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权益ETF系列:不惧调整,宽幅震荡
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-02 14:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the financial products sector [1]. Core Views - The report expresses a viewpoint of "not fearing adjustments, expecting wide fluctuations" in the market [1][17]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (July 28 - August 1, 2025) - The top three broad indices were: - Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (1.09%) - Sci-Tech Innovation Index (0.65%) - Sci-Tech 100 (0.52%) - The bottom three broad indices were: - North Certificate 50 (-2.70%) - Dividend Index (-2.67%) - China Securities Dividend (-2.65%) [10][11]. A-share Market Outlook (August 4 - August 8, 2025) - The monthly macro model score for August is 0, with a historical probability of 75% for an increase, indicating a high likelihood of continued upward movement in the A-share market [24]. - The technical timing model shows that the Wind All A Index has a risk level of 103.88, indicating an overheated market, which may lead to increased volatility [17][21]. - The report suggests that the market may experience wide fluctuations, but structural opportunities will continue to emerge [20]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, considering the current market conditions and potential for future recovery [5][20]. Risk Trend Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three broad indices in the risk trend model were: - Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (26.99) - China Securities Dividend (26.91) - North Certificate 50 (26.68) - The bottom three were: - ChiNext Index (14.51) - CSI 300 (15.78) - Shenzhen Component Index (16.69) [32][36]. Style Index Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three style indices were: - Large Cap Value (24.87) - Mid Cap Growth (23.18) - Mid Cap Value (21.32) - The bottom three were: - Financial (7.69) - Stability (13.16) - Cycle (15.14) [42][46]. Industry Index Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three industry indices were: - Food and Beverage (58.54) - Banking (40.70) - Beauty and Personal Care (39.96) - The bottom three were: - Non-ferrous Metals (13.27) - Composite (13.71) - Electric Power Equipment (15.80) [53][57].