1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market's medium - to long - term outlook is bullish due to the international geopolitical conflicts boosting the sentiment of bulk commodities, the rush for export shipments supporting the spot market, and the mercury - free transformation raising the long - term cost expectations. However, the short - term supply - demand remains weak due to post - holiday inventory accumulation and incomplete downstream resumption. The market sentiment is expected to improve with downstream resumption, spring maintenance expectations, and the strengthened macro - expectations from the Two Sessions. But the support from exports will gradually weaken as the export window closes [3]. - The price of caustic soda is mainly stable, with low - price warehouse receipts suppressing market sentiment. The supply side has a slightly increased operating rate and high inventory due to logistics and downstream factors during the festival. The demand side has a general receiving sentiment, with some alumina plant maintenance and a delayed alumina project in Guangxi. The main contract has a large premium, and the macro - expectations are improving with the Two Sessions. Attention should be paid to relevant policy dynamics, alumina operating dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythms [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,939 yuan/ton (+71), the East China basis is - 259 yuan/ton (-31), and the South China basis is - 129 yuan/ton (-41) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,680 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (+30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,755 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is - 83 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 439 yuan/ton (+157), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is 11 yuan/ton (-102), and the PVC export profit is 23.3 US dollars/ton (-3.9) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - plant PVC inventory is 50.4 tons (-0.1), the social PVC inventory is 61.6 tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 81.77% (+0.59%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 80.40% (+1.53%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 81.35% (+0.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 78.0 tons (-2.3) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,149 yuan/ton (+67), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 168 yuan/ton (-73) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 634 yuan/ton (-2), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,020 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 973 yuan/ton (-6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 338.0 yuan/ton (-6.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 128.96 yuan/ton (+68.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 736.79 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 54.09 tons (+9.80), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 4.40 tons (+0.46), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.90% (-0.70%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 82.81% (-0.37%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 24.34% (+24.34%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled from April 1st. Upstream export orders were signed before the festival until March. India has launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, reducing the long - term export expectations. The current supply - demand pattern remains weak. The supply is abundant with no new maintenance enterprises, but the spring maintenance expectations in April are increasing. The downstream operating rate has not returned to the pre - festival level, and the social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March will increase the spot pressure. However, the international geopolitical conflicts have boosted the sentiment of bulk commodities, and the rush for export shipments has supported the spot market. The mercury - free transformation has raised the long - term cost expectations [3]. Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda is mainly stable, and low - price warehouse receipts suppress the market sentiment. The operating rate of some liquid chlorine downstream has recovered, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - side operating rate has increased slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased during the festival due to logistics and downstream factors. The demand - side receiving sentiment is general, with some alumina plant maintenance and a delayed alumina project in Guangxi. The main contract has a large premium, and the macro - expectations are improving with the Two Sessions [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillating and bullish - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillating - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]