1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market's medium - to long - term outlook is bullish due to the international geopolitical conflicts boosting the sentiment of bulk commodities, the rush for export shipments supporting the spot market, and the mercury - free transformation raising the long - term cost expectations. However, the short - term supply - demand remains weak due to post - holiday inventory accumulation and incomplete downstream resumption. The market sentiment is expected to improve with downstream resumption, spring maintenance expectations, and the strengthened macro - expectations from the Two Sessions. But the support from exports will gradually weaken as the export window closes [3]. - The price of caustic soda is mainly stable, with low - price warehouse receipts suppressing market sentiment. The supply side has a slightly increased operating rate and high inventory due to logistics and downstream factors during the festival. The demand side has a general receiving sentiment, with some alumina plant maintenance and a delayed alumina project in Guangxi. The main contract has a large premium, and the macro - expectations are improving with the Two Sessions. Attention should be paid to relevant policy dynamics, alumina operating dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythms [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,939 yuan/ton (+71), the East China basis is - 259 yuan/ton (-31), and the South China basis is - 129 yuan/ton (-41) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,680 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (+30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,755 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is - 83 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 439 yuan/ton (+157), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is 11 yuan/ton (-102), and the PVC export profit is 23.3 US dollars/ton (-3.9) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - plant PVC inventory is 50.4 tons (-0.1), the social PVC inventory is 61.6 tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 81.77% (+0.59%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 80.40% (+1.53%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 81.35% (+0.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 78.0 tons (-2.3) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,149 yuan/ton (+67), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 168 yuan/ton (-73) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 634 yuan/ton (-2), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,020 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 973 yuan/ton (-6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 338.0 yuan/ton (-6.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 128.96 yuan/ton (+68.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 736.79 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 54.09 tons (+9.80), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 4.40 tons (+0.46), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.90% (-0.70%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 82.81% (-0.37%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 24.34% (+24.34%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled from April 1st. Upstream export orders were signed before the festival until March. India has launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, reducing the long - term export expectations. The current supply - demand pattern remains weak. The supply is abundant with no new maintenance enterprises, but the spring maintenance expectations in April are increasing. The downstream operating rate has not returned to the pre - festival level, and the social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March will increase the spot pressure. However, the international geopolitical conflicts have boosted the sentiment of bulk commodities, and the rush for export shipments has supported the spot market. The mercury - free transformation has raised the long - term cost expectations [3]. Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda is mainly stable, and low - price warehouse receipts suppress the market sentiment. The operating rate of some liquid chlorine downstream has recovered, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - side operating rate has increased slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased during the festival due to logistics and downstream factors. The demand - side receiving sentiment is general, with some alumina plant maintenance and a delayed alumina project in Guangxi. The main contract has a large premium, and the macro - expectations are improving with the Two Sessions [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillating and bullish - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillating - Inter - period: Wait - and - see - Inter - variety: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are strong. The short - term supply - demand remains weak, and market sentiment is expected to improve later. For caustic soda, the spot price has a slight increase, and attention should be paid to the alumina start - up dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythm [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4868 yuan/ton (+76); the East China basis is - 228 yuan/ton (-46); the South China basis is - 88 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+30); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 58 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 439 yuan/ton (+157); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 11 yuan/ton (-102); the PVC export profit is 27.2 US dollars/ton (+10.6) [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The in - factory PVC inventory is 50.4 tons (-0.1); the social PVC inventory is 61.6 tons (+0.1); the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 81.77% (+0.59%); the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 80.40% (+1.53%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 81.35% (+0.87%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 78.0 tons (-2.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2082 yuan/ton (-43); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 95 yuan/ton (+49) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 636 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1020 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 979 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 344.3 yuan/ton (+79.2); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 197.71 yuan/ton (+50.