氯碱日报 | 2026-03-04 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存50.4万吨（-0.1）；PVC社会库存61.6万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率81.77%（+0.59%）； PVC乙烯法开工率80.40%（+1.53%）；PVC开工率81.35%（+0.87%）。 两会召开宏观预期转强 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 上游生产利润：兰炭价格685元/吨（+0）；电石价格2755元/吨（-25）；电石利润-83元/吨（-25）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-439元/吨（+157）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利11元/吨（-102）；PVC出口利润23.3美元/吨（-3.9）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量78.0万吨（-2.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2149元/吨（+67）；山东32%液碱基差-168元/吨（-73）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价634元/吨（-2）；山东50%液碱报价1020元/吨（+0）。 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4939元/吨（+71）；华东基差-259元/吨（-31）;华南基差-129元/吨（-41）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4680元/吨（+40）；华南电石 ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-03-03 液氯价格上行，氧化铝液碱采购价格稳定 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4868元/吨（+76）；华东基差-228元/吨（-46）;华南基差-88元/吨（+4）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4640元/吨（+30）；华南电石法报价4780元/吨（+40）。 PVC4月1日起取消出口退税，上游出口订单节前签至3月，本周出口签单环比节前小幅增加，印度发布反补贴税调 查，远期出口预期下降。当前基本面供需格局仍延续弱势；供应端国内供应充裕，暂无新增检修企业，4月春检预 期增加。需求端下游开工暂未恢复至节前水平，社会库存节后累库且同比处于高位；PVC仓单处于同期高位，3月 仓单注销现货压力增加。尽管供需偏弱，但周末国际地缘冲突带动整体大宗商品情绪走强，抢出口对现货形成一 定支撑，叠加无汞化转型推升市场对 PVC 远期成本的预期，当前PVC市场中长期预期偏强；节后春节期间累积的 库存与下游开工未完全恢复使得短期供需维持偏弱，后续随着下游开工恢复，春检预期升温及两会带来的宏观预 期转强，市场情绪有望改善，但后期随着抢出口时间窗口逐渐关闭，出口带来的支撑逐步弱化， ...

报告导读： 国家"双碳"相关政策引导，同时 生态环境部加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转 型，我们认为 PVC 长期格局向好。 法律声明 投资建议： 2025 年， PVC 市场基本延续下行走势，氯碱行业以碱补氯，优势企业具备低成本竞争优势。电石法无汞化转型有望加快，聚焦无汞催化剂研发 攻关等关键环节。 PVC 行业集中度持续提升。 根据卓创资讯， 2021 年至 2025 年中国 PVC 年度产能集中度（ CR10 ）分别为 35.59% 、 35.99% 、 37.8% 、 37.71% 、 40.17% 。根据君正集团 2024 年报，氯碱行业产能增速持续放缓，行业布局更趋清晰，单个企业平均规模继续提升。根据新疆天业 2024 年报，自 2022 年下半年开始，国内 PVC 市场长期低迷不振， 2023 年生产企业陆续出现亏损， 2024 年亏损企业增多。根据不完全统计， PVC 在计产能中有超过 130 万吨装置持续停车超过一年。 国家"双碳"相关政策引导。 2026 年 1 月 20 日，国家发展改革委资源节约和环境保护司司长王善成表示，"十五五"是实现碳达峰目标的决胜期， 2026 年 作为开局之年，统 ...

PVC 长期格局向好，优势企业有望充分受益 [Table_Industry] 基础化工 ——PVC 行业点评 |  ——PVC | 行业点评 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | | | 沈唯(分析师) | 0755-23976795 | shenwei2@gtht.com | S0880523080006 | | | | | | | | Table_subIndustry] [细分行业评级 | | 基础化工《"房地产高质量发展"，地产链化工品 有望受益》2026.01.22 基础化工《宏川智慧下修转股价》2025.12.30 基础化工《凯盛转债、利民转债赎回》2025.12.25 基础化工《存储芯片 DRAM 价格持续上涨，利好 上游半导体材料放量》2025.11.17 基础化工《新洋丰三季 ...

