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小商品城(600415):“全球数贸中心”开业在即市场化定价有望大幅增厚公司业绩
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-12 08:26
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The "Global Trade Center" is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance in the next 2-3 years, with a trial operation scheduled for October 2025. The project includes five functional areas: market, office buildings, digital brain, commercial street, and apartments [4][12] - The market segment is projected to generate substantial revenue from "site selection fees" and "merchant usage fees," with over 5,200 merchant spaces available [13][19] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 24.53%, 30.26%, and 17.92% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 40.73 billion, 64.41 billion, and 74.80 billion yuan [14][38] Summary by Sections Global Trade Center Overview - The Global Trade Center encompasses five main functional areas with a total construction area of 1.25 million square meters and an estimated total investment of 8.3 billion yuan [18] - The project layout features a central digital brain and includes a market area of approximately 410,000 square meters [12][18] Market Segment Revenue - The market segment's revenue sources include site selection fees and merchant usage fees, with bidding prices for various industries ranging from 82,000 to 138,000 yuan per square meter [13][22] - The expected revenue from site selection fees alone is estimated to be between 11.7 billion and 20 billion yuan [35] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 19.6 billion yuan in 2025, 25.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 30.1 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 24.53%, 30.26%, and 17.92% [15][40] - The projected net profit for the same years is 40.73 billion yuan, 64.41 billion yuan, and 74.80 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.50%, 58.15%, and 16.12% [14][38] Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expected performance of the market segment and the potential for profit release from the foreign trade ecosystem [14][41]