以下文章来源于昕锐消费笔谈 ，作者孟昕赵梦菲金桐羽 昕锐消费笔谈 . 以新锐视角分享和传递家电、轻工及智能制造等新消费的研究心得 文章转自2025年07月31日太平洋家电轻工团队报告，分析师： 孟昕 、赵梦菲、 金桐羽 投资要点 行业分析：内销政策利好叠加外销复苏，两轮车行业发展前景广阔。 1）内销： 新强标政策出台加速低质低价产品出清，叠加2025年以旧换新政策延续促进更新 需求，两轮车行业规模和集中度均有望进一步提升，2025年中国两轮电动车销量有望达5200万台。 2）外销： 东南亚多国推出"油改电"补贴，越南河内"禁摩"有 望进一步助推电动两轮车东南亚市场的增长，或将为两轮车出口带来新增量。 公司分析：产品端深耕两轮并拓展三轮业务，渠道生产端不断突破 。 1）产品端： 公司两轮车业务已实现电动自行车、电动摩托车品类全价格段覆盖，智能化方 面局车产品实现规模高速扩张，同时规模效应也或将帮助盈利能力提升。 女积性极客完群善，多共端同协助同推生收态入体规系模，和高产端品化结方构面的旗不舰断新提品升Q7；和公A7plus 司电动助三力轮公车司业两务轮在车行业业务竞价争格格天局花较板为上分探散至的5000背景元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of rye pollen as a new food ingredient by the National Health Commission in May 2023 marks a significant milestone for its legal status in China, opening up opportunities for its application in various sectors such as food supplements and skincare products, leading to a growing market demand and expansion [1][4][15]. Industry Overview - Rye pollen is derived from the pollen of the rye plant, processed through harvesting, drying, crushing, and sieving. It is rich in carbohydrates, primarily dietary fiber, and contains various vitamins and amino acids. The recommended daily intake is ≤1.5 grams [2][4]. - The market for rye pollen in China is projected to reach 229 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.65% [1][15]. Industry Chain - The rye pollen industry chain consists of upstream activities such as rye cultivation, pollen collection, and processing, while downstream applications include health foods, functional foods, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics [6][9]. - The primary consumer market for rye pollen is health foods, accounting for over 60% of consumption, with applications in products aimed at enhancing immunity and supporting prostate health [11][13]. Current Development - The global market for rye pollen is expected to reach 450 million USD by 2024, with continued growth anticipated due to increasing health awareness among consumers [13][15]. - The approval of rye pollen as a new food ingredient aligns with the rising demand for health-oriented products, particularly in the context of male prostate health and the growing female health market driven by the "she economy" [4][15]. Competitive Landscape - The rye pollen industry in China is still in its early stages, with limited participants and relatively low competition. Key players include both foreign companies like Graminex and domestic firms such as Fufeng Snott Biotechnology and Shaanxi Bohong Health Industry [17][19]. - Graminex is a leading global producer of natural rye pollen, controlling the supply chain from cultivation to production, ensuring product quality and traceability [17]. Future Trends - The demand for rye pollen is expected to grow in niche markets focusing on women's health and men's prostate health, with companies likely to develop personalized formulations targeting specific consumer needs [21]. - Stricter food safety regulations will drive the rye pollen industry towards standardization and normalization, enhancing overall product quality and promoting healthy industry development [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The "Global Trade Center" is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance in the next 2-3 years, with a trial operation scheduled for October 2025. The project includes five functional areas: market, office buildings, digital brain, commercial street, and apartments [4][12] - The market segment is projected to generate substantial revenue from "site selection fees" and "merchant usage fees," with over 5,200 merchant spaces available [13][19] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 24.53%, 30.26%, and 17.92% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 40.73 billion, 64.41 billion, and 74.80 billion yuan [14][38] Summary by Sections Global Trade Center Overview - The Global Trade Center encompasses five main functional areas with a total construction area of 1.25 million square meters and an estimated total investment of 8.3 billion yuan [18] - The project layout features a central digital brain and includes a market area of approximately 410,000 square meters [12][18] Market Segment Revenue - The market segment's revenue sources include site selection fees and merchant usage fees, with bidding prices for various industries ranging from 82,000 to 138,000 yuan per square meter [13][22] - The expected revenue from site selection fees alone is estimated to be between 11.7 billion and 20 billion yuan [35] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 19.6 billion yuan in 2025, 25.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 30.1 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 24.53%, 30.26%, and 17.92% [15][40] - The projected net profit for the same years is 40.73 billion yuan, 64.41 billion yuan, and 74.80 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.50%, 58.15%, and 16.12% [14][38] Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expected performance of the market segment and the potential for profit release from the foreign trade ecosystem [14][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the strategic focus of Aima Technology on the "her economy," targeting female consumers in the two-wheeler market, while the three-wheeler business is expected to contribute additional growth [27][28]. Group 2 - The article outlines a series of upcoming online meetings covering various topics, including the progress of the AI industry in the US, analysis of the current housing sales system, and insights into the global interconnect chip leader, Lanqi Technology [27][28].