期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4963元/吨（+15）；华东基差-233元/吨（-15）;华南基差-103元/吨（+15）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4730元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4860元/吨（+30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格685元/吨（-50）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润-58元/吨（+40）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-596元/吨（+102）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利113元/吨（-16）；PVC出口利润16.3美元/吨（+0.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存50.5万吨（+19.3）；PVC社会库存61.5万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率81.18% （+0.40%）；PVC乙烯法开工率78.87%（+5.18%）；PVC开工率80.48%（+1.86%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量80.3万吨（-21.0）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-02-26 烧碱节后累库，现货价格小幅上涨 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2167元/吨（+197）；山东32%液碱基差-201元/吨（-163）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价629元/吨（+ ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-25 PVC节后累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4948元/吨（+43）；华东基差-218元/吨（-43）;华南基差-118元/吨（-53）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4730元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4830元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（-165）；电石利润-98元/吨（-165）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-596元/吨（+102）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利113元/吨（-16）；PVC出口利润16.3美元/吨（-0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存50.5万吨（+19.3）；PVC社会库存61.5万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率81.18% （+0.40%）；PVC乙烯法开工率78.87%（+5.18%）；PVC开工率80.48%（+1.86%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量80.3万吨（-21.0）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1970元/吨（-45）；山东32%液碱基差-39元/吨（+95）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价618元/吨（+13）；山东50% ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-13 下游开工节前走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4938元/吨（-52）；华东基差-208元/吨（+42）;华南基差-98元/吨（+32）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4730元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2945元/吨（+15）；电石利润67元/吨（+15）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-698元/吨（-39）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利129元/吨（+26）；PVC出口利润15.4美元/吨（+0.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.2万吨（+2.4）；PVC社会库存61.4万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.78%（+0.41%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.69%（+0.44%）；PVC开工率78.62%（+0.41%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量101.3万吨（-5.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1958元/吨（+4）；山东32%液碱基差-83元/吨（+27）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价600元/吨（+10）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-11 液氯价格进一步下降，烧碱现货小幅调涨 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存47.14万吨（-4.89）；片碱工厂库存2.76万吨（+0.05）；烧碱开工率87.80%（+0.10%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率84.06%（-0.71%）；印染华东开工率27.91%（-22.74%）；粘胶短纤开工率88.43% （+0.00%）。 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4971元/吨（-21）；华东基差-231元/吨（-19）;华南基差-141元/吨（-39）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4740元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4830元/吨（-60）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-659元/吨（+86）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利103元/吨（+82）；PVC出口利润11.1美元/吨（+2.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存28.8万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存59.3万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率80.37%（+0.39%）； PVC乙烯法开工率7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC market's overall supply - demand pattern remains weak, but recent "rush - to - export" sentiment supports the spot, and the long - term cost expectation is raised due to the mercury - free transformation. The PVC outlook is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the market acceptance of spot prices, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [3] - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. The export orders improve slightly. After the Spring Festival, the spot purchase may improve, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the downstream purchase rhythm [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,992 yuan/ton (+11), the East China basis is - 212 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 102 yuan/ton (+29) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 659 yuan/ton (+86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82), and the PVC export profit is 8.9 dollars/ton (+9.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 28.8 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.37% (+0.39%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 73.25% (+2.64%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1] Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush - to - export" led to strong export orders, which have recently declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant, with a slight decline due to some maintenance. The downstream operation rate is decreasing, and there is a further decline expectation. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level compared to the same period last year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit is slightly repaired, but still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price is rising, the semi - coke price is stable, the calcium carbide profit is improving, and the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 1,937 yuan/ton (+75), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton (-78) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 588 yuan/ton (-1), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 821 yuan/ton (-3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 139.8 yuan/ton (-203.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 542.21 yuan/ton (-3.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05), and the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.06% (-0.71%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda shows mixed trends. The low - price spot stimulates some pre - Spring Festival stocking purchases, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu is decreasing. The overall supply operation is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The demand side has a general receiving sentiment. Some alumina plants are under maintenance, the operation rate is slightly decreasing, the unloading efficiency is average, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda is decreasing. The non - aluminum industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season. The export orders are slightly improving. Before the Spring Festival, the downstream operation rate of liquid chlorine is decreasing, the liquid chlorine price is falling, and the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali is strengthening. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the futures market [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-06 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存28.8万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存59.3万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率80.37%（+0.39%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.25%（+2.64%）；PVC开工率78.21%（+1.08%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量107.1万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： PVC社会库存延续累库，下游开工下降 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5052元/吨（-103）；华东基差-202元/吨（+83）;华南基差-182元/吨（+33）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（-70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-659元/吨（+86）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利103元/吨（+82）；PVC出口利润-3.6美元/吨（-11.9）。 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1917元/吨（-61）；山东32%液碱基差-76元/吨（+58）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价589元/吨（-1 ...