Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, with upward adjustments of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the October World Economic Outlook [2] - The IMF attributes the improved growth forecast to China's commendable macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [2][3] - Key policy priorities identified by the IMF include transitioning to a consumption-driven growth model, reducing reliance on exports and investment, and implementing more robust expansionary macroeconomic policies [3][4] Group 2 - The IMF forecasts that China's overall inflation will rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026, remaining lower than that of trade partners [3] - The current account surplus is expected to reach 3.3% of GDP in 2025 [3] - Structural reforms are recommended to address productivity slowdown and labor force shrinkage, with priorities including opening up the service sector and improving competition among enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed its Article IV consultation visit to China, projecting economic growth rates of 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, reflecting an upward revision due to macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [1][2]. Group 1 - The IMF's growth forecast for China in 2025 has been increased by 0.2 percentage points, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points compared to the October World Economic Outlook [1]. - IMF President Kristalina Georgieva noted that the expected slowdown in 2026 is attributed to trade friction potentially affecting export growth and the time required for policy measures to stimulate the economy [1]. - The projected growth rate of 4.5% for 2026 remains significantly higher than the IMF's global economic growth forecast of 3.2%, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy [1]. Group 2 - Sonali Jain-Chandra highlighted the resilience of the Chinese economy despite recent shocks, attributing it to recent policy measures and reduced bilateral tariffs between the U.S. and China [2]. - The IMF anticipates that average inflation will rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026 [2]. - To transition to a consumption-driven growth model, the IMF recommends a "more urgent and forceful package of policies" to mitigate risks and maintain robust mid-term growth [2]. - The IMF projects that through expansionary macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, China's GDP could increase by approximately 2.5 percentage points by 2030, enhancing living standards and contributing to a stronger global economy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shown optimism regarding China's economic resilience, projecting growth rates of 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, which are upward revisions from previous forecasts due to effective macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The IMF has adjusted its growth forecasts for China, expecting a 5.0% growth in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to earlier estimates [2]. - The projected growth rate for 2026 is lower than that of 2025, attributed to potential trade friction impacting export growth and the time required for policy measures to stimulate the economy [2]. Group 2: Economic Resilience and Policy Recommendations - Despite facing multiple shocks in recent years, China's economy has demonstrated significant resilience, primarily due to recently announced policy measures and reduced bilateral tariffs with the U.S. [2]. - The IMF suggests that a transition to a consumption-driven growth model aligns with China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and recommends a more urgent and robust policy package to address risks and maintain steady mid-term growth [2]. - The IMF anticipates that through expansionary macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, China's GDP could increase by approximately 2.5 percentage points by 2030, enhancing living standards and contributing to a stronger global economy [3].

国际货币基金组织（IMF）完成了2025年中国第四条款磋商访问。IMF预计，中国经济在2025年和2026年将分别增长5.0%和4.5%。相较10月《世界经济展望》分别上调了0.2个和0.3个百分点，主要原因是中国采取了值得欢迎的宏观经济刺激措施，且美方对华关税低于预期水平。IMF总裁谈中国科技政策时表示，中国应更多支持私营部门对科技发展方向的押注。希望看到市场力量决定创新型企业的发展壮大，竞争发挥更大作用。 ...