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 716.79 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 54.09 tons (+9.80); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 4.40 tons (+0.46); the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.90% (-0.70%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 82.81% (-0.37%); the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 24.34% (+24.34%); the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - From April 1st, the export tax rebate for PVC is cancelled. The upstream export orders were signed until March before the festival, and the export orders this week increased slightly compared with before the festival. India launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, and the long - term export expectation decreased. The current supply is abundant, and there are no new maintenance enterprises, but the expectation of spring maintenance in April increases. The downstream start - up has not returned to the pre - festival level, the social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year, and the PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, with increased spot pressure after the cancellation of warehouse receipts in March. Although the supply - demand is weak, the international geopolitical conflict over the weekend has strengthened the sentiment of the overall commodity market, and the rush to export has supported the spot. The mercury - free transformation has increased the market's expectation of the long - term cost of PVC. The short - term supply - demand remains weak, but the market sentiment is expected to improve later [3] Caustic Soda - Some traders and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks for rigid demand, and the spot price of caustic soda has increased slightly. The start - up of some liquid chlorine downstream industries has recovered, the liquid chlorine price has increased, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - side start - up rate has increased slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. During the festival, due to logistics restrictions and reduced downstream start - up, the caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased. The demand - side receiving sentiment is average, some alumina plants are under maintenance, the start - up has decreased slightly, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The non - aluminum start - up decreased before the festival, the procurement behavior during the Spring Festival weakened, and the start - up and rigid - demand procurement increased after the festival. The low - price warehouse receipts have suppressed the market sentiment, and the main contract has a large premium. Attention should be paid to the alumina start - up dynamics, liquid chlorine price fluctuations, and downstream procurement rhythm [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillate in the short term, pay attention to downstream procurement sentiment - Inter - period: Wait and see - Inter - variety: None [5]

Group 1 - The PVC market is expected to continue its downward trend through 2025, with the chlor-alkali industry benefiting from a cost advantage due to the alkali supplementing chlorine strategy [1] - The concentration of the PVC industry is steadily increasing, with the annual capacity concentration (CR10) projected to rise from 35.59% in 2021 to 40.17% in 2025 [1] - The chlor-alkali industry's capacity growth is slowing down, leading to clearer industry layouts and larger average scales for individual enterprises [1] Group 2 - The domestic PVC market has been in a prolonged downturn since the second half of 2022, with many production companies reporting losses in 2023 and an increase in loss-making companies expected in 2024 [1] - Over 1.3 million tons of PVC production capacity has been idled for more than a year [1] - The national "dual carbon" policies are guiding the industry, with a focus on energy transition and industrial upgrading as part of the strategy to achieve carbon peak goals [1] Group 3 - The calcium carbide method currently dominates the PVC industry in China, and the transition to mercury-free production is expected to accelerate [2] - The Minamata Convention on Mercury has expanded its control over mercury-containing products and processes, with the elimination timeline for mercury processes in PVC production becoming a focal point in recent negotiations [2] - China has successfully met the target of halving mercury use per unit of PVC product by 2020 compared to 2010, and further efforts will focus on developing mercury-free catalysts and enhancing policy support [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the PVC industry [1] Core Insights - The PVC industry's long-term outlook is positive, driven by national "dual carbon" policies and the accelerated transition to mercury-free production [2] - The PVC market is expected to continue its downward trend in 2025, with the chlor-alkali industry benefiting from cost advantages among leading companies [3] - Key companies recommended for investment include Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Junzheng Group, Beiyuan Group, Huashu Co., Tianyuan Co., and Jiahua Energy, with a focus on mercury-free catalyst research and development [3] - The concentration of the PVC industry is on the rise, with the annual capacity concentration (CR10) projected to increase from 35.59% in 2021 to 40.17% in 2025 [3] - The domestic PVC market has been sluggish since the second half of 2022, with increasing losses among production companies in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The PVC industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards mercury-free production, with the government emphasizing green transition and energy security [3] - The dominant production method in the PVC industry is currently the calcium carbide method, which is expected to transition to mercury-free processes [3] Key Companies and Valuation - Key company valuations indicate that Kaili New Materials is rated "Accumulate" with an expected EPS of 0.71 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.82 yuan by 2026 [4] - Other companies listed include Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, and Junzheng Group, with varying EPS forecasts and PE ratios [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current overall supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak, but the "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot. The market sentiment is expected to improve with the recovery of downstream construction, the increasing expectation of spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations. For caustic soda, the spot price has risen slightly due to replenishment by some traders and downstream industries. The market procurement sentiment is expected to improve after the festival as downstream industries resume work and release replenishment demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4963 yuan/ton (+15), the East China basis is - 233 yuan/ton (-15), and the South China basis is - 103 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (+30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (-50), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 58 yuan/ton (+40), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method is - 596 yuan/ton (+102), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method is 113 yuan/ton (-16), and the PVC export profit is 16.3 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 50.5 tons (+19.3), the social inventory of PVC is 61.5 tons (+0.1), the operation rate of PVC by calcium carbide method is 81.18% (+0.40%), the operation rate of PVC by ethylene method is 78.87% (+5.18%), and the overall operation rate of PVC is 80.48% (+1.86%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 80.3 tons (-21.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2167 yuan/ton (+197), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 201 yuan/ton (-163) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 629 yuan/ton (+11), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 949 yuan/ton (+34), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 147.9 yuan/ton (+34.4), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 204.08 yuan/ton (+34.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 796.29 yuan/ton (+56.