1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, precious metal prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main contract of Shanghai Gold fell 0.8% to 773.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver fell 1.26% to 9169 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.51% to $3338.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.26% to $38.33 per ounce. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.40%, and the U.S. dollar index fell 0.80% to 97.67 [11]. - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve building seriously interfered with the independence of the Fed's monetary policy. The trading driver of the precious metal market has shifted from economic data to the interference with the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [11]. - Next week, the Fed will hold its July interest rate meeting, and its monetary policy stance is expected to turn dovish. The Fed's interest rate cut this year will exceed market expectations. Even if Powell completes his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually turn loose, and there is a possibility that the subsequent interest rate cut will exceed market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in precious metal strategies, and focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9075 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, precious metal prices fluctuated. Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver futures, as well as COMEX gold and silver, all declined to varying degrees. The U.S. dollar index also fell, while the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.40% [11]. - **Policy Interference**: Trump's visit to the Fed and his public call for interest rate cuts challenged the independence of the Fed's monetary policy. The Fed's response was not strong. The market's trading driver has shifted to the interference with the Fed's policy independence [11]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in this meeting with a probability of 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is only 4.1%. However, it is believed that the Fed will make a dovish statement in this meeting, and there is a possibility of an unexpected interest rate cut [11]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in precious metal strategies, focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [11]. 3.2. Market Review - **Price Movement**: Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices declined, while Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver also showed a downward trend to a certain extent [29]. - **Position Change**: The positions of both domestic and foreign gold increased. The total position of Shanghai Gold increased by 0.49% to 422,700 lots, and the total position of COMEX gold increased by 9.12% to 489,400 lots. The position of COMEX silver increased by 1.29% to 173,700 lots, while the total position of Shanghai Silver decreased by 4.45% to 952,000 lots [31][34]. - **ETF Position**: As of July 25, the total position of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope was 2170 tons, and the total position of foreign silver ETFs was 27,534 tons [39]. 3.3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Yield Curve**: The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, as well as the yields of short - term U.S. Treasury bonds, are presented in the report [51]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The Federal Funds Rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations are analyzed [54]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: This week, the balance of the U.S. Treasury General Account on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet replenished $21.5 billion in funds, and the scale of deposit reserves decreased slightly to $3.36 trillion [60]. 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In June, the U.S. CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value; the core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [65]. - **Employment Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value [68]. - **PMI and PPI**: In June, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, higher than expected but still below the boom - bust line; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8, rising above the boom - bust line and higher than expected [71]. - **New Housing Data**: In June, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the U.S. was 1.321 million, higher than expected and the previous value; the annualized total number of building permits was 1.397 million, higher than expected and the previous value [74]. 3.5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The gold basis is presented through the chart of Gold TD - SHFE [77]. - **Silver Basis**: The silver basis is presented through the chart of Silver TD - SHFE [79]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: The internal and external spreads of gold and silver are also analyzed [82]. 3.6. Precious Metal Inventory - **Silver Inventory**: The inventory data of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented through relevant charts [90]. - **Gold Inventory**: The inventory data of gold in COMEX and LBMA are presented through relevant charts [95].