Group 1: Event Highlights - The 35th Qingdao International Beer Festival has set multiple records, featuring over 2,300 beer varieties from more than 400 brands across 40 countries and regions, with the event duration extended to one month [2] - The festival attracted an average of nearly 340,000 participants daily at the old city venue, with over 300 cultural and sports activities held in the first ten days [2] - New events such as the HOCH Hamburger Festival and various coffee festivals have been organized, contributing to the city's cultural tourism and enhancing consumer engagement [3] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Recent consumer trends indicate a shift towards deeper experiences, with a focus on emotional satisfaction and quality enjoyment, leading to the rise of integrated experiences like "food + culture + entertainment" [5] - The demand for personalized and diverse consumption is increasing, with consumers prioritizing quality over mere availability [6] Group 3: Company Innovations - Qingdao Beer (600600) has expanded its business model by introducing new formats like craft beer gardens and bars, with over 200 stores nationwide [4] - The company utilizes consumer big data to identify demand changes, allowing for rapid product development and a focus on experiential consumption [4] Group 4: Policy Support - The Qingdao government has implemented various policies to stimulate consumption, including the "Qingdao City Consumption Promotion Implementation Plan," which aims to enhance consumer confidence and engagement [6][7] - Policies promoting night economy development and the integration of various business sectors are being encouraged to create vibrant consumer environments [6][7]

机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/曾珺 圣贝拉是亚洲和中国最大的产后护理与修复品牌集团（24 年月子中心收入口径，沙利文），已在全球 30 个城市布局月子中心门店96 家（截至2025.6）。 市场担忧国内出生率下降会制约行业及公司主业的规模增长，对此我们认为当前女性悦己需求的崛起与 家庭结构的变化，与韩国/中国台湾产后护理行业早期背景具有相似性，有望通过渗透率提升对冲出生 人口下滑的影响。据沙利文，24 年我国境内月子中心渗透率仅6%，较中国台湾/韩国（均超60%）仍有 较大提升空间。此外，不同于传统的重资产投入模式，公司独创的轻资产标准化运营方式抗风险能力更 强，有望在行业周期波动中实现攻守兼备。 我们看好公司本土高端服务品牌的稀缺性、标准化运营复制能力以及年轻创始团队的锐气与专业沉淀。 立足当下，公司正处于同店稳定增长、门店快速扩张的势能成长期，规模效应有望撬动利润弹性，我们 预计25-27 年公司收入/经调整净利润CAGR 28%/94%。展望未来，公司主业全球范围内横向积极整合扩 张，纵向以"她经济"切入家庭护理和女性健康食品业态，拓展全周期家庭护理版图，有望释放多品牌与 平台能力的协同价值。 目标价 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Saint Bella with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 9.76, corresponding to a 27X PE for 2026E [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Saint Bella is the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with 96 centers in 30 cities globally as of June 2025. The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [1][19]. - The company is positioned in a growth phase characterized by stable same-store growth and rapid expansion, leveraging its unique high-end service brand and standardized operational capabilities [1][19]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of horizontal global expansion and vertical integration into family care and women's health food sectors, aiming to enhance its full-cycle family care platform [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Bella recorded a revenue of RMB 798.67 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 42.64%. The adjusted net profit for the same year is projected at RMB 120.69 million, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [11][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a "brand-scale" positive cycle through a unique high-end service model, innovative supply chain management, and effective customer retention strategies. It holds a 1.2% market share, leading the industry [2][3]. - The operational model includes a light-asset approach with flexible leasing and a proprietary nursing team, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [2][21]. Growth Strategy - Short to medium-term focus on domestic and international expansion, with a target of 267-316 centers in China. The company plans to utilize its established brand and operational model to penetrate international markets [3][19]. - Long-term vision includes transforming into a comprehensive family health management platform, with new business segments expected to grow at over 30% annually [3][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of RMB 0.19, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.49 [5][11].

