A股市场方面，今天三大指数早盘高开高走，随后全天单边上行，沪指盘中重回3900关口，全市场超 4600股飘红。不过，近期两市成交量较此前有所回落，重新回到2万亿关口下方。这一现象释放了怎样 的信号？后市能否站稳3900点甚至再创新高？节目邀请东北证券首席投资顾问郭峰共同解读。全球市场 方面，今天下午，日本自民党总裁高市早苗在临时国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举中胜出，当选日本 第104任首相，她也由此成为日本宪政史上首位女首相。日股今天开盘续创新高，午后涨幅有所回落， 而在债券市场方面，"寡妇交易"正在受到关注。《财经夜行线》邀请国泰君安国际首席经济学家周浩一 同探讨"寡妇交易"获利的趋势会持续吗？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The "widow trade," previously a losing strategy in Japan's bond market, has transformed into one of the most profitable bets in 2023 as Japanese government bonds face significant sell-offs, leading to a total return loss exceeding 4% this year, making it the worst-performing government bond globally [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Japan's bond market is experiencing its most severe sell-off in decades, driven by repeated interest rate hike expectations and concerns over potential large-scale fiscal stimulus from the new Prime Minister [1][5]. - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a historical high this month, with Goldman Sachs labeling Japan as a "net exporter of bearish shocks" in the global bond market [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly adopting short positions on Japanese government bonds, with strategies focusing on shorting five-year bonds as a primary execution method [4][5]. - Western Asset Management has maintained a short duration strategy in the Japanese bond market, while RBC BlueBay Asset Management has recently established positions betting on the decline of 10-year Japanese government bond prices [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's core inflation rate has consistently exceeded the central bank's 2% target over the past three years, despite a series of interest rate hikes, indicating that Japanese rates remain low by global standards [5][6]. - Japan holds the highest government debt-to-GDP ratio among developed countries, raising concerns about fiscal policy and its implications for bond yields [5][6]. Group 4: Political Landscape - The new Prime Minister, who has promised cash subsidies and tax cuts, has raised concerns about fiscal expansion pushing long-term yields higher, amidst a backdrop of political instability [1][7]. - The recent dissolution of the ruling coalition has plunged Japan into a significant political crisis, further complicating the bond market outlook [1][7].