海外再传鸽派信号，美联储官员近期称鉴于劳动力市场走弱，短期内仍有进一步降息的空间，降息预期 的提升显著提振市场信心，近期持续调整的港股市场迎来反弹行情。 据美国劳工部数据，美国9月失业率回升至4.4%，升至2021年10月以来最高。从芝商所美联储观察工具 的数据来看，美联储于12月降息25bp的概率当前接近70%，而该数据在一周前一度低至30%。 港股创新药产业：恒生医药ETF（159892） 港股市场AI主线：恒生科技指数ETF（513180） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 展望后市，美联储降息节奏虽在短期内有所扰动，但在美联储降息背景下，外资回流或超预期，叠加南 向资金持续增持，港股市场有望迎来流动性的进一步宽松，对于流动性更敏感的科技、医药板块或持续 受益。 【相关ETF】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a strong recovery since 2025, with fundraising exceeding HKD 200 billion, regaining its position as the global leader in IPOs [2][3]. Market Performance - The performance of the Hong Kong IPO market this year has exceeded expectations, with significant contributions from high-quality companies and a continuous influx of foreign capital [3][5]. - Notable projects such as the IPO of Mixue Ice City and the placement of BYD have demonstrated the market's robust recovery, with the former achieving record frozen capital and attracting substantial foreign investment [5][6]. Impact of HKEX Reforms - Recent reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have positively influenced the market, particularly in optimizing IPO pricing and public market regulations, making it more attractive for large A-share companies to list [8][10]. - The new regulations have stabilized the allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors, enhancing the pricing power of institutions and improving post-IPO performance [10]. Foreign Capital Inflow - There is a clear trend of foreign capital returning to the Hong Kong IPO market, especially from European and Middle Eastern investors, driven by the need for diversified asset allocation [11][12]. - The shift in foreign investment strategies reflects a rebalancing of portfolios, with increased interest in Chinese assets [12]. Future Trends - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, characterized by a virtuous cycle of good supply creating good demand, with many high-growth companies planning to list [13][14]. - Key trends for the future include diversification in company size and industry, a strong linkage between supply and demand, and the globalization of Chinese enterprises, with Hong Kong serving as a vital capital platform [14].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a strong recovery since 2025, with fundraising exceeding HKD 200 billion, regaining its position as the global leader in IPOs [1] - UBS has played a pivotal role in this resurgence, leading significant projects such as the listings of Mixue Ice City and CATL, and participating in BYD's placement [1][2] - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, driven by the influx of quality companies and the return of foreign capital [1][6] Market Performance - The fundraising in the Hong Kong IPO market has surpassed expectations, with the market returning to the top globally in the first three quarters of the year [2] - The "924 policy" introduced last year signaled a positive shift, with high-quality foreign investors showing strong interest in projects like China Resources Beverage [2] - UBS's role in BYD's placement, raising approximately HKD 435 billion (around USD 56 billion), has significantly boosted market confidence [2] Representative Projects - Mixue Ice City is highlighted as a landmark project that opened the IPO market in Q1, setting a record for frozen capital and demonstrating strong institutional demand [3] - CATL's successful listing, with a "0 discount" pricing strategy, reflects the positive trend of domestic and foreign capital participation [3] Impact of HKEX Reforms - Recent reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have positively influenced the market, allowing larger companies to issue shares at more reasonable scales [4] - The new regulations have stabilized the allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors, enhancing pricing mechanisms and improving post-listing performance [4] Foreign Capital Trends - There is a clear trend of foreign capital returning to the Hong Kong IPO market, particularly from Europe and the Middle East [5] - The shift in foreign investment is driven by the need for diversified asset allocation, with China becoming a key focus for global investors [5] Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market in the next 1-2 years remains optimistic, supported by a positive cycle of supply and demand [6] - Key trends include diversification in company size and industry, a strong linkage between supply and demand, and the globalization of Chinese enterprises [7]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a strong recovery since 2025, with fundraising exceeding HKD 200 billion, regaining its position