实体经营预期

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6月PMI点评:经济短期动能增强,但实体经营预期下行
Orient Securities· 2025-07-02 08:29
Economic Indicators - June PMI data shows a continued upward trend, but the rate of increase has slowed down, indicating potential economic uncertainty[6] - Manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7%, slightly up from 49.5% in May, while non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%[6] - Production and new orders PMI for June are at 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating stable demand but a slowdown in growth[6] Inventory and Orders - Raw material inventory PMI is at 48%, and finished goods inventory PMI is at 48.1%, both showing an increase[2] - New export orders PMI is at 47.7%, reflecting a slowdown in growth and indicating that indirect trade impacts from U.S. tariff exemptions are nearing their end[6] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains strong at 50.9%, while basic raw materials PMI is at 47.8%, indicating a significant increase[6] - Construction activity index for June is at 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting robust infrastructure project progress[6] Risks and Outlook - Global supply chain competition is intensifying, and external demand may change faster than expected, posing risks to economic stability[3] - The report suggests that while current macroeconomic data appears stable, ongoing policy support is necessary to sustain demand amid uncertainties[6]