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家电行业2025年中期策略:配置黑白电龙头,拥抱新消费与新制造
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-23 14:26
Investment Themes - The report identifies three main investment themes: new consumption in home appliances, new manufacturing in home appliances, and leading companies in the black and white appliance sectors [3][61][72]. New Consumption in Home Appliances - The report highlights two investment opportunities: new product forms, particularly in handheld smart imaging, and new industry phases, focusing on the rapidly expanding market for robotic vacuum cleaners [5][33]. - The market for panoramic cameras is expected to grow significantly, driven by their functional and emotional value, with a projected market size reaching 250 billion yuan by 2024 [34][36]. New Manufacturing in Home Appliances - Companies with solid fundamentals and a focus on robotics are viewed positively, indicating a shift towards automation and advanced manufacturing processes [61]. - The report emphasizes the potential for companies like Yili to benefit from the aging population through the development of care robots, with expected revenue growth of over 30% in the coming years [66]. Performance of Leading Companies - The report notes that leading companies in the black and white appliance sectors are expected to maintain stable growth, with high dividend yields and strong performance metrics [72][79]. - The performance of major brands such as Midea, Gree, and Haier is highlighted, with their price-to-earnings ratios (PE) currently at 13.2x, 7.5x, and 12.1x respectively, indicating relatively low valuations [79][106]. Market Trends and Dynamics - The home appliance sector has faced challenges in 2025, with the industry index showing a decline of 2.7% year-to-date as of June 18, 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and high base expectations for the second half of the year [12][13]. - The report indicates a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with home appliance components showing a positive growth of 11.7%, while other categories like white goods and kitchen appliances experienced declines [12]. Export Performance - Despite tariff impacts, the home appliance export market remains resilient, with a cumulative export growth of 6.1% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [24][29]. - The report notes that exports to North America have been significantly affected by tariffs, while markets in Europe and emerging economies continue to show strong growth [29][31]. Pricing and Competition - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that leading brands are adjusting their pricing strategies to maintain market share amidst a backdrop of fluctuating demand and competitive pressures [99][101]. - The pricing dynamics in the air conditioning market are highlighted, with a noted decrease in average prices by 15% year-on-year, impacting brand performance differently [88][91].