炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在股票市场进入四季度之际，多家公募发布2025年四季度策略，看好赚钱效应持续演绎。 基于居民存款搬家以及海外增量资金的持续涌入，基金经理对四季度A股和港股市场行情给予乐观判 断，预期市场延续震荡抬升格局，行情有望在政策呵护中逐级上移。A股和港股的科技股、新消费、互 联网、创新药等四大方向是布局的核心。 公募判断后市增量资金涌入 政策呵护与增量资金，已成为基金持续做多的信心基础。 鹏华基金表示，随着大盘指数突破十年新高，当前A股整体定价回归到合理状态。结构上看，股债再平 衡是推动近期ERP修复的主因，而市场对于成长定价依旧维持极度乐观。活跃资金加仓、机构由债入股 是近期主要的增量，存款搬家还在起步阶段，但后市具备较大潜力。 "对比历史，科技行情整体还未到过热阶段，科技行情有产业基本面变化的支撑。"鹏华基金强调，四季 度需关注科技板块内部局部拥挤度过高的问题，从平衡组合收益与波动的角度，在交易层面可以关注涨 幅相对滞后且基本面有积极变化的方向。 平安基金认为，今年增量资金供给有所提速，年初以来，资金供需波动有所加大，年初两融配合ETF共 同 ...

Group 1 - The overall industry selection framework focuses on resources, new productive forces, and globalization [2] - Resource stocks are shifting from cyclical attributes to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical expectations [2] - The globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing companies is expected to convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin improvements [2] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [3] - The recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risk outlook [3] - The upcoming reforms in the capital market, including the launch of the growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, are anticipated to accelerate market adjustments [3] Group 3 - The current market remains in a consolidation phase since September, with a positive funding environment supporting the ongoing trend [4] - The key factor for the continuation of the positive feedback from the funding side is the profitability effect [4] - Focus areas for investment include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer stocks [4] Group 4 - The three main drivers of the current upward trend in A-shares remain unchanged, with a focus on low penetration sectors [5] - Attention is drawn to solid-state batteries, AI computing power, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [5] - The market is still in a bull market phase, with expectations for further growth [5] Group 5 - There has been significant inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with a notable increase in passive fund inflows [6] - The reduction in positions in high-priced options indicates a cautious outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index [6] - Overall, the long-term outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index remains bullish [6] Group 6 - The market is currently experiencing a rotation among sectors, with a focus on individual stocks rather than indices [7] - Key areas of interest include humanoid robots, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7] - The market is expected to continue its rotation while maintaining a high level of focus on individual stock performance [7] Group 7 - The current market conditions suggest that a bull market driven by improving corporate earnings is in the making [8] - Opportunities are identified in upstream resources, capital goods, and raw materials due to improved operating conditions [8] - Domestic demand-related sectors are also expected to present opportunities as earnings recover [8] Group 8 - The market is transitioning from a focus on existing stocks to an expansion of new opportunities driven by incremental capital [9] - The emphasis is on identifying opportunities based on industry trends and economic conditions rather than merely switching between high and low positions [9] - The market is expected to see a broadening of investment opportunities as new capital flows in [9] Group 9 - The potential for low-position stocks to experience a rebound is increasing as the market approaches the fourth quarter [10] - Historical trends indicate that stocks that performed well in the third quarter may not continue their momentum into the fourth quarter [10] - The focus is on cyclical stocks and those benefiting from global pricing resources as key areas for investment in the upcoming quarter [10] Group 10 - The recovery of free cash flow in export-advantaged manufacturing sectors is anticipated due to policy changes and global re-industrialization [11] - The valuation system for China's advantageous manufacturing sectors is expected to undergo systematic restructuring [11] - The return of global capital to China is likely to drive a bullish trend in high-end manufacturing sectors [12]

Group 1 - The brokerage strategies remain positive, addressing market concerns such as high-low switching, market style in Q4, and the pace of retail investor entry [1] - The strategy team from Xingzheng emphasizes that the current market rotation is driven by incremental funds and economic advantages, focusing on identifying opportunities based on economic logic and industry trends rather than simple position switching [1][7] - The Citic strategy team highlights the importance of the globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing firms, which is expected to enhance pricing power and profit margins, leading to market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1][7] Group 2 - The strategy team from招商策略 notes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September historically correlates with a higher probability of A/H shares rising in the future [4] - Historical data indicates that the market tends to be relatively flat before the National Day holiday, but risk appetite improves significantly afterward, with over 60% probability of gains in major indices during the week following the holiday [4][8] - The strategy team from广发分析 suggests that the current rise in retail investor sentiment is still in its early stages, with various indicators showing that the market is not yet experiencing significant capital outflow from savings [1][9] Group 3 - The strategy from信达 suggests that the market is likely to continue its upward trend, with the current environment favoring strong industry trends while maintaining flexibility in high-low switching strategies [8] - The analysis indicates that the market is currently in a bull phase, with expectations of increased retail investment in the coming year, supported by a favorable policy environment [8] - The strategy team from国全策略 believes that the true bull market has not yet begun, but signs of recovery in corporate earnings and the potential for a new market cycle are emerging [9]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher but experienced fluctuations throughout the day, closing down 