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 44.29 tons (+0.00), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.94 tons (+1.16), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 85.60% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 83.18% (-0.28%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 0.00% (+0.00%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.15%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, leading to strong export orders due to the "rush to export". The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern remains weak. The supply is abundant, and the expectation of spring maintenance in April is increasing. The downstream operation decreased significantly during the Spring Festival and will gradually recover. The social inventory has increased after the festival and is at a high level year - on - year. The production profit of upstream chlor - alkali has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still pressure for hedging on the futures market. Although the supply - demand is weak, the "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the market expectation is strong. However, the inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival and the incomplete recovery of downstream operation will keep the short - term supply - demand weak. The market sentiment is expected to improve with the recovery of downstream operation, the increasing expectation of spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations [3] Caustic Soda - Some traders and downstream industries replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. The cost support has weakened compared with before the festival. The supply has decreased slightly as some enterprises in Shandong reduced their production. The inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased during the festival. The demand is average, and the market's motivation to purchase caustic soda is insufficient. There is some purchase demand after the festival. The export orders improved slightly before the festival. The warehouse receipts of caustic soda suppress the futures market, but the market procurement sentiment is expected to improve after the festival [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread between V05 and V09 when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to downstream procurement sentiment - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread between SH04 and SH05 when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot. With the recovery of downstream operations, the expected increase in spring maintenance, and the strengthening of macro - expectations, the market is expected to gradually improve [3]. - After the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream users replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. Although the cost support has weakened, the market procurement sentiment is expected to improve as downstream operations resume and restocking demand is released [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,948 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis was - 218 yuan/ton (-43), and the South China basis was - 118 yuan/ton (-53) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,780 yuan/ton (-165), the calcium carbide profit was - 98 yuan/ton (-165), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method was - 596 yuan/ton (+102), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method was 113 yuan/ton (-16), and the PVC export profit was 16.3 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 50.5 tons (+19.3), the social PVC inventory was 61.5 tons (+0.1), the operation rate of PVC by calcium carbide method was 81.18% (+0.40%), the operation rate of PVC by ethylene method was 78.87% (+5.18%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 80.48% (+1.86%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 80.3 tons (-21.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 1,970 yuan/ton (-45), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 39 yuan/ton (+95) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 618 yuan/ton (+13), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,000 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 915 yuan/ton (+41), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 113.5 yuan/ton (+200.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was - 238.46 yuan/ton (+271.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 44.29 tons (+0.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 3.94 tons (+1.16), and the caustic soda operation rate was 85.60% (-2.00%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina was 83.18% (-0.28%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 0.00% (+0.00%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 88.43% (+0.15%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. The "rush to export" led to strong export orders, but the export orders declined before the festival. The upstream inventory pressure was not large. The overall supply - demand pattern remained weak, with sufficient domestic supply and an expected increase in spring maintenance in April. The downstream operation rate decreased significantly during the Spring Festival and will gradually recover after the festival. The social inventory increased after the festival and was at a high level year - on - year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit was slightly repaired but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price decreased, and the semi - coke price was stable. The semi - coke profit was still in a loss. The PVC warehouse receipts were at a high level in the same period, and there was still pressure on the futures market for hedging. Although the supply - demand was weak, the "rush to export" sentiment supported the spot, and the market expected the long - term cost of PVC to increase. With the valuation repair of the chemical industry, the market expectation for PVC was strong. However, the inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival and the incomplete recovery of downstream operations will keep the short - term supply - demand weak. As the downstream operations recover, the expectation of spring maintenance increases, and the macro - expectations strengthen, the market is expected to improve [3]. Caustic Soda - After the Spring Festival, some traders and downstream users replenished their stocks, leading to a slight increase in the spot price of caustic soda. The subsidy for liquid chlorine during the festival decreased, and the cost support weakened compared with before the festival. Some enterprises in Shandong reduced their production, and the supply decreased slightly. The low - price spot before the festival stimulated the stocking sentiment, and the caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased. The demand side had a general receiving sentiment. Some alumina plants were under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly. The anti - involution of alumina led to a decrease in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi was postponed, and the market's purchasing power for caustic soda was insufficient. There was some purchasing demand after the festival. The non - aluminum operation rate decreased before the festival, and the purchasing behavior during the Spring Festival weakened. The export orders improved slightly before the festival. Currently, the caustic soda warehouse receipts suppressed the futures market, but the market purchasing sentiment is expected to improve as the downstream operations resume and the restocking demand is released [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to downstream purchasing sentiment - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity: None [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. Although the "rush to export" has supported the spot, factors such as high social inventory, cost at a low - level compared to the same period, and high - level of warehouse receipts still exist. The long - term cost expectation of PVC has increased, and the future trend needs to focus on spot price acceptance, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The reduction of liquid chlorine price has strengthened the cost support, and the inventory in some areas has decreased. However, the demand side is generally weak, and the market purchasing power is insufficient. After the Spring Festival, the sentiment may improve with the resumption of work and restocking demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4938 yuan/ton (- 52), the East China basis is - 208 yuan/ton (+ 42), and the South China basis is - 98 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4840 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2945 yuan/ton (+ 15), the calcium carbide profit is 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), the production gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method is - 698 yuan/ton (- 39), the production gross profit of PVC ethylene method is 129 yuan/ton (+ 26), and the PVC export profit is 15.4 US dollars/ton (+ 0.2) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), the social inventory of PVC is 61.4 tons (+ 2.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 80.78% (+ 0.41%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene method is 73.69% (+ 0.44%), and the overall operation rate of PVC is 78.62% (+ 0.41%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 101.3 tons (- 5.8) [1] Market Analysis - The cancellation of export tax rebates for PVC since April 1 has led to strong export orders before, but recently the export orders have declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream operation rate has decreased significantly before the Spring Festival, and the social inventory has increased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period. The cost of upstream chlor - alkali production has been slightly repaired, and the calcium carbide price has increased slightly, while the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still hedging pressure on the disk [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1958 yuan/ton (+ 4), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 83 yuan/ton (+ 27) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 600 yuan/ton (+ 10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1000 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 858 yuan/ton (+ 31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 97.3 yuan/ton (+ 31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 525.71 yuan/ton (+ 10.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 44.29 tons (- 2.85), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.78 tons (+ 0.02), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.60% (- 0.20%) [2] - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (- 0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 0.00% (- 27.91%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.28% (- 0.15%) [2] Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, the downstream of liquid chlorine has reduced its load, the price of liquid chlorine has further decreased, the cost support of chlor - alkali has strengthened, and enterprises are more willing to support the price of caustic soda. Some spot prices of caustic soda have increased slightly. Although the current operation rate of caustic soda enterprises is high, the decrease in comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has increased the market's expectation of caustic soda maintenance, and short - sellers have reduced their positions, leading to a rebound in the disk. The low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased. However, the current demand side of caustic soda has a general receiving sentiment, the alumina plant has partially overhauled, the operation rate has decreased slightly, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The non - aluminum operation rate has decreased before the Spring Festival, and there has been some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices, but the subsequent purchasing behavior has weakened. The export orders have improved slightly. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the disk [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the expectation of mercury - free transformation in the future raises the long - term cost expectation. The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the near term, and the market sentiment is expected to warm up after the Spring Festival [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4971 yuan/ton (-21), the East China basis is -231 yuan/ton (-19), and the South China basis is -141 yuan/ton (-39) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4740 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (-60) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -659 yuan/ton (+86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82), and the PVC export profit is 11.1 US dollars/ton (+2.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 28.8 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 80.37% (+0.39%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 73.25% (+2.64%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1] Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush to export" led to strong export orders, which have recently declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, and the downstream operation rate is expected to further decline. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level year - on - year. The cost of upstream chlor - alkali production has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures market still exists. However, the "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the mercury - free transformation expectation raises the long - term cost expectation [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1963 yuan/ton (+26), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -126 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 588 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1000 yuan/ton (-10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 821 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 139.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -562.21 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05), and the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 84.06% (-0.71%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Before the festival, the downstream of liquid chlorine reduced production, the price of liquid chlorine further decreased, the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali became stronger, and enterprises were more willing to support the price of caustic soda, resulting in a slight increase in some spot prices of caustic soda. Although the current operation rate of caustic soda enterprises is high, the decrease in comprehensive chlor - alkali profit increases the expectation of caustic soda maintenance. Short - sellers reduced their positions, and the futures market rebounded. The low - price spot drove some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased. However, the current demand side of caustic soda has a general receiving sentiment, the alumina plant has partial maintenance, the operation rate has slightly decreased, the unloading efficiency is average, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market has insufficient motivation to purchase caustic soda. The pre - festival operation rate of non - alumina industries has decreased, and there has been some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices, but subsequent purchasing behavior has weakened. Export orders have slightly improved. