U.S. stocks traded lower midway through trading, with the Dow Jones index dipping more than 700 points on Monday.The Dow traded down 1.46% to 48,901.83 while the NASDAQ fell 1.03% to 22,650.14. The S&P 500 also fell, dropping, 0.95% to 6,843.89.Check This Out: How To Earn $500 A Month From Goldman Sachs Stock Ahead Of Q4 EarningsLeading and Lagging SectorsConsumer staples shares gained by 1.2% on Monday.In trading on Monday, financials stocks fell by 3.2%.Top HeadlineThe company posted operating earnings, a ...

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Nasdaq Composite increasing by more than 1% on Wednesday [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.57% to 49,814.98, while the Nasdaq gained 1.25% to 22,860.17, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.84% to 6,900.97 [1] Sector Performance - Energy shares saw a gain of 1.6% on Wednesday [1] - In contrast, real estate stocks experienced a decline of 1.2% in trading on Tuesday [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 1.4% month-over-month in December, following a revised gain of 5.4% in November [2] Commodity Prices - Oil prices increased by 4.2% to $64.93, while gold rose by 2.3% to $5,020.40 [3] - Silver prices surged by 6.2% to $78.120, and copper rose by 2.7% to $5.7965 [3] European Market Performance - European shares were higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 1.19%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index increasing by 1.35%, and London's FTSE 100 gaining 1.23% [4] - Germany's DAX rose by 1.12%, and France's CAC 40 climbed by 0.81% during the session [4] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed higher, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 1.02% and India's BSE Sensex increasing by 0.34% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content, so it is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar rose and then fell after the US January non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations but was lower than expected for the whole of 2025. The rubber futures price followed the rebound of commodities this week. Before the Spring Festival holiday, capital adjustment led to wide - range market fluctuations. The data showed economic weakness, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation rebounded [3]. - Overseas rubber - producing areas entered the seasonal production - reduction season, with strong willingness of factories to purchase at higher prices, and raw material prices continued to rise, providing strong cost - side support. The raw material supply was relatively tight during the transition to the off - season, and the purchase price increased significantly [3]. - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased due to the arrival volume. In the future, the rainfall in the Southeast Asian main rubber - producing areas will decrease, and the impact on rubber tapping will weaken [3]. - In February before the Spring Festival, the commodity market fluctuated significantly. Currently, the supply of rubber in the producing areas is stable, and raw material prices are stable with a slight upward trend. The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with weak terminal demand and sufficient supply, and the finished - product inventory is increasing. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern is expected to gradually improve as the output peaks [3]. - The industrial products have been adjusted, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for rubber trading. Avoid chasing high prices at high levels. The support and pressure levels for the RU and NR main contracts are given [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - **Rubber**: The recommended strategy is to go long on dips. The main logic is that the domestic spot inventory has been slightly increasing, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. The support range is 15500 - 15800, the pressure range is 16300 - 16500, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **20 - grade rubber**: The recommended strategy is also to go long on dips. The dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory turning point, the Thai glue price is firm, the output declined in the fourth quarter, and there is still support below. The support range is 12700 - 12800, the pressure range is 13420 - 13805, and the market is expected to recover from the bottom [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber Main - continuous | 16450 | - 0.51 | - 85 | 180678 | 152702 | | 20 - grade Rubber Main - continuous | 13370 | - 0.26 | - 35 | 46594 | 50704 | | Singapore TSR20 Main - continuous | 193 | 0.73 | 1 | 16 | 19281 | [9] 3.2.2 Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - grade rubber is 50803, with a year - on - year change of - 21.50%. The warehouse receipt has rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's inventory - accumulation expectation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.86%. The warehouse receipt was significantly cancelled again today, and the futures inventory decreased sharply year - on - year. The delivery risk of futures contracts increased, which supported the RU futures price [13]. 3.3 Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural Rubber (Yuan/ton) | 16442 | - 109 | - 398 | | Yunnan Glue (Yuan/ton) | 14200 | 0 | - 1800 | | Thai Hat Yai Glue (Thai Baht/kg) | 61 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai Hat Yai Cup Lumps (Thai Baht/kg) | 55 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai 20 - grade Standard Rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 2000 | 35 | - 50 | [18] 3.4 Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Current Value | Month - on - Month | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU Main - contract Basis | Basis | - 133 | - 23 | 412 | | NR Main - contract Basis | Basis | 1755 | - 15 | 45 | | Thai Mixed - RU | Non - standard Basis | - 1320 | - 185 | - 550 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard Basis | 175 | - 40 | 260 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety Spread | 3080 | - 50 | 350 | | Whole Milk - Thai Mixed | Light - and Dark - colored Rubber Spread | 995 | 145 | 535 | [23] 3.5 Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 95 | 5 | 235 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | 20 - grade Rubber | 3 - 4 | - 75 | - 20 | - 215 | Range - bound | Wait and see | [25] 3.6 Industry Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - There is no specific text summary in the provided content, but relevant data can be found in the figures such as ANRPC member countries' overall supply - demand situation, natural and synthetic rubber import volume year - on - year, China's automobile production year - on - year, tire production start - up rate, tire inventory days, and natural rubber inventory [29][30]. 3.7 Option - related Data - There is no specific text summary in the provided content, but relevant data can be found in the figures such as the trading and holding situation of natural rubber options, the put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility [33].