0.26% with a total trading volume of 986.2 billion, a decrease of 103.8 billion from the previous trading day [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index also opened slightly higher, closing up 0.63% with a trading volume of 1.29 trillion, down 140 billion from the previous day [2] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is in a narrow range of fluctuations, indicating a consolidation phase around recent highs, but the volume near these highs has decreased compared to previous peaks, suggesting a lack of momentum [3] - The MACD indicator shows that bullish momentum has not yet gained an advantage, advising a cautious approach to trading [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index continues to trend upwards but faces resistance from previous downtrends, indicating a likely consolidation phase unless new capital enters the market [3] Market Sentiment - The market showed mixed performance with approximately 1,916 stocks rising and 3,375 stocks falling, indicating a general lackluster market sentiment [4] - Short-term sentiment has cooled, with around 86 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 5 non-ST stocks hitting the daily limit down [5] Major Events - U.S. President Trump indicated that the Federal Reserve is expected to implement a significant interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting, marking the first easing in nine months [6] - The market is anticipating two major events: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and a new round of U.S.-Spain trade talks, which may influence market dynamics [8] Sector Performance - The market saw a rotation of hotspots, with sectors like batteries, energy storage, and gaming performing well, while sectors such as precious metals and aerospace faced declines [7][9] - The gaming sector showed strong performance, with a 23.53% year-on-year increase in the issuance of domestic game licenses from January to August, reflecting supportive government policies [11]

Industry Research - The A-share market is expected to receive multi-dimensional incremental capital support, driven by improved market profitability attracting individual investors, stable participation from industrial capital and public funds, and a potential shift of bank wealth management funds towards equity markets [4] - The performance recovery of public funds is likely to boost the issuance of equity funds [4] Company Research - Haolubo (688656.SH) is a leading company in the domestic allergy testing field, with steady revenue growth in recent years, achieving revenue of 402 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37 million yuan [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the issuance of equity mutual funds, with 66.147 billion units established in August, marking a month-on-month increase of 20.189 billion units, placing it in the 97.22 percentile over the past three years [8][9][10] - The report indicates that the issuance of active equity funds in August reached 16.961 billion units, up by 7.260 billion units from the previous month, while passive equity funds saw an issuance of 44.586 billion units, an increase of 9.284 billion units [10][11] - The report notes that the net subscription of existing equity ETFs in July was -3.349 billion yuan, but this figure improved significantly in August, with a net redemption scale narrowing [15][16] Group 2 - The report states that the scale of private securities funds increased significantly, with the total scale reaching 5.88 trillion yuan in July, reflecting a month-on-month increase [25][26] - The average position of private equity long strategies rose to 62.78% in July, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from June, indicating a recovery trend in private fund positions [26][31] - The report mentions that the monthly average trading volume of northbound funds in August was 294.227 billion yuan, a 51.96% increase from the previous month, with northbound trading accounting for 12.75% of total A-share trading [29][32] Group 3 - The report highlights that the margin financing balance reached 2.25 trillion yuan by the end of August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 13.92%, indicating a rise in trading activity [34][36] - The report indicates that the net inflow of margin financing in August was 272.986 billion yuan, with margin financing transactions accounting for 10.98% of total trading [38][40] - The report notes that institutional investor accounts saw a significant increase, with approximately 10,000 new institutional accounts opened in August, a year-on-year increase of 98.37% [43][45] Group 4 - The report states that the scale of equity assets held by insurance companies increased by 261.914 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a strong position in equity investments [47][49] - The report mentions that policies are being implemented to encourage insurance funds to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares starting in 2025, which is expected to further boost equity market participation [51][52] - The report indicates that the issuance of wealth management products in August was 6,120, with the number of products reaching maturity increasing by 27.19% month-on-month [55][57] Group 5 - The report highlights that industrial capital saw a net reduction of 31.458 billion yuan in August, with a daily average net reduction of 1.498 billion yuan, indicating a trend of profit-taking at high market levels [62][63] - The report notes that the three major capital flow indicators reached a value of 0.64 as of August 29, placing it in the 96th percentile since the end of 2015, indicating a heated trading environment [70][71] - The report suggests that the current market sentiment is high, with increased risk appetite among investors, driven by favorable domestic and international developments [8][10][29]

