oscillation range, with limited further downward space. The price of coking coal strengthened due to the expected reduction in Indonesian coal production, and it is expected that the supply side of coking coal will affect the black market fluctuations in the near future. Steel prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and the upward elasticity depends on the supply-side policies of coking coal and market sentiment. Consider holding a long position in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar. Short-term long positions in hot-rolled coils can be attempted at the 3,250 level [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract was weak, and the night trading continued to show weakness. The raw material side showed continuous differentiation. Affected by the Indonesian coal export restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, and the coking coal ratio strengthened. The supply side of iron ore had a slight increase in global shipments this period, and the shipment center decreased marginally but was still at a relatively high level compared to the historical average. On the demand side, SMM predicted that the impact of blast furnace maintenance would decline this week, and the molten iron output might increase slightly. After the festival, the resumption of production is expected to accelerate. Currently, the supply and demand of finished products are still healthy, and the inventories of plates and cold-rolled products continue to decline. The terminal demand for steel exports has decreased, but it still has some resilience. Pay attention to the demand recovery after the festival. In terms of inventory, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the high absolute inventory had a strong suppression on iron ore prices; while steel mill inventories increased significantly, and the port clearance volume increased month-on-month, and the replenishment was gradually realized. In the future, the demand for iron ore before the festival is weak, and the high inventory and high off-season supply continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Short positions can be attempted, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke - The coke futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, on January 28, steel mills officially accepted the coke price increase and started implementing it on the 30th. The port price remained stable, and the coke market rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, with a slight decline in production. On the demand side, steel mills resumed production slightly after New Year's Day, the molten iron output was low, and the steel price rebounded from a low level. In terms of inventory, both coking plants and steel mills accumulated inventory, and the port inventory decreased. The overall inventory increased slightly at a medium level. The short-term supply and demand of coke are in a slightly tight balance. In terms of strategy, the implementation of the price increase drives the market to rebound, but the implementation time of the price increase by mainstream coking enterprises lags, which suppresses the expectation of future price increases. There is still an expectation of loosening after the festival. The rebound of the coking coal futures price provides cost support. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,800. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures oscillated upward. On the spot side, the auction price of Shanxi spot showed a downward trend, with the price of low-sulfur main coking coal in some coal mines decreasing. The Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated with the futures. Recently, the auction failure rate has decreased, and the winter storage replenishment is approaching the end. The thermal coal market has started to stabilize recently. On the supply side, after the New Year, the daily output of coal mines continued to recover, entering the resumption of production stage, with good shipments and accelerated inventory reduction. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory is at a historical high, and the Mongolian coal quotation has rebounded and then declined. After New Year's Day, the customs clearance has quickly recovered to a relatively high level. On the demand side, the molten iron output of steel mills remained low, the coking profit declined, and the production declined. The downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival has limited growth. In terms of inventory, with the progress of downstream replenishment, coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports have all accumulated inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, and ports have reduced inventory. The overall inventory has increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the short-term implementation of the coke price increase drives the market to rebound. India classifies coking coal as a strategic resource, and the Indonesian government's reduction of the annual coal production plan has led to coal mine production cuts, and overseas market disturbances have driven the rebound of coking coal. However, the domestic supply and demand are generally balanced. The single-sided view is oscillating, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron - The main silicon iron contract oscillated, and the contract was shifted to 05. The Indonesian coal export restrictions led to an expected increase in the cost of silicon iron. On the spot side, the price in the Ningxia production area weakened slightly yesterday, and the rest remained stable. Near the holiday, the transaction was cold. On the supply side, the silicon iron output increased slightly month-on-month, basically the same as the previous period, with limited changes, and the absolute value was still at a historically low level in the same period. The output in most production areas was basically the same as last week, and the output in Ningxia increased slightly. It is expected that the silicon iron output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of magnesium metal demand, the daily output is still at a relatively high level, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened compared with the previous period, and the price has declined; the silicon iron export is also affected by many factors, and the overall steel demand has weakened marginally. In terms of cost, the price of semi-coke remained stable, and the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased slightly. Pay attention to the changes in the settlement electricity prices in other production areas. The cost side still has support. In the future, the short-term supply and demand contradiction of silicon iron is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the cost side has support. Pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,500 - 5,800 [7]. Manganese Silicon - The main manganese silicon contract oscillated, and the position was reduced before the festival. On the spot side, the downstream steel mills have basically completed the replenishment, and at the same time, the transportation has gradually stagnated, and the spot transaction is cold. Fundamentally, the manganese silicon supply has declined slightly, and the recent output has basically remained stable, with the manufacturer's operating rate increasing. The absolute output is at a historically low level. Affected by the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the output has steadily increased; the output in Ningxia has continued to decline; the southern region is affected by the power grid policy adjustment, and there is an expected significant increase in electricity prices in the future. Most manufacturers maintain production suspension, and the output in Guangxi continues to shrink. It is expected that the share of the southern manganese silicon production area will continue to shrink, and the manganese silicon output will remain stable before the festival. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output is expected to remain stable before the festival, and the contradiction on the finished product side is relatively limited. The slow resumption of molten iron production can effectively suppress the increase in the inventory contradiction of finished products. The subsequent resumption of molten iron production is limited by the off-season demand, but negative feedback is difficult to see. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remains high, and the pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, but the order level is relatively low, and the total inventory is moderately high. In terms of cost, the alloy manufacturers' manganese ore procurement is basically over, and the inventory replenishment is weak. The first-round quotation of the outer disk continues to rise, and the maintenance of some mines in Africa has a short-term impact on the supply. The cost support of manganese ore still exists. Affected by the Indonesian coal production restrictions, the price of coking coal soared, driving up the price of coke. Recently, this factor may have an impact on the manganese silicon price, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. Overall, manganese silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still an expectation of resumption of production after the festival, and the fundamentals lack driving force. In the short term, pay attention to macro sentiment disturbances. It is expected that the manganese silicon price will oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5,600 - 6,000 [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,230 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar increased by 12 yuan, 15 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3,260 yuan/ton, 3,160 yuan/ton, and 3,270 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot-rolled coils increased by 13 yuan, 20 yuan, and 23 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3,730 yuan/ton. - The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 3,236 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar decreased by 16 yuan to 3,170 yuan/ton. - The profit of rebar in East China decreased by 6 yuan to -30 yuan/ton, the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 16 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 6 yuan to 160 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot-rolled coils in East China decreased by 6 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, the profit of hot-rolled coils in North China decreased by 6 yuan to -100 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coils in South China increased by 4 yuan to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.0%. - The output of the five major steel products increased by 3.6 tons to 823.2 tons, an increase of 0.4%. - The rebar output increased by 0.3 tons to 199.8 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Among them, the electric furnace output decreased by 1.1 tons to 32.2 tons, a decrease of 3.2%, and the converter output increased by 1.4 tons to 167.6 tons, an increase of 0.8%. - The hot-rolled coil output increased by 3.8 tons to 309.2 tons, an increase of 1.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.4 tons to 1,278.5 tons, an increase of 1.7%. - The rebar inventory increased by 23.4 tons to 475.5 tons, an increase of 5.2%. - The hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 tons to 355.6 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 3.6 tons, a decrease of 12.6%. - The demand for the five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons to 801.7 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. - The demand for rebar decreased by 9.1 tons to 176.4 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. - The demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 1.5 tons to 311.4 tons, an increase of 0.5% [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 4.4 yuan, 4.4 yuan, 4.3 yuan, and 4.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%. - The 05 contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 0.4 yuan, 0.4 yuan, 0.3 yuan, and 0.3 yuan respectively, with an increase of 0.5%, 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.4%. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.0, a decrease of 2.9%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at 11.0 [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons to 2,484.7 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. - The global shipment volume increased by 116.3 tons to 3,094.6 tons, an increase of 3.9%. - The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11,964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume increased by 21.6 tons to 332.3 tons, an increase of 6.9%. - The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.1 tons to 6,072.2 tons, a decrease of 2.6%. - The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.4 tons to 6,817.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons to 17,022.26 tons, an increase of 1.5%. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons to 9,968.6 tons, an increase of 6.2%. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 4.0 days to 27.0 days, an increase of 17.4% [3]. Coke Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,671 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 11 yuan to 1,745 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coke increased by 55 yuan to 1,770 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 48 yuan to 1,832 yuan/ton. - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 29 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton. - The 05 contract of coking coal increased by 42 yuan to 1,209 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract increased by 36 yuan to 1,282 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons to 62.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. - The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 47.0 tons, an increase of 0.2% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 21.5 tons to 960.6 tons, an increase of 2.3%. - The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.9 tons to 84.4 tons, an increase of 3.6%. - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 16.6 tons to 678.2 tons, an increase of 2.5%. - The port inventory increased by 2.0 tons to 198.1 tons, an increase of 1.0% [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The