Core Conclusions - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector has shown impressive performance in the first half of the year, but has entered a phase of digestion and volatility since mid-June [1][8] - The macro logic supporting the new consumption trend is based on the historical shift in consumer behavior observed in Japan, where consumption has transitioned from mass-market to personalized and rational consumption [1][20] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong exhibits higher growth potential compared to the A-share market, driven by evolving consumer concepts and demographic changes [1][30] Current Phase of New Consumption - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is currently experiencing a phase of heat digestion, following a significant rise in the first half of the year, with notable stocks like Pop Mart, Old Puhuang, and Mixue Group seeing an average price increase of 247% [8][9] - The shift in consumer focus towards experience and participation, characterized by "self-consumption" and "social consumption," has led to a surge in popularity for categories such as trendy toys, tea drinks, and luxury jewelry [8][9] - Since mid-June, the new consumption stocks have faced a correction, with the average decline of the "three golden flowers" reaching 25% [9][17] Mid-term Support for New Consumption - Despite the recent volatility, the report suggests that the macroeconomic logic supporting the new consumption trend remains intact, with historical parallels drawn from Japan's consumption evolution [20][22] - The report references Maslow's hierarchy of needs, indicating that as income rises, consumer demand is shifting from material to spiritual needs, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized and rational consumption [20][30] - The ongoing demographic changes and the evolution of consumer concepts in China are expected to sustain the growth of the new consumption sector in the long term [30][31] Advantages of Hong Kong's New Consumption Assets - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is characterized by a higher proportion of innovative consumption compared to the A-share market, which is dominated by traditional sectors like liquor and home appliances [33][35] - The financial performance of Hong Kong's new consumption stocks is robust, with projected revenue growth of 54% for key players in 2024, significantly outpacing the A-share market [35][39] - The report anticipates continued inflows into Hong Kong's new consumption sector from public funds, with an estimated total inflow of 300 to 450 billion yuan expected in 2025 [35][41] Future Trends and Opportunities - The report identifies several emerging trends in consumer behavior, including the rise of the Z generation, single households, and the aging population, which are driving demand for personalized and emotional consumption experiences [31][47] - The pet economy is highlighted as a rapidly growing sector, with a projected market size of 811.4 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing emotional needs among consumers [47][54] - The report emphasizes that policy support for consumption is likely to enhance consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the areas of self-consumption and value-for-money products [47][48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Aima Technology (603529.SH) is rated as a buy due to favorable industry conditions and company performance [2] Group 2 - Industry analysis indicates that domestic sales policies and the recovery of exports create a promising outlook for the two-wheeler industry [2] - Company analysis highlights Aima's focus on deepening its two-wheeler product line while expanding into three-wheeler business, along with continuous breakthroughs in production and distribution channels [2]

7月27日，一汽奔腾在长春捌壹岛举办"一汽奔腾粉丝纳凉节暨2026款奔腾小马焕彩上市"活动。会上，2026款奔腾小马正式上市，新车共5款车型，起售价下 降2000元，售价3.49万—4.59万元。 因独特的定位和不俗的性价比，奔腾小马自2024年5月上市以来，累计交付超过 11.9 万辆，进入细分市场销量榜前三。值得注意的是，相比长安Lumin、奇 瑞QQ冰淇淋等同级车型，奔腾小马尤其受到女性用户青睐。 奔腾悦意 rest # # a All B ti 8× . 9 .. a 8 � 1 7 4 . 84 - 1 o y 3 199 1976 19 a 8 g , 199 B2 40 of e 10 P e 178 100 据一汽奔腾官方介绍，奔腾小马的用户年龄主要集中在20—35岁的年轻群体，其中女性用户占比高达43%。超过一半的男性车主更将奔腾作为"赠予伴侣"的 礼物；在职场白领、全职妈妈等群体中，这款车的渗透率超出行业平均水平3倍。 为进一步巩固了在女性经济市场的地位，2026款奔腾小马再次进行了升级。外观方面，新增雪樱粉车色，其灵感源自樱花气泡饮的绵密质感，通过6层珠光 粒子喷涂工艺，在阳光下呈现渐变 ...