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the futures market [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC market's overall supply - demand pattern remains weak, but recent "rush - to - export" sentiment supports the spot, and the long - term cost expectation is raised due to the mercury - free transformation. The PVC outlook is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the market acceptance of spot prices, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. The export orders improve slightly. After the Spring Festival, the spot purchase may improve, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the downstream purchase rhythm [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,992 yuan/ton (+11), the East China basis is - 212 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 102 yuan/ton (+29) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 659 yuan/ton (+86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82), and the PVC export profit is 8.9 dollars/ton (+9.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 28.8 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.37% (+0.39%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 73.25% (+2.64%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1] Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush - to - export" led to strong export orders, which have recently declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant, with a slight decline due to some maintenance. The downstream operation rate is decreasing, and there is a further decline expectation. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit is slightly repaired, but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price is rising, the semi - coke price is stable, the calcium carbide profit is improving, and the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1,937 yuan/ton (+75), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton (-78) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 588 yuan/ton (-1), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 821 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 139.8 yuan/ton (-203.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 542.21 yuan/ton (-3.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05), and the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (-0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu is decreasing. The overall supply operation is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The demand side has a general receiving sentiment. Some alumina plants are under maintenance, the operation rate is slightly decreasing, the unloading efficiency is average, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda is decreasing. The non - aluminum industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season. The export orders are slightly improving. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream operation rate of liquid chlorine is decreasing, the liquid chlorine price is falling, and the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali is strengthening. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the futures market [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot market. The market has an expected increase in long - term costs due to the mercury - free transformation, but the process is long. The outlook for PVC is relatively positive. - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking. The long - term demand for caustic soda is expected to decline, and the export orders remain sluggish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5052 yuan/ton (-103); the East China basis is -202 yuan/ton (+83); the South China basis is -182 yuan/ton (+33) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (-20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4870 yuan/ton (-70) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -659 yuan/ton (+86); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82); the PVC export profit is -3.6 dollars/ton (-11.9) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 28.8 tons (-0.2); the social PVC inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.37% (+0.39%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 73.25% (+2.64%); the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. The "rush to export" led to a high level of export orders, but this week's signing volume decreased compared to the previous week while remaining relatively resilient. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant, and there are no new maintenance enterprises this week. The downstream operation rates of pipes, profiles, and films have decreased, with a further decline expected. Downstream buyers purchase on dips. The social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level compared to the same period. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has slightly recovered with the increase in PVC price but is still at a low level compared to the same period. The calcium carbide price has increased, the semi - coke price is stable, the calcium carbide profit has improved, but the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1917 yuan/ton (-61); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -76 yuan/ton (+58) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 589 yuan/ton (-1); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 824 yuan/ton (-3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 342.9 yuan/ton (+76.9); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -479.08 yuan/ton (-23.13); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+40.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05); the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.77% (-0.41%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis - The current spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking. The overall supply - side operation rate is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The downstream receiving sentiment is average. The operation of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina plants in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton; the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by alumina plants in Henan in February decreased by 50 to 2450 yuan/ton (converted to 100%); the purchase price of 50% caustic soda by alumina plants in Shanxi in February decreased by 50 to 2290 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The alumina industry's call for anti - involution has led to a decline in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The commissioning progress of alumina plants in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market is pessimistic, resulting in insufficient purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and some enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival at low prices. Export orders continue to be sluggish. After the price of liquid chlorine decreased, downstream purchases improved, and the price increased again, weakening the cost support for chlor - alkali. The caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression effect on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the downstream purchasing rhythm [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]