外资大举回流，中国资产迎来"黄金时刻"？ 当华尔街的基金经理们开始重新审视中国市场的投资价值时，这个信号远比任何政策宣言都更具说服 力。 彭博社最新报道犹如一记惊雷，在全球资本市场掀起波澜——国际资本正在以前所未有的速度重 返中国。 资金面的变化更值得玩味。央行数据显示，今年前六个月的外资净流入量已超过去年全年的60%。国家 外汇管理局副局长李斌的发言更添了一把火：8月份境外投资者"总体上净买入"中国股票和债券。这种 官方确认的积极信号，往往预示着更持久的趋势。 但投资者最关心的莫过于：这轮行情能走多远？ 光大证券的观点颇具代表性：国庆后市场有望延续升 势。历史数据显示，节后资金回流是大概率事件，更何况当前A股估值仍处于合理区间。中国银河则把 目光投向了即将召开的二十届四中全会，认为"十五五"规划的酝酿可能成为新的催化剂。 华泰证券的提醒则更为理性：节前市场可能维持震荡，但节后随着政策窗口打开，交投热情有望重燃。 这种审慎乐观的态度，恰恰反映了专业机构对市场节奏的精准把握。兴业证券张启尧的论断则直指本 质：当前行情已从估值修复转向盈利驱动，后续走势将取决于经济复苏的成色。 站在全球视角观察， 中国资产的这轮重 ...

从基本面来看，恒生科技指数盈利增速领先。据兴业证券统计，2025Q2，港股主要指数中，恒生科技 收入、净利润同比增速领先。恒指、恒生综指、恒生综指-非金融、恒生科技收入同比增速分别为 2.45%、2.29%、1.33%和14.43%，净利润同比增速分别为-1.12%、3.63%、2.21%和16.18%。 流动性方面，国投证券复盘指出，历史上美联储一旦开启降息，恒生科技往往兼具绝对收益和超额收 益。9月美联储降息以及后续"降息周期"概率提升将直接缓解港股自8月份以来面对的流动性困境。 近期，港股科技板块活跃不断，南向资金也延续加仓动作。据Wind数据显示，昨日（9月25日），南向 资金全天净买入约110.46亿港元，大幅净买入阿里巴巴-W46.32亿港元，买入腾讯控股11.11亿港元。截 至9月25日，今年以来，南向资金净买入超过11400亿港元，是去年同期2倍以上。 值得一提的是，又一布局恒生科技的ETF产品即将上市。 根据天弘基金此前公告，恒生科技ETF（520920）成立于9月22日，9月30日上市交易。截至2025年9月 23日，该基金场内份额持有人户数为6018户，平均每户持有的基金份额为202,7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of foreign capital inflow into A-shares has been a significant topic of discussion, indicating a growing interest from global investors in the Chinese stock market [2][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Inflow Data - From May to the end of July, long-term stable foreign institutional funds accumulated inflows of approximately 67.7 billion HKD, while short-term flexible foreign institutional funds saw inflows of about 16.2 billion HKD [2]. - During the week of August 14-20, the net inflow of foreign capital for allocation reached a new high since 2025, totaling 6.98 billion CNY, with active allocation foreign capital turning to net inflow for the first time since mid-October 2024, amounting to 140 million CNY [2]. - In the first week of September 2025, foreign capital net inflow into the Chinese mainland market was approximately 5.5 billion USD, with stock funds contributing 5.02 billion USD, primarily from passive funds [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Preferences - Foreign capital tends to favor industries with global competitive advantages and strong growth potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the Nvidia supply chain, and renewable energy [4]. - Since July, foreign capital has shown a significant preference for sectors like technology, healthcare, and materials, particularly focusing on companies within the AI industry due to their clear technological advancements and profit growth expectations [4]. - The preference for core assets with local market characteristics is evident, with foreign capital increasing allocations in sectors like automotive, banking, and electronics in A-shares, while favoring software and services in Hong Kong stocks [5]. Group 3: Structural Characteristics of Foreign Investment - The structural characteristics of foreign capital allocation in A-shares are focused on high-growth technology, high-dividend assets, and high-end manufacturing [4]. - Foreign investors have shown a preference for stocks with strong fundamentals, as indicated by the higher return on equity (ROE) of foreign-held stocks in A-shares (17.2%) compared to the overall market [5]. - The trend of foreign capital favoring stocks with lower AH premium suggests a strategic approach to maximize returns while minimizing risks associated with market fluctuations [5].

报告导读： 本期 A 股市场热度回升，私募积极加仓，散户资金活跃度提升，南下资金流 入放缓，外资继续回流中国市场。 市场定价状态： 本期市场热度回升，交投意愿持续活跃。 1 ）市场情绪（上升）： 本期市场交易热度小幅回升， 全 A 日均成交额提升至 2.5 万亿，上证指 数换手率分位数上升至 95% ，沪深 300 换手率分位数上升至 93% 。 日均涨停家数下降至 69.8 家 ，最大连板数为 8.3 个，封板率下降至 65.8% ，龙虎 榜上榜家数升至 56 家； 2 ）赚钱效应（下降）：本期个股上涨比例下降至 32.0% ，全 A 个股周度收益中位数下降至 -1.66% ； 3 ）交易集中度（上 升）：行业交易集中度持续提升，本期行业换手率历史分位数处于 90% 以上的行业有 19 个，其中汽车换手率进一步提升维持榜首，部分传统行业交易活跃 度抬升明显。 A 股资金流动：本期外资回流，融资资金仍大幅买入。 1 ）公募：本期偏股基金新发规模上升至 235.8 亿，基金股票较上期减仓； 2 ）私募： 9 月私募信 心指数小幅回升，仓位小幅抬升并突破 78% ，已接近今年 3 月最高点； 3 ）外资：流入 9 ...