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is the daily data report of bottle chips and staple fibers by Guomao Futures Research Institute, dated February 9, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5100 to 5085, a decrease of 15 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3649 to 3630, a decrease of 19 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 5144 to 5166, an increase of 22 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3745 to 3743, a decrease of 2 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6525 to 6535, an increase of 10 [2] - Staple fiber basis increased from 38 to 39, an increase of 1 [2] - 3 - 4 spread remained unchanged at - 80 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5300 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1225 to 1235, an increase of 10 [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6196 to 6247, an increase of 51 [2] - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 6196 to 6247, an increase of 51 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6296 to 6347, an increase of 51 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 835 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 613 to 683, an increase of 70 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4175 to 4165, a decrease of 10 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 15640 to 15615, a decrease of 25 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1562 to 1565, an increase of 3 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7300 to 7290, a decrease of 10 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 517 to 526 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2] Group 3: Market Conditions - Short fiber: The short - fiber main futures fell 16 to 6578. The price of polyester staple fiber production factories fluctuated slightly, the price of traders declined, downstream sporadic purchases were made, and the on - site transactions were few. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6370 - 6700 cash on the spot, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6490 - 6820 cash on the spot, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6470 - 6750 cash on the spot, tax - included delivery [2] - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6210 - 6320 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous working day. The futures prices of PTA and bottle chips fluctuated slightly, the cost - side support was average, most of the supply - side offers remained, the market spot supply was tight, the downstream terminal demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the market negotiation focus was temporarily stable [2] Group 4: Industry Analysis - The commodity market declined significantly. PX maintained fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, the risk of crude oil prices still existed. The downstream PTA industry continued to be strong. The domestic PTA output in January was expected to reach a new high, and there was no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, the existing devices would operate at full capacity to match the growth of polyester demand, providing a solid demand background for PX. The PX supply side was still tight. The South Korean TDP device increased its load, and a PX factory in the Middle East was scheduled to shut down before February, with limited global effective production capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene price difference remained at about 150 US dollars. In terms of the profit structure, although the PX - naphtha price difference fell to 335 US dollars/ton, it was still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintained high - level operation, domestic demand declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories had a limited negative feedback on PTA. The profit of bottle chips expanded, and the profit of short fibers declined [2] Group 5: Operating Rate and Sales - The direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07% [3] - The polyester staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 46.00% to 52.00%, an increase of 6.00% [3] - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, an increase of 0.32% [3] - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 54.81% to 55.44%, a decrease of 0.63% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still an oil price risk. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA output in January expected to hit a record high and no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA capacity throughout the year, existing plants will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight. The global effective capacity release is limited. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the polyester factory's production cuts have a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene glycol: After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines to produce polyethylene in mid - February, with the duration of the conversion undetermined. This has led to a significant increase in speculative market demand, and the supply contraction has opened up room for price increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price increased from 449.4 yuan/barrel on February 3, 2026, to 462.4 yuan/barrel on February 4, 2026, a rise of 13 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA - SC decreased from 1884.2 yuan/ton to 1857.7 yuan/ton, a drop of 26.47 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.5769 to 1.5528, a decrease of 0.0241; CFR China PX increased from 897 to 902, a rise of 5; PX - naphtha spread increased from 316 to 318, a rise of 3 [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 5150 yuan/ton to 5218 yuan/ton, a rise of 68 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 5080 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton, a rise of 60 yuan/ton; spot processing fee increased from 371.2 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton, a rise of 33.8 yuan/ton; on - disk processing fee increased from 436.2 yuan/ton to 483 yuan/ton, a rise of 46.8 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from - 68 to - 62, a rise of 6; PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 103,568 [2] - MEG main contract futures price increased from 3767 yuan/ton to 3788 yuan/ton, a rise of 21 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from - 179.84 yuan/ton to - 172.03 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price increased from 3670 yuan/ton to 3675 yuan/ton, a rise of 5 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from - 122 to - 103, a rise of 19 [2] - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 85.92%; PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 75.63%; MEG operating rate decreased from 62.48% to 61.67%, a drop of 0.81%; polyester load decreased from 79.76% to 79.24%, a drop of 0.52% [2] - POY150D/48F decreased from 7095 yuan/ton to 7020 yuan/ton, a drop of 75 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 272 