Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing flat at 3965.12 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3242.90 points [1][10] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,423 billion, an increase of 30 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included Oil & Petrochemicals (up 2.63%), Automotive (up 1.35%), Non-ferrous Metals (up 1.31%), Machinery Equipment (up 1.29%), and Comprehensive (up 1.01%) [1][10] - The sectors that experienced declines included Retail Trade (down 1.56%), Real Estate (down 1.22%), Public Utilities (down 1.14%), Social Services (down 1.13%), and Construction Decoration (down 1.11%) [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors with notable gains included Yushu Robotics, Reducers, Humanoid Robots, Ice and Snow Tourism, Embodied Intelligence, Selected Automotive Parts, New Industrialization, Industrial Mother Machines, Selected Industrial Metals, Robotics, Industry 4.0, Smart Speakers, Xiaomi Automotive, Stablecoins, and Consumer Electronics OEM [2][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and trends in the credit bond market, focusing on both primary and secondary markets, as well as financial analysis by industry [4][5][6]. Group 2 - In the primary market, as of December 26, 2025, there have been 15,700 credit bonds issued since the beginning of 2025, totaling 13.91 trillion yuan, with 7,440 industrial bonds amounting to 8.60 trillion yuan [4]. - The public utility sector leads in issuance with 1.95 trillion yuan from 1,060 bonds, followed by non-bank financials at 1.38 trillion yuan from 1,407 bonds, and transportation at 1.00 trillion yuan from 805 bonds [4]. - The secondary market has seen credit bond yields experience an M-shaped trend, with four distinct phases: rapid increase in yields until mid-March, a decline until early July, another increase until late September, and a fluctuating decline from October onwards [4]. Group 3 - In terms of financial performance, total revenue for industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 3.50% year-on-year, while net profit totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, also down 3.32% [5]. - The non-bank financial sector boasts a net profit margin exceeding 30%, significantly higher than other sectors, with environmental protection and public utilities also showing margins above 10% [5]. - By the end of Q3 2025, industries such as construction and real estate faced high debt pressure, with asset-liability ratios above 70%, while media and defense sectors maintained lower ratios below 50% [6]. Group 4 - The total interest-bearing debt across industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.58% year-on-year, with non-bank financials, public utilities, and social services having over 70% of their total liabilities as interest-bearing debt [6]. - Industries with strong short-term debt repayment capabilities include textiles, defense, media, and light manufacturing, with cash covering over 100% of short-term debts, while non-bank financials and steel sectors showed weaker capabilities with coverage below 50% [6]. - Operating cash flow for industrial bond issuers saw a net inflow increase of 18.40% year-on-year, with 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, reporting positive growth in net inflows [6].

"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，在基本实现社会主义现 代化进程中具有承前启后的重要地位，对谱写好"强富美高"新南京现代化建设新篇章具有重大意义。中 国共产党南京市第十五届委员会第十二次全体会议，深入学习贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会以及习 近平总书记对江苏工作重要讲话精神，认真落实省委十四届十次全会部署，就制定我市国民经济和社会 发展"十五五"规划提出以下建议。 一、准确把握"十五五"时期在推进中国式现代化南京新实践中的重要地位和经济社会发展总体要 求、主要目标 1."十四五"时期南京经济社会发展取得新的成就。"十四五"时期，面对错综复杂的外部形势和艰巨 繁重的改革发展稳定任务，全市上下坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党中 央决策部署和习近平总书记对江苏工作重要讲话精神，认真落实省委省政府部署安排，团结奋进、砥砺 前行，经受住世纪疫情严重冲击，坚决扛好经济大省挑大梁的省会担当，总量保持全国内地城市十 强，"强富美高"新南京现代化建设迈上新台阶。经济实力稳步提升，全市地区生产总值超过1.9万亿 元，人均GDP居全国城市前列，软件和信息服务产业产值预计突破 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate reached 4.3% in Q3 2025, marking the fastest growth in two years, but this growth is characterized by structural imbalances and is not a broad-based recovery [1][3] - The primary driver of this GDP growth is consumer spending, which increased by 3.5%, with significant contributions from entertainment, electronics, automotive, international travel, healthcare, and daily necessities [3][4] - The economic landscape is described as a "K-shaped economy," where high-income individuals and large corporations benefit from stock market gains and asset appreciation, while middle and low-income households face rising costs and economic pressures [4][6] Group 2 - The current consumer spending boom is primarily supported by the wealthy, indicating a superficial prosperity rather than healthy, endogenous growth [7][8] - Trump's tariff policies have contributed positively to GDP in the short term but have increased living costs, leading to a decline in his approval ratings despite favorable macroeconomic indicators [8][10] - Large corporations are thriving under current economic conditions, while small businesses struggle with rising costs and declining profits, reflecting a similar K-shaped divergence in the corporate sector [9][10] Group 3 - Inflation has begun to accelerate again, complicating the Federal Reserve's potential for interest rate cuts, with expectations shifting towards a more cautious monetary policy outlook [11][12] - The economic impact of a recent government shutdown is projected to lower Q4 GDP by 1-2 percentage points, with significant irreversible economic losses anticipated [13] - The widening consumption gap between the wealthy and the poor, along with the survival disparity between large and small enterprises, highlights the conflict between short-term policy stimuli and long-term structural issues [14]

按最新收盘价计算，A股均价为13.62元，不足2元的个股共有36只，股价最低的是退市苏吴，最新收盘 价为0.35元。 | 代码 | 简称 | 最新收盘价（元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | 日换手率（%） | 市净率（倍） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600200 | 退市苏吴 | 0.35 | 2.94 | 2.41 | 0.14 | 医药生物 | | 300344 | *ST立方 | 1.19 | -7.03 | 11.79 | 3.38 | 计算机 | | 601005 | 重庆钢铁 | 1.45 | -0.68 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 钢铁 | | 000656 | *ST金科 | 1.47 | -0.68 | 1.32 | | 房地产 | | 600022 | 山东钢铁 | 1.48 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.84 | 钢铁 | | 002146 | 荣盛发展 | 1.51 | -0.66 | 1.95 | 0.55 | 房地产 | | 300391 | *ST长药 | 1.51 | -6.21 | 8.14 ...