行业层面，机械设备成为上周公募机构调研最集中的行业，共有20家上市公司获102次调研，不论在覆 盖个股数量还是调研频次上均居首位。基础化工、电力设备和汽车行业紧随其后，上周获公募机构调研 次数均不少于50次，覆盖上市公司均不少于10家。不过，以往备受关注的电子行业上周热度明显下降， 仅有12家上市公司累计获公募机构37次调研，调研个股数量和频次较以往明显减少。 在参与调研的公募机构方面，上周有54家机构展现出极高的调研热情，每个工作日都安排了调研活动。 其中，43家机构的调研次数在5次至9次之间，保持着稳定的调研节奏；11家机构调研次数均不少于10 次。富国基金凭借24次调研的"成绩"，位居公募机构调研次数榜首，成为上周调研最勤奋的机构。从调 研方向来看，钢铁行业是富国基金重点关注领域，被调研的上市公司数量多达5家。 富国基金9月21日发布的市场观点显示，中长期视角下，A股市场的盈利修复基础有望得到巩固；在"存 款搬家"、外资回流等多重因素共振下，A股市场不改震荡上行趋势。 华夏基金、招商基金和国泰基金调研次数分别为16次、14次和13次。其中，华夏基金调研主要集中在钢 铁和机械设备板块；招商基金和国泰基金均 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a contraction in trading volume, with the three major indices slightly declining and total trading volume decreasing by 811.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.30% to close at 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw minor declines of 0.04% and 0.16%, respectively [2] Policy Signals - The State Council Information Office is set to hold a press conference on September 22, 2025, to discuss the achievements of the financial industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is highly anticipated by investors for potential policy signals [1][2] Index Adjustments - The FTSE Russell index adjustments effective after the close on September 19 led to notable movements in several large-cap stocks, with stocks like BeiGene and NewEase rising, while others like China Nuclear Power and China Unicom fell [3] - The adjustments included the inclusion of stocks such as BeiGene and NewEase into the FTSE China A50 Index, reflecting international investors' structural optimism towards the Chinese market, particularly in the innovative drug and technology sectors [3] Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to shift the focus from inflation control to stabilizing growth and employment, which historically has led to improved returns in domestic equity markets [4] - Analysts predict that the resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle will enhance global risk appetite and improve liquidity expectations in emerging markets, benefiting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] Investment Outlook - Despite a strong performance of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks since late June, the market has entered a consolidation phase in September, with increased volatility [5] - Structural opportunities in technology growth, low-volatility dividends, and sectors experiencing recovery are highlighted as areas of interest, with expectations of a "policy-driven + profit improvement" support for a potential upward trend in the fourth quarter [5] - AI is anticipated to be a key market theme moving forward, with the overseas computing power industry expected to positively impact the A-share market [5]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to rise, while the AH premium has reached a phase low, leading to a divergence in opinions regarding the overvaluation of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Some industry insiders believe that the current AH premium is at a reasonable level based on the existing exchange rate and market environment, with potential for further narrowing of the AH premium amid a mid-term trend of RMB appreciation and USD weakening [1] - Hong Kong assets may benefit from abundant global liquidity and the return of foreign capital, especially if the US further cuts interest rates to improve global liquidity and AI companies continue to deliver strong performance [1]

Market Overview - On September 17, the A-share market opened lower but experienced a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3849 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to 13215.446 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 24,032 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included multi-financial, optical optoelectronics, photovoltaic equipment, and battery sectors, while precious metals, commercial retail, fertilizers, and tourism sectors lagged[3] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with multi-financial and wind power equipment leading the increases[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.73 times and 49.46 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][14] Policy and Economic Outlook - The State Council has emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery, with multiple favorable policies in place to support the market[3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on structural policies[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blind chasing of high prices, while looking for opportunities in sectors like multi-financial, optical optoelectronics, photovoltaic equipment, and batteries[3][14] - Continuous net inflows of global funds into the A-share market and a shift of household savings towards capital markets are creating a sustained source of incremental funds[3]

Market Overview - On September 16, the A-share market experienced a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3876 points before stabilizing in the afternoon[2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87 points, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.45% to 13063.97 points[8][9] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 23,673 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3][15] Sector Performance - The automotive, internet services, robotics, and computer equipment sectors performed well, while insurance, small metals, energy metals, and mining sectors lagged[3][8] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with notable increases in electric machinery, automotive parts, real estate services, logistics, and computer equipment[8][10] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.74 times and 48.91 times, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment[3][15] - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with investors advised to remain cautious and avoid blind chasing of high prices[3][15] Economic and Policy Context - The government is focused on consolidating economic recovery, with multiple favorable policies in place to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market[3][15] - Global liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, aided by signals of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may attract foreign capital back to A-shares[3][15] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact recovery[4][15]

Group 1 - The certainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is increasing, leading to an appreciation of the RMB and an accelerated inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets [1][2] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, particularly in the real estate sector, are expected to improve the external environment for equity assets, suggesting a bullish outlook [1][2] - Recommended sectors include media, computer technology, electrical equipment, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology [1][2] Group 2 - In the bond market, the recent marginal tightening of the funding environment has not significantly impacted the resilience of the equity market, with expectations of continued support from the central bank [2] - The basic economic indicators show a continuation of weak fundamentals, but the central bank's actions indicate a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the favorable external environment [2] Group 3 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to create a favorable financial condition for non-U.S. markets, including Hong Kong stocks [3] - Weak demand for crude oil is projected for 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices [4] - The anticipated easing of financial conditions before the Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to positively influence gold performance [5]