丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从增量资金看转债表现的可持续性 ——可转债周报 20250823 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 8 月 18 日-2025 年 8 月 23 日）转债市场延续强势，价格中枢上行，风险偏好 回升。估值分化下，高价券弹性走强，中低价品种修复，百元附近承压。资金面上，银行理财、 ETF 与保险等资金增配意愿增强，北向资金放量成交，或仍存在增量空间。权益市场成长风格 主导，通信、电子、计算机等科技板块领涨，周期与制造方向成交活跃，资金集中度提升。条 款与赎回事件频繁，市场博弈升温。整体来看，建议顺应科技与制造主线，关注正股支撑与弹 性兼备的个券，同时警惕高位拥挤板块波动，均衡把握结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从增量资金看转债表现 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 A股市场的上涨动能自6月下旬以来有所加速，上证综指站上3800点，并创下十年新高。在市场情绪回暖的背景下，外资投行机构对中国股票市场的关注 度也显著提升。近期的热点话题主要围绕市场上涨的持续性、"反内卷"政策解读、国际投资人对中国市场的配置态度等展开。 市场上涨的持续性 此轮行情的持续性是不少机构讨论的一个话题，海外机构认为本轮上涨主要由于以下几个因素： 1）宏观经济改善预期： "反内卷" 以及近期出台的促消费举措，反映政策层更精准应对经济结构性挑战。自6月以来，10年期和30年期国债收益率呈现上 升趋势，表明投资者对于宏观前景趋于更加乐观，也促进了资金从债市流向股市。对比2024年9月和2023年1月，债券市场的涨幅有限甚至没有上涨，显示 2）中报业绩： 基本面因素是支撑行情上涨的基石。对于市场整体盈利，部分机构认为当前更应该关注微观层面的产业结构性亮点，比如AI算力链、创新 药、机器人和智能驾驶等。而从不同资产类别来看，亚洲区域的投资经理当前最为关注的四类资产分别 ...

陈果投资策略 摘要 展望后市，游资及活跃、外资"FOMO"买入、居民加速流入，微观流动性边际仍充裕，同时内部重要事 件、外部"鲍威尔放鸽"，或推动牛市第二阶段加速演绎。另一方面，上证指数ERP可能即将突破近10年 均值（全A与沪深300尚有一定空间）这也标志着指数的估值修复完成相当部分，而市场进入牛市第三 阶段仍需基本面支撑，且美联储9月之后的降息路径仍有不确定性，需密切关注短期市场上涨斜率，如 果演绎过快，则后续震荡概率加剧。中期维度A股证券化率、市值存款比等指标与历次牛市顶部仍有明 显距离，信心重估牛中期趋势未完。短期成长风格依然主导，部分增量资金可能更关注其中的低位方 向。重点行业关注：港股、计算机、机器人、国产算力/半导体/海外算力、医药、非银、化工、有色、 军工等。 近期不同增量资金的行为特征 游资及私募（尤其是百亿私募）活跃、外资"FOMO"买入、居民加速流入，推动市场加速上涨，科技成 长占优。7月私募基金备案金额创2022年来新高，8月15日当周百亿私募仓位创年内单周最大加仓纪录， 近3周龙虎榜营业部净买入金额大增，显示游资+私募积极活跃；此外龙虎榜上沪深股通专用席位近期 大幅流入，外资或因"害 ...

中信证券：并不是散户市 从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户。事实上本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索 都是围绕产业趋势和业绩。既然都是聪明的钱入场占主导地位，就不能执迷于类比过往行情走势。目前全市场结算资金 占流通市值的比例尚在合理区间，赚钱效应仍在持续积累。随着2020年至2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市 场会有个新旧资金接力的过程。未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索，而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。 配置上，依然建议聚焦在有真实利润兑现或者强产业趋势的行业，如资源、创新药、游戏和军工；从短期的利润兑现度 的角度来看，开始关注化工，逐步增配一些"反内卷+出海"品种；9月消费电子板块也值得关注。 华泰证券：新高后市场如何演绎？ 上周市场创新高，充裕流动性仍是行情的主要基底。近期居民存款搬家的叙事构成了国内流动性改善的积极信号，后续 或仍有空间。短期来看，判断市场顶部的意义和胜率都不算高，配置上应保持仓位、顺势择线、适度内部高低切换。节 奏上后续即便出现调整，幅度也不会太深，市场进入上行趋势的共识在逐步增强。过往看国内基本面、国内流动性、海 外流动性三者改善是市场步入上行趋 ...

