小盘等)
Search documents
A股流动性与风格跟踪月报:短期震荡不改成长风格主线,大盘股更优-20250903
CMS· 2025-09-03 13:03
Market Style Outlook - The current liquidity-driven environment remains the main characteristic of the short-term stock market, with changes in market risk appetite dominating market rhythm. As September approaches, the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to influence market expectations. The current heat of financing funds has reached a relatively high level, and future inflows may slow down slightly. However, with the potential for the Fed to restart rate cuts, the appreciation of the RMB, and the stabilization of domestic PPI, foreign capital may gradually shift towards inflow. Historically, during the pullback phase of a bull market, previously strong styles may experience larger corrections, but the market quickly returns to the previous strong main style after a brief pullback. Therefore, the market style in September is likely to favor large-cap stocks, with growth styles expected to continue to dominate [1][4][12]. Liquidity and Fund Supply-Demand - In September, incremental funds are expected to continue net inflow, with positive feedback from incremental funds likely to persist. The central bank continues to use various liquidity management tools to meet liquidity needs, maintaining a strong willingness to protect liquidity. The overall funding rates are expected to remain low. External liquidity conditions are also favorable, with market expectations for a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which may lead to a weaker dollar index. In August, the net inflow of funds in the stock market expanded significantly, with financing funds becoming the main source of incremental capital. The supply side shows a rebound in the scale of newly issued equity funds, and the market's risk appetite continues to improve [2][3][20]. Market Sentiment and Fund Preference - In August, market risk appetite further rebounded, with the overall A-share risk premium falling below the historical average. Major indices broke through previous resistance levels, showing an accelerated upward trend. The technology style performed well, with the ChiNext 50 and the Growth Enterprise Market leading the gains. The performance of sectors related to communication electronics and AI computing was particularly strong, with notable performances in computer, power equipment, and machinery sectors [3][31][41]. Major Asset Performance Review - The A-share market led global markets in August, with major indices breaking previous loss resistance levels and showing an accelerated upward trend. The market's upward slope has slowed down towards the end of August, with a shift in style from small-cap to large-cap stocks. The ChiNext 50 and small-cap growth indices led the gains, while the value and dividend styles performed relatively weakly [31][36][37].