as the global leader in IPOs [1][2] - UBS has played a significant role in this resurgence, leading several high-profile projects such as the listings of Mixue Ice City and CATL, and the placement for BYD [1][2] - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, driven by the influx of quality companies and the continued return of foreign capital [1][2] Market Performance - The fundraising amount in the Hong Kong IPO market has surpassed HKD 200 billion this year, with the first three quarters marking a return to the top position globally, exceeding initial expectations [2] - The "924 policy" introduced last year signaled a positive shift, as evidenced by the successful fundraising for projects like China Resources Beverage, which attracted significant foreign investment [2] - UBS's role in the placement of BYD, raising approximately HKD 435 billion (around USD 56 billion), has significantly boosted market confidence [2] Representative Projects - The listing of Mixue Ice City is highlighted as a key milestone for the IPO market, setting a record for frozen capital and demonstrating strong institutional demand [3] - CATL's successful listing, with a "0 discount" pricing strategy, reflects the positive sentiment among both domestic and foreign investors [3] Impact of HKEX Reforms - Recent reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have positively influenced the market, particularly in terms of IPO pricing and issuance requirements [4] - The new regulations allow larger companies to issue shares at a more reasonable scale, encouraging high-quality issuers to consider the Hong Kong market [4] Retail Investor Distribution - The new IPO pricing mechanism has established a more predictable allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors, stabilizing retail distribution at around 10% [5] - This change aligns with international market practices and enhances the pricing power of institutions, ultimately benefiting all parties involved [5] Foreign Capital Trends - There is a clear trend of foreign capital returning to the Hong Kong IPO market, particularly from European and Middle Eastern investors [6] - The shift in foreign investment is driven by a need for diversified asset allocation, with China becoming a key focus for global investors [8] Future Trends - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market in the next 1-2 years is optimistic, characterized by a positive cycle of supply and demand [9] - Key trends include diversification in company size and industry, a strong linkage between quality offerings and capital attraction, and the globalization of Chinese enterprises [10]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has experienced a strong recovery since 2025, with fundraising exceeding HKD 200 billion, regaining the top position globally [1] - UBS has played a significant role in this resurgence, leading notable projects such as the listings of Mixue Ice Cream and CATL, and participating in BYD's placement [1] Market Performance - The performance of the Hong Kong IPO market this year has exceeded initial expectations, with a notable increase in high-quality foreign investments following the "924 policy" last year [2] - UBS coordinated a significant placement for BYD, raising approximately HKD 435 billion (around USD 56 billion), primarily from foreign investors, which boosted market confidence [2] Representative Projects - Key projects like Mixue Ice Cream have marked the opening of the IPO market this year, achieving record frozen capital and demonstrating strong demand from institutional investors [3] - CATL's successful listing with a "0 discount" pricing strategy further illustrates the positive trend of domestic and foreign capital participation in the market [3] Impact of HKEX Reforms - Recent reforms by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) have positively influenced the market, allowing larger companies to issue shares at more reasonable proportions, encouraging high-quality issuers to list [4] - The new regulations have stabilized the retail investor allocation at around 10%, aligning with international practices and enhancing institutional pricing power [5] Foreign Capital Trends - There is a clear trend of foreign capital returning to the Hong Kong IPO market, particularly from Europe and the Middle East, with increased participation from long-term foreign cornerstone investors [6] - The shift in foreign investment is driven by a need for diversified asset allocation, with China becoming a key focus for global investors [7] Future Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market remains positive, supported by a cycle where good supply creates good demand, with many high-growth companies planning to list [8] - Three key trends defining the future of the Hong Kong IPO market are "diversification," "supply-demand linkage," and "globalization," indicating a multi-faceted growth trajectory [9]