Market Style Outlook - The current liquidity-driven environment remains the main characteristic of the short-term stock market, with changes in market risk appetite dominating market rhythm. As September approaches, the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to influence market expectations. The current heat of financing funds has reached a relatively high level, and future inflows may slow down slightly. However, with the potential for the Fed to restart rate cuts, the appreciation of the RMB, and the stabilization of domestic PPI, foreign capital may gradually shift towards inflow. Historically, during the pullback phase of a bull market, previously strong styles may experience larger corrections, but the market quickly returns to the previous strong main style after a brief pullback. Therefore, the market style in September is likely to favor large-cap stocks, with growth styles expected to continue to dominate [1][4][12]. Liquidity and Fund Supply-Demand - In September, incremental funds are expected to continue net inflow, with positive feedback from incremental funds likely to persist. The central bank continues to use various liquidity management tools to meet liquidity needs, maintaining a strong willingness to protect liquidity. The overall funding rates are expected to remain low. External liquidity conditions are also favorable, with market expectations for a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which may lead to a weaker dollar index. In August, the net inflow of funds in the stock market expanded significantly, with financing funds becoming the main source of incremental capital. The supply side shows a rebound in the scale of newly issued equity funds, and the market's risk appetite continues to improve [2][3][20]. Market Sentiment and Fund Preference - In August, market risk appetite further rebounded, with the overall A-share risk premium falling below the historical average. Major indices broke through previous resistance levels, showing an accelerated upward trend. The technology style performed well, with the ChiNext 50 and the Growth Enterprise Market leading the gains. The performance of sectors related to communication electronics and AI computing was particularly strong, with notable performances in computer, power equipment, and machinery sectors [3][31][41]. Major Asset Performance Review - The A-share market led global markets in August, with major indices breaking previous loss resistance levels and showing an accelerated upward trend. The market's upward slope has slowed down towards the end of August, with a shift in style from small-cap to large-cap stocks. The ChiNext 50 and small-cap growth indices led the gains, while the value and dividend styles performed relatively weakly [31][36][37].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on September 1, 2025, with a trading volume of approximately 27,499.61 billion yuan, driven by sectors such as gold, CPO, innovative drugs, and storage chips [1] - As of August 29, 2025, the A-share financing balance reached a new high of 22,454.72 billion yuan, just 211.63 billion yuan short of the historical peak, with the Shenzhen market financing balance also hitting a record [1] - Market sentiment has been buoyed by factors such as the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, significant upcoming events, structural prosperity in mid-year reports, and advancements in the domestic AI industry, leading to substantial inflows of incremental capital [1] Group 2 - The A500 index rose by 0.85% as of September 1, 2025, with the leading A500 ETF (563800) increasing by 0.62%, marking three consecutive days of gains [2] - Financial institutions suggest that the A-share market's chip structure has improved following significant fluctuations, with the "anti-involution" policy and demand-side policies being crucial for market performance [2] - Core assets are becoming a focal point for the market, with expectations of a recovery in ROE as net profit margins improve and turnover stabilizes, indicating a potential end to the downward cycle [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillating upward in September, although at a potentially slower rate compared to August, driven by positive feedback from incremental capital inflows [3] - The external environment appears stable, with high expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that incremental capital is a direct driving force behind the rise of stocks and the stock market, highlighting the importance of understanding where this capital is flowing [3]. - The previous article discussed how high-net-worth individuals are channeling funds into the stock market through wealth management insurance and private equity, indicating a trend in capital movement [3]. - This article aims to explore two additional channels through which incremental capital is entering the stock market, suggesting a broader analysis of capital flows [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from August 18 to August 23, 2025, the convertible bond market continued to be strong, with the price center rising and risk appetite recovering. Amid valuation differentiation, high - price bonds showed stronger elasticity, medium - and low - price varieties recovered, while those around 100 yuan were under pressure. In terms of funds, the willingness of bank wealth management, ETFs, and insurance funds to increase allocations strengthened, and the trading volume of northbound funds increased, with potential for further growth. The equity market was dominated by the growth style, with technology sectors such as communication, electronics, and computer leading the gains. The cycle and manufacturing sectors were also actively traded, and capital concentration increased. Clause and redemption events were frequent, and market gaming intensified. Overall, it is recommended to follow the technology and manufacturing mainlines, focus on individual bonds with both underlying stock support and elasticity, and be vigilant against fluctuations in high - congestion sectors while balancing and seizing structural opportunities [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Incremental Funds and Market Support - The current incremental funds in the convertible bond market come from diverse sources. Bank wealth management, ETFs, and insurance funds are important driving forces. Bank wealth management subsidiaries have a stronger willingness to allocate to equity - related assets due to the increasing proportion of fixed - income + products. The scale of stock - type and convertible - bond - type ETFs has been continuously expanding, and recent capital inflows have effectively supported the market. After the recovery of premium income, insurance funds also show the motivation to increase allocations to equity - related and equity markets. Northbound funds' trading volume has increased, providing potential support for the equity and convertible bond markets. The optimization of the incremental fund structure is expected to strengthen market resilience [10]. 