Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari emphasizes the need for more time to assess the impact of the trade war, suggesting that its effects may be delayed or less severe than anticipated [1] Group 1 - Focus should be on actual inflation and economic data rather than commitments to a loose policy path [1] - The potential delay in the effects of tariffs is a critical consideration for economic policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut decisions will depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations and actual economic data, particularly employment data [1] Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Recent soft data in the U.S. has shown overall weakness, while hard data remains robust [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see approach, not rushing to cut rates, and plans to act once the situation becomes clearer [1] - Future interest rate cut decisions will primarily depend on the trends in hard data, especially employment figures [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - If employment data weakens significantly before the June meeting, and inflation pressure remains manageable in April and May, there is a probability of a rate cut in June [1] - Conversely, if conditions do not align, the decision for a rate cut may be postponed until July or later [1] Group 3: Focus Areas - Continued attention will be on changes in U.S. tariff policies and hard data, including employment figures, to assess the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [1]