机构：开源证券 研究员：高超/卢崑 （2）港股一级市场高景气，看好港股资产端扩容。2025Q1-3 港股新股上市数量为69 家，同比+53%， 新股募资额1883 亿港元，是2024 年首三季的三倍多，Q3 末正在处理中的新股上市申请数量达297 宗， 是2024 年末的84 宗三倍以上。伴随中概股优质资产回流以及A 股赴港二次上市浪潮，香港市场优质资 产有望扩容，带动交易量持续扩张。2025Q1-3 上市费收入12.7 亿港元，同比+17%。（3）此外，交易 量高增间接带动存管、托管及代理人服务费以及市场数据费同比+25%/+8%。 投资收益率下降，2025E 股息率3.0%，看好估值提升（1）2025Q1-3 投资收益净额38.9 亿港元同比 +4%，公司项目投资/保证金投资投资收益率分别为4.7%/2.0%（2025H1 为5.7%/2.2%），收益率下降主 因公司外部投资组合收益有所下降，保证金投资收益率下降。（2）2025 年预期股息率（假设分红率 90%不变）3.0%（当前美债收益率4.10%），往后看美联储降息有望驱动外资回流港股市场，港交所受 益。当前公司PE-TTM31.2 倍，位于十年分位 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by a recovery in IPO activities and sustained inflows of southbound capital, with a forecasted increase in ADT for 2025-2027 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The company has revised its ADT assumptions for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3% [5][6] Market Outlook - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is experiencing high demand, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [7] - The report notes that the trading volume is expected to remain active due to the influx of quality assets from Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong and the wave of A-share listings in Hong Kong [7] Valuation and Dividend - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, indicating room for valuation improvement [8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance on November 6, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 2% in the afternoon, driven by gains in tech stocks, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductor sectors [1] - Southbound capital continued to actively invest in the Hong Kong market, with a net purchase amount of 10.373 billion HKD on November 5, bringing the total for the month to 25.677 billion HKD, and a cumulative net purchase of 1,285.694 billion HKD for the year [1] - According to Guotai Junan's recent report, under a neutral assumption, active public funds are expected to see an inflow of 200 billion HKD next year, with passive public funds also expected to bring in 200 billion HKD, and insurance and private equity funds projected to contribute 400 billion HKD and 300 billion HKD respectively [1] Group 2 - China Merchants Securities forecasts that by the end of 2026, there will be an additional 1.54 trillion HKD of long-term southbound capital, potentially bringing a total of approximately 11 trillion HKD in the next five years [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is currently valued at a P/E ratio of 22.52, which is in the historical low valuation range, being below 73% of its historical valuation periods [2] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to benefit from current trends in AI, with potential foreign capital inflows exceeding expectations due to the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and continued accumulation of southbound funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of prices is crucial for economic growth and the capital market, supported by favorable conditions in consumption demand, monetary liquidity, and exchange rates [1] Group 1: Consumption Demand - Long-term demographic, industrial, and fiscal transformations are expected to enhance residents' income [1] - The simultaneous movement of the population peak and consumption peak over the next decade suggests a more optimistic total consumption outlook [1] Group 2: Monetary Liquidity - The central bank's initiation of government bond trading and the fiscal policy of "debt conversion" are facilitating the transfer of fiscal deposits to residents and enterprises [1] - The significant rebound in M1 growth over the past year is anticipated to drive a rebound in PPI [1] Group 3: Exchange Rates - The RMB is likely to enter a new appreciation cycle, benefiting from a solid export base, the return of foreign capital to RMB financial assets, and early signs of a long-term weakening of the US dollar [1]

全球资本的流向，素来被视为经济信心的"晴雨表"与资产配置的"风向标"。 近期，一系列数据显示，国际资本对中国市场的信心明显增强。而在A股上市公司发布的三季报中，记 者也发现，外资股东出现了特劳特咨询有限公司（以下简称"特劳特"）、文莱投资局等新面孔，韩国银 行等在时隔一段时间后再次出现在上市公司前十大股东名单中。 业内人士指出，外资回流是估值修复、产业升级与全球资产再平衡的必然逻辑，随着中国经济向价值创 造跃迁，外资对中国资产的信心增强，A股与港股市场中长期增长潜力较大。 "新面孔"现身 近日，A股化肥板块龙头亚钾国际发布的三季报显示，全球顶级战略咨询机构特劳特以852.85万股持股 量新晋公司第十大流通股东，占流通股比例1.05%。 记者梳理发现，此次是特劳特首次出现在A股上市公司前十大流通股东名单中。公开资料显示，特劳特 是一家全球领先的战略定位咨询公司，由"定位之父"杰克·特劳特创建。公司总部设在美国，在全球27 个国家和地区设有分部，由熟谙当地的合伙人及专家为企业提供战略定位咨询。客户包括IBM、惠普、 宝洁、西南航空、雀巢、苹果、通用电气、微软、沃尔玛和其他世界500强企业。 无独有偶，中金公司三季 ...