本周各家券商策略较为积极，后续行情的持续性与结构性机会是讨论的焦点。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | 华西策略 李立峰 | 沪指创近10年新高,增量资金来自 何方? | 本轮A股牛市行情从"924"演绎至今,增量 资金,在过去三年多来持续增持A股;二是融 迹象显现但仍处于早期阶段，资产荒下，居 | 聚焦新技术、新成长方向 (如国产算力 机器人、AI应用等）,辅之以部分大 全融、新消费(如IP经济、口含烟等) | | | | 资金来源广泛:一是险资、养老金等中长期 | | | | | 资资金和私募基金交易持续活跃,外资对A股 | | | | | 关注度也开始升温；三是居民"存款搬家" | | | | | 民资金有望通过ETF、直接持股、公募基金等 | 0 | | | | 渠道持续入市,成为"慢牛"得以延展的关 | | | | | 键动力。 | | | | | 从各类资金情况来看,此轮行情持续到现在 主要的发起者和推动者并非散户;事实上本 | | | | | 轮行情从起步到加速,核心线索都是围绕产 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the value gap in the market is rapidly being filled by a surge of incremental capital, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the stock market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - From early July to August 18, over 5,400 A-shares had a median increase of approximately 8.15%, while the CSI 300 ETF rose by 8.66%, ranking around 2,600 among A-shares. The ChiNext ETF saw a significant increase of 21.05%, ranking around 1,040, suggesting that holding the ChiNext ETF could outperform over 80% of A-shares [3]. - The current bull market is characterized by the substantial financial strength of investment institutions, which are actively establishing their presence in the A/H share market [4]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of tracking the movements of incremental capital, particularly from large institutional investors, as these trends can last for a year and a half, providing opportunities for retail investors to benefit [4]. - Understanding the investment preferences, styles, and specific targets of different institutional funds, such as public funds, private equity, and insurance capital, can help investors capitalize on the continuous influx of institutional capital [5].

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a significant shift in ETF fund preferences, with a notable net redemption of over 200 billion yuan in ETFs this year, excluding state-owned enterprises' increases [1] - Despite the overall market facing redemption pressures, the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has seen a remarkable net inflow of 1.154 billion yuan this year, with a share increase of over 5000%, making it the fastest-growing ETF in the market [1][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent market uptrend is primarily driven by three types of active funds: retail investors, leveraged funds, and private equity [2] - Retail investors have shown caution, with new A-share accounts in July remaining flat at 1.96 million, significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March [6] - Leveraged funds have seen a continuous net inflow since late June, with a cumulative scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, pushing the financing balance above 2 trillion yuan [5] Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors are exhibiting a "fear of heights" sentiment, leading to limited participation in the current market rally [6] - The net inflow of small retail funds has been marginal, with a recent weekly net inflow of 113.4 billion yuan, still below the average of 131.2 billion yuan seen in the first quarter [8] - There has been a significant redemption of ETFs, with a total net redemption exceeding 200 billion yuan this year, and a recent weekly outflow of 16.1 billion yuan, marking a new high for 2024 [8] Group 3: Enhanced ETF Performance - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has achieved a year-to-date growth in scale, with a share increase of over 50 times, driven by its outstanding performance [9] - As of August 11, the ETF has recorded a one-year return of 111.83%, outperforming the benchmark index by 34.43% [9][12] - The ETF's ability to provide excess returns makes it an attractive option for investors seeking certainty amid market volatility [12] Group 4: Future Capital Inflows - Despite low retail participation, there is a broader trend of asset allocation towards equity markets, driven by a low-interest-rate environment [13] - There are indications of a shift in resident deposits, with a decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan in July, suggesting funds are moving towards capital markets [13][14] - Institutional funds, including foreign and insurance capital, are expected to continue flowing into the market, providing solid support [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that while A-shares have seen significant index increases and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion, the influx of new retail investors remains moderate, with institutional investors, particularly private equity, being the primary drivers of market activity [2][6]. Group 1: Retail Investor Participation - Recent grassroots surveys show a mild increase in retail investor account openings, primarily among younger generations, but no significant surge in online account openings through platforms like Alipay [3][4]. - The current enthusiasm of retail investors is described as cautious, with a scoring system indicating a participation level of around 120 points, compared to much higher levels seen in previous market peaks [3][4]. - Data from East Wu Securities indicates that new retail investor accounts have not shown a concentrated influx, with July's new accounts at 1.96 million, similar to April's figures, suggesting a lack of aggressive market entry by retail investors [4][5]. Group 2: Institutional Investor Activity - Institutional investors have shown a marked increase in account openings, surpassing personal accounts, with private equity and high-net-worth individuals being particularly active [2][6]. - The number of new institutional accounts has reached historical highs, correlating positively with the issuance of equity funds, indicating a potential "institutional bull market" on the horizon [6][7]. - Recent data shows that leveraged funds have been actively entering the market, with an average daily inflow of 5.5 billion since July, and private equity positions have increased significantly [6][7]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in A-shares has been increasing, with global hedge funds buying Chinese stocks at a rapid pace, primarily driven by bullish sentiment [8][9]. - Korean investors have significantly increased their trading volume in Chinese stocks, with cumulative transactions reaching $5.514 billion by the end of July, surpassing the previous year's total [8][9]. - Despite the growing interest from foreign investors, there remains a divergence in investment strategies, with some institutions still cautious about diversifying into Chinese assets [8][9].