yuan/ton to 144 yuan/ton, a drop of 128 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F decreased from 7295 yuan/ton to 7255 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from - 28 yuan/ton to - 121 yuan/ton, a drop of 93 yuan/ton; DTY150D/48F decreased from 8210 yuan/ton to 8155 yuan/ton, a drop of 55 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 187 yuan/ton to 79 yuan/ton, a drop of 108 yuan/ton; filament sales increased from 24% to 30%, a rise of 6% [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6555 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a drop of 6617 yuan/ton; polyester staple cash flow decreased from 82 yuan/ton to - 6588 yuan/ton, a drop of 6670 yuan/ton; staple fiber sales decreased from 65% to 64%, a drop of 1% [2] - Semi - bright chip increased from 5860 yuan/ton to 5910 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton; chip cash flow decreased from - 63 yuan/ton to - 66 yuan/ton, a drop of 3 yuan/ton; chip sales increased from 78% to 105%, a rise of 27% [2] Device Maintenance - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th. A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market has significantly declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the geopolitical risks in Iran, the risk of crude oil prices still exists. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA output in January is expected to reach a record high, with no plans for Spring Festival production cuts. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply side remains tight. The South Korean TDP plant has increased its load, and a PX plant in the Middle East is scheduled to shut down before February, resulting in limited global effective capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene spread remains around $150. In terms of the profit structure, although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative feedback on PTA. Bottle chip profits are expanding, while short - fiber profits are declining [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Price and Price Change - PTA spot price increased from 5080 to 5140, a change of 60; MEG domestic price increased from 3670 to 3675, a change of 5; PTA closing price increased from 5150 to 5218, a change of 68; MEG closing price increased from 3767 to 3788, a change of 21; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6555 to 6575, a change of 20; short - fiber basis decreased from 28 to 12, a change of - 16; 3 - 4 spread decreased from - 50 to - 70, a change of - 20; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5300; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1255 to 1275, a change of 20; East China water bottle chip price increased from 6187 to 6256, a change of 69; hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 6187 to 6256, a change of 69; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6287 to 6356, a change of 69; external water bottle chip price increased from 825 to 835, a change of 10; bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 614 to 630, a change of 16; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4145 to 4125, a change of - 20; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800; cotton 328 price increased from 15650 to 15660, a change of 10; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1538 to 1521, a change of - 17; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7300; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 527 to 474, a change of - 53; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2] Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 57.00% to 56.00%, a change of - 1.00%; polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, negatively impacting the crude oil market. The downstream polyester industry's operating load has room to decline, leading to accelerated PTA inventory accumulation and a drop in PTA prices. Despite the decline in the PX - naphtha spread, PX fundamentals remain resilient. The PTA industry in China is expected to maintain high production, providing strong support for PX demand. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback effect on PTA [2]. - MEG: After a long - term slump in the overseas ethylene glycol market, a decrease in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. A production - line switch at a factory in Jiangsu has led to a contraction in supply, creating room for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price increased from 449.0 yuan/barrel on February 2, 2026, to 449.4 yuan/barrel on February 3, 2026, with a change of 0.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA: The PTA - SC spread increased by 55.09 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio rose by 0.0164. The PTA主力期价 increased by 58.0 yuan/ton, while the PTA现货 price decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton. The现货 processing fee decreased by 35.7 yuan/ton, and the盘面加工费 increased by 32.3 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: The MEG主力期价 remained unchanged at 3767 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, and the MEG内盘 price decreased by 52.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PX: CFR中国PX price increased by 6, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 21 [2]. - Polyester Products: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25.0, FDY150D/96F price decreased by 25.0, DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged. The long - filament sales rate increased from 18% to 24%. The 1.4D直纺涤短 price increased by 10. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 66% to 65%. The semi - light slice price remained unchanged. The slice sales rate increased from 54% to 78% [2]. 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 85.92% - PTA开工率 remained at 75.63% - MEG开工率 remained at 62.48% - Polyester负荷 remained at 79.76% [2] 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to stop for maintenance on the 15th. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is expected to stop on the 16th and is tentatively planned to restart in early March [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs observation, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - For precious metals, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude due to multiple factors [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term pressures, some metals may stabilize in the future [16][19]. - For black building materials, the market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations [34]. - For energy chemicals, different strategies such as taking profit on rallies, short - selling, etc. are proposed for different products [61][65]. - For agricultural products, different strategies are given according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as short - selling on rebounds, waiting for callbacks to buy, etc. [84][92] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, China's January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from the previous month, and precious metals tumbled [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - run as policies support the capital market, but pay attention to short - term market rhythms [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had different price changes on Friday. The government emphasized the economic work in 2026, and the 2025 national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% compared to 2024 [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices plunged due to Warsh's nomination and other factors. The short - term dollar is expected to remain strong, and emerging markets may face capital outflows and currency depreciation [9]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 950 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by geopolitical and Fed news, the copper price fell on Friday. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term pressure factors, the copper price is expected to stabilize gradually. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 102000 - 106000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12600 - 13500 dollars/ton [16]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fell on Friday. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [17]. - **Strategy**: If the precious - metal volatility decreases and domestic inventory performs better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3080 - 3180 dollars/ton [19]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The zinc price followed the sector. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [20]. - **Lead**: The lead industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [21]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has a large short - term decline risk. It is recommended to sell on rallies. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 12.0 - 15.0 million yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 1.6 - 1.8 million dollars/ton [22]. - **Tin**: The tin price may have a large short - term correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47000 - 51000 dollars/ton [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium main contract is 136000 - 158000 yuan/ton [26]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 2950 yuan/ton [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: Maintain a bullish view. It is recommended to lightly build long positions around 14000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14700 yuan/ton [30]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term price is supported by supply - side disturbances [32]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased on Friday. The inventory of rebar is accumulating, while that of hot - rolled coil is slightly decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: The black - building materials market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory changes, plate - demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [34]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract price fell on Friday. The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel - mill inventory is increasing [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to steel - mill restocking and iron - water production rhythms [36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated on January 30th. The coking - coal price is in a rebound cycle, and the coke price is approaching a long - term downward trend line [37]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to market - sentiment fluctuations [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass price increased on Friday, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price increased on Friday, and the inventory increased. The market is expected to have a weak and stable fluctuation in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased on January 30th. The prices of both are in an oscillatory state [47]. - **Strategy**: The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Pay attention to manganese - ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial - silicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of the large - factory production - reduction plan [51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Pay attention to terminal - demand feedback and policy adjustments [53][54]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber market has large price fluctuations. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - enterprise开工率 has different changes, and the inventory is increasing [56][57]. - **Strategy**: Trade according to the short - term disk, set stop - losses, and consider building positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil main contract price increased, and the inventories of some refined oils changed. The gasoline inventory increased, while the diesel and fuel - oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [61]. Other Energy Chemicals - **Methanol**: The current price has priced in most of the geopolitical premium, and the upside space is under pressure [63]. - **Urea**: The import window is opened, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [65]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The pure - benzene price increased, and the styrene price decreased. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is recommended to gradually take profit [66][68]. - **PVC**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to changes in production capacity and开工率 [69][70]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene - glycol market has a high load and high inventory. The supply - demand situation needs to be improved through production reduction [71][72]. - **PTA**: The PTA market is in the Spring - Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Pay attention to the risk of processing - fee correction and mid - term long - position opportunities [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and pay attention to long - position opportunities following the crude - oil price [75][76]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The PE futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [77][79]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The PP futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [80][81]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mainly increased over the weekend. The supply is large in the short - term, and the demand is relatively stable [83]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support level [84]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price generally decreased over the weekend. The supply is normal, and the demand is weak [85]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month contract may continue to correct its valuation. It is recommended to short - sell [86]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein - meal futures price fell on Friday. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories decreased. The overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season [87][89]. - **Strategy**: The protein - meal price may be bottoming out [89]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil - and - fat futures price fell on Friday. The Malaysian palm - oil production decreased in January, and the domestic three - major oil inventories decreased [91][92]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback and then try to go long [92]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price fluctuated on Friday. The Brazilian and Indian sugar productions had different changes, and China's sugar imports increased [93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern - hemisphere harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price fell on Friday. The spinning - mill开机率 decreased, and the global cotton production and consumption have different changes [96][97]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room to rise in the long - term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market has neutral fundamentals with no significant contradictions, and steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation [3]. - The overall commodity market is strongly bullish, and iron ore prices deviate from fundamentals in the short - term. Iron ore supply and demand are both weak, but there is support from the steel industry chain, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - The coking coal market shows a stage - excess pattern currently. The supply - demand structure may improve around the Spring Festival, but the long - term trend is hard to change. If there is a combination of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side, with silicon manganese suppressed by high inventory. Silicon iron has a slightly better fundamental situation, and in the short - term, ferroalloys are in a range - bound oscillation between the cost line and the previous pressure level [48]. - The soda ash market has an increasing supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [62]. - The float glass market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and supply uncertainties. The high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [86]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3211, 3128, and 3177 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3336, 3288, and 3311 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of螺纹钢 and热卷 were 83 and 48 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 49 and - 23 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were - 34 and - 25 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The national aggregated price of螺纹钢 was 3317 yuan/ton; the aggregated prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places varied. The basis of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different contracts and regions also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio**: The ratios of 01螺纹/01铁矿 and 01螺纹/01焦炭 were both 4 and 2 respectively [17]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760, 791.5, and 772.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of different contracts also changed [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average hot metal output was 227.98 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons, etc. [26]. Coal - Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of焦煤 and焦炭 changed. The盘面焦化利润 was - 24 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of different types of焦 coal and coke in various regions remained stable on January 30, 2026 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 104 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis in Inner Mongolia was 178 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 108 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1266, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads also changed [63]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of重碱 and轻碱 in different regions remained stable, and the spread between重碱 and轻碱 varied by region [63]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1056, 1167, and 1224 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads and basis in different regions changed [87]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as沙河, Hubei, etc. were reported [88].

Group 1: Report Basics - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton prices soared. The latest price index for 328-grade cotton was 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis for 31-grade double 29/ impurity within 3 for machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar in the 2025/26 season was mostly at CF05 + 950 or higher, with the 950 - 1000 basis range narrowing. In northern Xinjiang, it was mostly above 1100, with some below, and many quotes close to 1200 or higher, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was divided. Some inland spinning enterprises gradually reduced production capacity, and small spinning enterprises began to take holidays. Orders lacked sustainability, and the focus was on inventory preparation. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a certain level of sales and high operation rates. The demand in the all-cotton grey fabric market decreased, and fabric mills were winding down. Spot market inquiries declined. In terms of varieties, the sales of regular C32S, C21S, and lower-grade yarn cards were weaker than before, and current prices remained stable [7]. Market Analysis - Macroeconomically, due to Trump's "yo-yo" remarks on the US dollar and signs that traders were watching for possible coordinated actions by the US and Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index hit a four-year low, and the commodity market was generally strong. Overseas, according to the US Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 7% slower year-on-year (the estimated US cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 2.95 million tons). The overseas market rebounded from a low. In the domestic market, the expected decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season had been partially factored in, and the reduction plan was to be gradually implemented over 3 - 5 years. On the demand side, orders for some medium and high-grade varieties were stable, while others were weak. Manufacturers in the yarn and fabric sectors were eager to collect payments, and most merchants expected enterprises to start taking holidays next week. Affected by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of the week ending January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, up from 36.3% the previous week, compared with 46.3% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 40.9% [9]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the yarn production of large-scale enterprises in December 2025 was 2.132 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. The cumulative yarn production from January to December was 22.158 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The fabric production of large-scale enterprises in December 2025 was 3.01 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The cumulative fabric production from January to December was 30.67 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, CF spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][29]