3.2 A - share Market Performance - The major A - share stock indices continued to be strong during the week, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains and the small - and medium - cap growth style being prominent. Although the main funds still had a net outflow, the outflow pressure was marginally relieved, and market sentiment improved. Industry performance was significantly differentiated. Technology - growth sectors such as communication, electronics, and computer led the gains, and there were signs of recovery in the consumer sector, while some cycle sectors were under pressure. Capital was highly concentrated in directions such as electronics and computer, and technology - growth became the core mainline of the market. It is recommended to seize the rotation opportunities within the sectors, be vigilant against the risk of crowded trading, and maintain a flexible and balanced allocation [10]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market continued to be strong during the week, with mid - cap bonds performing better and large - cap bonds relatively weaker. The risk appetite of funds continued to recover. The valuation structure continued to be differentiated, with the high - price range strengthening significantly, some mid - price varieties recovering, and the core range around 100 yuan still under pressure. The implied volatility fluctuated upwards, indicating an increased market expectation of subsequent fluctuations. In terms of industries, machinery and equipment and power equipment were actively traded, and capital concentration increased. Among individual bonds, those with the highest gains were mostly driven by underlying stocks and had the advantages of high elasticity and long duration. It is recommended to focus on varieties with strong underlying stock support and elasticity and beware of risks in high - level sectors [10]. 3.4 Convertible Bond Primary Market - The supply of the convertible bond primary market was stable during the week. One new bond started subscription, and many companies updated their issuance plans, with sufficient subsequent reserves. In terms of clauses, 6 bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 4 bonds clearly stated not to make downward revisions, and 1 bond proposed a downward revision. On the redemption side, 8 bonds were expected to trigger redemption, 8 bonds announced not to redeem in advance, and 8 bonds announced the implementation of forced redemptions. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the marginal impact of clause events on pricing and seize the structural allocation opportunities brought by gaming [10]. 3.5 Market Theme Weekly Review 3.5.1 Equity Theme Weekly Review - During the week, the trading themes in the equity market were active. The stock - trading software index led the gains with a cross - week increase of 27.3%, followed by the consecutive - limit - up index with a 23.8% increase. AI and computer hardware, semiconductor and chip, and communication sectors all performed well, while only the bank - selected index and the system - important financial institution index declined. Short - term funds were highly active, and capital was concentrated in trading themes such as consecutive - limit - up and technology directions such as AI computing power [34]. 3.5.2 Convertible Bond Weekly Review - The convertible bond market remained strong during the week, with mid - cap bonds leading the gains, small - cap bonds rising in tandem, and large - cap bonds lagging behind. The risk appetite of funds continued to recover. The valuation was significantly differentiated, and the implied volatility fluctuated at a high level. The electronics, machinery and equipment, and power equipment sectors were actively traded, and consumer sectors continued to recover. It is recommended to seize the repair opportunities in technology and cycle directions, be vigilant against fluctuations in high - valuation sectors, and make a balanced allocation [36]. 3.6 Market Weekly Tracking 3.6.1 Major Stock Indices and Industry Performance - Major A - share stock indices continued to be strong during the week, with mid - and small - cap stocks performing better. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.6%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.9%. Although the main funds continued to flow out, the outflow pressure increased marginally, and market sentiment tended to be cautious. The comprehensive, communication, and electronics sectors led the gains, and the consumer sector generally recovered. Capital was concentrated in technology - growth sectors such as communication and electronics [39][43]. 3.6.2 Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market continued to strengthen during the week, with the mid - cap index leading the gains. The risk appetite of funds increased. The valuation stretched overall according to the parity range and showed a differentiated pattern according to the market - price range. The implied volatility fluctuated upwards, and the median price of convertible bonds continued to rise. The performance of convertible bonds in all sectors was generally strong, and capital concentration increased slightly. Most individual bonds strengthened, and those with the highest gains were mostly driven by underlying stocks [56][64][71]. 3.7 Issuance and Clause Tracking 3.7.1 Primary Market Issuance Plan - A total of 12 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans during the week, including 1 in the approval - registration stage, 3 in the exchange - acceptance stage, 2 in the shareholders' - meeting stage, and 6 in the board - of - directors' - plan stage. The total disclosed scale of projects in the exchange - acceptance stage and later was 547.6 billion yuan [77][78]. 3.7.2 Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - Six convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 4 announced not to make downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. Eight convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemption, 8 announced not to redeem in advance, and 8 announced the implementation of forced redemptions [86][92].