流动性方面，截止12月15日，港股央企红利50ETF（520990）近20个交易日累计成交金额33.68亿元， 日均成交金额1.68亿元；今年以来，231个交易日，累计成交金额310.98亿元，日均成交金额1.35亿元。 港股央企红利50ETF（520990）现任基金经理为龚丽丽、汪洋。龚丽丽自2024年7月25日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益20.71%；汪洋自2025年7月15日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益 6.80%。 最新定期报告显示，港股央企红利50ETF（520990）重仓股包括中国石油股份、中国移动、中国神华、 中国海洋石油、中远海控、中国石油化工股份、中国电信、中国联通、中煤能源、华润置地，持仓占比 如下。 港股央企红利50ETF（520990）成立于2024年6月26日，基金全称为景顺长城中证国新港股通央企红利 交易型开放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为景顺长城中证国新港股通央企红利ETF。该基金管理费率 每年0.50%，托管费率每年0.10%。港股央企红利50ETF（520990）业绩比较基准为中证国新港股通央企 红利指数收益率(使用估值汇率折算)。 风险提示：市场有风险，投 ...

2012 31 2025-12-15 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内商品继续回落，多数品种走弱，其中，工业品、农产品指数均下跌，品种间走势分化。一是，美联储12月如期降息，黄金、有色板块表现亮眼；二是， | | | 国内经济疲软，供强需求，黑色系继续调整，表现较弱；三是，多空因素交织，能化板块震荡运行。 | | 海外 | 1）美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点至3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上重申了双重使命，并强调由于缺乏增量数据， | | | 就业和通胀预期变化不大。但对于劳动力市场，鲍威尔提到就业增长可能被高估了约6万人，暗示自4月以来月均就业人数实际可能减少了2万人。因此在当前就业 | | | 下滑和通胀上行的矛盾走势中，美联储选择在当前更加重视就业的问题，所以选择降息。12月美联储降息如期落地，而且与市场预期不同的是，鲍威尔的发言更 | | | 偏鸽派，目前市场预期2026年仍有两次各25bp降息可能，后续就业和通胀的走势仍是关键。2）日本 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3889.35 | 0.41% | 16.03 | | | 深证成指 | 13258.33 | 0.84% | 110.94 | | | 沪深 300 | 4580.95 | 0.63% | 28.77 | | | 创业板 | 3194.36 | 0.97% | 30.68 | | | 科创 50 | 1348.88 | 1.74% | 23.05 | | | 北证 50 | 1447.69 | 0.31% | 4.52 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.50% | 商贸零售 | -1.28% | 可控核聚 ...

《中国发展报告2025》记录了2024年推进中国式现代化进程中所形成的思想成果、制度成果、实践成果，并收录了4项国务院发展研究中心的重要研究成 果。《全球发展报告2025》以"携手为全球发展注入稳定性和确定性"为主题，分析当前世界面临的主要不稳定、不确定因素及其对全球发展的深刻影响， 重点分析全球贸易、气候变化、卫生健康、粮食安全和减贫、发展中国家工业化、数智技术、全球南方发展合作以及共同维护以联合国为核心的国际体系 等议题。 《问道"十五五"》《"十五五"名家谈：于变局中开新局》《聚焦"十五五"：经济大省挑大梁》带你在未来五年的不确定性中寻找确定性。 一是坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。2026年，八项重点任务怎么干？现 整理如下书单，供您参考。 明年要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 《首发经济：理论、实践与政策》从首发经济的核心内涵与特征、面临的问题与挑战、推进思路及政策体系等方面进行理论阐述，同时结合优秀地方实践 ...

"自2023年启动新一轮国企改革深化提升行动以来，我们以'一年谋划、两年攻坚、三年收官'的战 略定力，推动139项改革任务靶向突破。"泰州市国资委相关负责人表示，从司库体系"数智赋能"到招商 机制"精准破局"，从产业布局"优化升级"到民生服务"提质增效"，国有资本正为城市高质量发展注入强 劲动力。 "以前企业资金分散在8500多个银行账户，监管难、调度慢，现在通过司库系统，资金归集效率提 升80%，内部调剂更精准高效。"泰州市交通产业集团财务负责人介绍，借助这套系统，集团已归集资 金251亿元，办理内部贷款150笔，累计节约融资成本超2亿元。目前，司库系统创新"国资侧+企业侧"双 系统模式，实现银行账户实时监管，银企直连覆盖率超95%。通过系统贷款预警功能，某国企提前调度 资金规避了亿元逾期风险。这一改革亮点不仅斩获2025中国司库建设司南奖"地方机构司库建设标杆"， 更成为泰州优化国资配置的生动注脚。 除司库系统外，市国资委以"数智赋能"优化国企融资环境，上线了泰州市国有企业融资交易服务平 台。该平台与司库系统实现功能贯通，优化了融资计划管理、融资交易管理、债务监测预警和资金动态 管理等功能，构建资金来源可 ...