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申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260316
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market will shift from "universal rise" to the "alpha selection" stage. Stocks without performance support, such as pure concept stocks and small and medium - cap stocks, may continue to be weak, while sectors benefiting from policies and with improved performance may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals and policies, and it is expected to return to an oscillating upward trend after the geopolitical risks ease [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods decreased, with the largest decline in the IF next - season contract of 10.20 points, and the trading volume and changes in positions varied. For example, the trading volume of the IF current - month contract was 58,457.00, and the position decreased by 3,459.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods also decreased, with the largest decline in the IH next - season contract of 12.80 points. The trading volume and position changes were different. For instance, the trading volume of the IH current - month contract was 22,688.00, and the position decreased by 3,065.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods dropped significantly, with the largest decline in the IC next - season contract of 108.20 points. The trading volume and position changes were diverse. The trading volume of the IC current - month contract was 73,173.00, and the position decreased by 5,597.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods decreased, with the largest decline in the IM current - month contract of 92.00 points. The trading volume and position changes were as follows: the trading volume of the IM current - month contract was 112,502.00, and the position decreased by 5,107.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed. For example, the current value of the IF next - month minus IF current - month spread was - 14.80, compared with the previous value of - 16.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 0.39%, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.50%, the CSI 500 Index decreased by 1.43%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.46%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy and raw materials industries decreased by 1.58% and 1.57% respectively, while the main consumption industry increased by 0.90% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract relative to the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index was - 11.14, compared with the previous value of - 29.16 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.65%, the Small and Medium - cap Board Index decreased by 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.22% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.98%, the Nikkei 225 Index decreased by 1.16%, the S&P Index decreased by 0.61%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.60% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - **Global Events**: This week, there are many major events in the global market, including Sino - US economic and trade consultations in France, the release of China's January - February industrial production, investment, and consumption data, and the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve, European, British, and Japanese central banks. There are also important meetings and corporate earnings announcements [2] - **Iran Situation**: There are military actions between Iran and the US, and the war situation is complex. Iran has put forward conditions for ending the war, and the US is considering forming a "convoy alliance" in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Oil Price Response**: In response to the soaring oil price, the US, the UK, Germany, Austria, and Japan have taken measures to release strategic oil reserves [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Financial Regulation**: The Financial Regulatory Administration and the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Regulations on Explicitly Stating the Comprehensive Financing Cost of Personal Loan Business", which will be officially implemented on August 1, 2026 [2] - **Real Estate Market**: In the first quarter of 2026, the real estate markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have emerged from the trough, with the second - hand housing market leading the recovery. The new housing market shows a structural trend [2] - **Home Appliance Industry**: At the 2026 China Household Appliances and Consumer Electronics Expo in Shanghai, future - related exhibits such as AI large models and smart home operating systems are in the core position. In 2025, the penetration rate of AI home appliances exceeded 50% [2] - **Automobile Industry**: The average retail price of passenger cars has changed. In 2026, the average price in February was 180,000 yuan, an increase of 15,000 yuan compared with the same period [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - The US three major indexes rose and then fell. The previous trading day's stock index declined, with the food and beverage sector leading the rise and the comprehensive sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.42 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 18.278 billion yuan to 2.645946 trillion yuan on March 12. As the annual and first - quarter reports of listed companies are gradually disclosed, industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract funds, and the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven" [2]