Group 1 - The A-share market sentiment has significantly improved, with various funds actively entering the market, indicating a shift of funds from bank deposits to equity markets [1] - As of July, new non-bank institution deposits reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a trend of residents moving funds into financial products, funds, and stocks [1] - The report from the China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center shows that by the end of June, the balance of public fund allocations in wealth management products was 1.38 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.2% of total investment assets, an increase of 0.45 trillion yuan compared to the end of the first quarter [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index has a more balanced industry distribution compared to other broad-based indices, focusing on high-end manufacturing and technology growth sectors while reflecting China's core assets and new productive forces [2] - As a core index focusing on emerging industries, the CSI A500 significantly overweights sectors such as defense, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, while reducing the weight of traditional financial and consumer industries [2] - The CSI A500 index dynamically reflects the direction of China's economic transformation, making it suitable for capturing long-term growth opportunities in the A-share market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant increases in trading volume and a shift in market dynamics towards a more resilient and structurally sound growth pattern [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a peak of 3746.67 points on August 19, marking a new high in nearly a decade, with trading volumes exceeding 20 trillion yuan for five consecutive trading days [1]. - The current market differs fundamentally from the 2021 peak at 3700 points, characterized by changes in valuation structure, funding nature, and market ecology [1]. Group 2: Funding Dynamics - The current A-share rally is supported by diverse funding sources, including retail investors and quantitative strategies, moving away from the previous "institutional hugging" model [2]. - Insurance funds have been steadily entering the market, with a reported increase in stock and securities investment holdings reaching 360.4 billion yuan in Q1, a 92% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Retail investor activity has surged, with a notable increase in new account openings and a return of margin trading, pushing the margin balance back above 2 trillion yuan [3]. - Foreign capital is also returning, with average daily trading volume of northbound funds rising to 202.4 billion yuan in July, a 36.3% increase from June [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a "gradual upward" trend in the market, supported by policy and funding, with three main characteristics: steady index growth, declining volatility, and a rotation of sectoral opportunities [4]. - The current market rally is underpinned by improving corporate earnings and ongoing reforms aimed at attracting long-term capital [4]. Group 5: Sector Focus - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors such as brokerage firms, AI industry chains, and undervalued consumer stocks as potential areas for investment [6]. - The overall market is expected to experience alternating hot spots, with a need for investors to be cautious of potential volatility and structural risks [6].