Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report - Report Date: November 13, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The prices of iron ore and coking coal have formed a seesaw effect again. The sharp decline in coking coal prices provides room for the rebound of iron ore prices. In the short term, the iron ore price may be repaired, and the decline rate may slow down. However, the overall supply is still excessive, and the inventory at ports continues to accumulate. In general, the short - term price tends to fluctuate with no significant driving force [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The price forecast range for the iron ore 12 - contract in November is 770 - 826, with the current at - the - money option IV at 18.54% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For those with current iron ore inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies are: directly shorting iron ore futures (I2512) to lock in profits with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advised entry range of 820 - 830; selling call options (I2512 - C - 830) to collect premiums with a hedging ratio of 30% and selling at high prices [2] Procurement Management - For those who need to purchase iron ore in the future and are worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are: directly going long on iron ore futures (I2512) to lock in costs with a hedging ratio of 30% and an advised entry range of 780 - 790; selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780), holding long futures positions if the price falls below the strike price, with a hedging ratio of 40% and selling at high prices [2] Core Contradictions - The prices of iron ore and coking coal form a seesaw effect. The sharp decline in coking coal prices provides room for iron ore price rebound. The short - term price may be repaired due to reduced iron ore shipments, improved steel mill profits, weakened coking coal suppression, and a previously high basis. However, the downstream steel market has weak supply and demand, and the high - inventory problem persists. The overall supply is excessive, and the port inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged. There is a short - term structural shortage of iron ore, and the deliverable inventory is low, resulting in a continuously rising basis despite inventory accumulation [3] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The basis is rising, and in the medium - to - long - term, both overseas monetary and fiscal policies are loose [4] Bearish Factors - The macro - economy is weakening marginally, with the PMI in China and the US declining month - on - month; iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventory is accumulating above the seasonal level; hot - rolled coil inventory is continuously accumulating above the seasonal level, with production still at a high level and overall demand lacking momentum; steel mills are reducing production but not completely, and the demand for plates is still high; the strength of coking coal squeezes the space for iron ore [4][5][7] Price Data Futures Closing Prices and Basis - On November 13, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 772.5, 745.5, and 723 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.5, - 2, and - 1.5, and weekly changes of - 5, - 10.5, and - 12 respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 bases were 6, 32.5, and 55.5 respectively, with daily changes of - 4, - 4, and - 4, and weekly changes of - 1.5, 3.5, and 5.5 respectively [6] Spot Prices - On November 13, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder and Rizhao Carajás fines were 780 and 880 respectively, with daily changes of - 4 and - 4, and weekly changes of - 5 and - 13 respectively [6] Platts Index - On November 12, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 92.45, 103.6, and 115.6 respectively, with daily changes of 1, 1.25, and 1.1, and weekly changes of - 1, - 1.3, and - 1.8 respectively [8] Fundamental Data - As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22, a weekly decrease of 2.14 and a monthly decrease of 7.32; the 45 - port deshipping volume was 320.93, a weekly increase of 0.77 and a monthly decrease of 6.07; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 867, a weekly decrease of 49 and a monthly increase of 116; the global shipping volume was 3069, a weekly decrease of 144.8 and a monthly decrease of 138.5; the Australia - Brazil shipping volume was 2443.3, a weekly decrease of 240.2 and a monthly decrease of 223.2; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2741.2, a weekly decrease of 477.2 and a monthly decrease of 304.6; the 45 - port inventory was 14898.83, a weekly increase of 356.35 and a monthly increase of 874.33; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 9009.94, a weekly increase of 160.08 and a monthly decrease of 36.25; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.21, a weekly increase of 0.86 and a monthly increase of 0.97 [16]