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证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 核心结论：①25 年 A 股增量资金市场特征明显，杠杆资金、私募资金等活跃 资金成为主要入市力量，险资亦有较大入市体量，主动偏股公募整体净赎回。 ②当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部分居民风险偏好自低位 逐渐修复，26 年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金。③25 年宏微观背景 与 20 年均具有一定相似性，但增量资金结构存在差异，借鉴历史伴随居民 资金入市进程推进，26 年全年增量资金预计达 2 万亿元。 2025 年 A 股增量资金主力来自活跃资金。25 年亮眼行情的背后离不开充裕 的资金面支撑，25 年的资金入市可分为两个阶段：25 年上半年市场行情震 荡修复，政策支持+产业催化下各路资金"多点开花"。上半年一方面代表 散户资金的银证转账资金流入 2400 亿元，外资亦阶段性回流约 1000 亿元； 另一方面追求长线投资的险资大幅流入约 4200 亿元，此外 ETF 资金亦流入 约 800 亿元。行业层面看，上半年增量资金主要流入科技和红利板块。Q3 以 来市场放量拉升，主要增量资金来自私募和融资交易等活跃资金。一方面杠 杆资金大幅入市，7 月以来杠杆资 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 策略专题 入市增量资金有望超两万亿——2026 年牛市展望系列 1 核心结论：①25 年 A 股增量资金市场特征明显，杠杆资金、私募资金等活跃 资金成为主要入市力量，险资亦有较大入市体量，主动偏股公募整体净赎回。 ②当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部分居民风险偏好自低位 逐渐修复，26 年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金。③25 年宏微观背景 与 20 年均具有一定相似性，但增量资金结构存在差异，借鉴历史伴随居民 资金入市进程推进，26 年全年增量资金预计达 2 万亿元。 2025 年 A 股增量资金主力来自活跃资金。25 年亮眼行情的背后离不开充裕 的资金面支撑，25 年的资金入市可分为两个阶段：25 年上半年市场行情震 荡修复，政策支持+产业催化下各路资金"多点开花"。上半年一方面代表 散户资金的银证转账资金流入 2400 亿元，外资亦阶段性回流约 1000 亿元； 另一方面追求长线投资的险资大幅流入约 4200 亿元，此外 ETF 资金亦流入 约 800 亿元。行业层面看，上半年增量资金主要流入科技和红利板块。Q3 以 来市场放量拉升，主要增量资金来自 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月08日 策略专题 入市增量资金有望超两万亿——2026 年牛市展望系列 1 021-61761046 wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn S0980525120001 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | 8611.80/8.22 | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | 3329.69/7.09 | | AH 股价差指数 | 122.54 | | A 股总/流通市值 (万亿元) | 100.35/92.27 | 核心结论：①25 年 A 股增量资金市场特征明显，杠杆资金、私募资金等活跃 资金成为主要入市力量，险资亦有较大入市体量，主动偏股公募整体净赎回。 ②当前入市资金或主要来源于高净值人群，随着大部分居民风险偏好自低位 逐渐修复，26 年普通居民资金有望成为主力入市资金。③25 年宏微观背景 与 20 年均具有一定相似性，但增量资金结构存在差异，借鉴历史伴随居民 资金入市进程推进，26 年全年增量资金预计达 2 万亿元。 2025 年 A 股增量资金主力来自活跃资金。25 年亮眼行情的背后离不开充裕 的资金面支撑，25 年的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Group 1: Core Insights - Private equity firms are focusing on long-term growth logic for 2026, with a consensus emerging around the AI wave transitioning from a "arms race" at the model level to a "blooming" application level [2] - The restructuring of global supply chains is benefiting Chinese manufacturing, which is leveraging hard technology to break through in this new environment [2] - The rebalancing of global asset allocation is expected to continue, with a reassessment of the value of Chinese assets ongoing [2] Group 2: AI Wave - AI remains a critical area for investment, with firms like Jinglin Asset emphasizing that companies lacking AI capabilities may be marginalized [3] - The AI sector, particularly in areas like autonomous driving and AI healthcare, is anticipated to present significant long-term opportunities in 2026 [3][4] - The proliferation of AI smartphones and AI glasses is expected, although challenges such as user privacy and technical issues need to be addressed [4] Group 3: Chinese Manufacturing - Chinese manufacturing is a key investment focus for private equity in 2026, with firms like Dushuquan highlighting the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturers in the global market [5] - The export performance of Chinese manufacturing in 2025 exceeded market expectations, indicating strong competitiveness in various sectors [5] - The potential for Chinese manufacturers to apply domestic management experience abroad is seen as a long-term growth strategy [5] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation Rebalancing - There is a noticeable shift among international institutional investors towards increasing allocations to Chinese assets, driven by a recognition of China's competitive strengths [6] - The Chinese stock market is transitioning from a cautious investment perception to one viewed as having strategic allocation value [6] Group 5: Incremental Capital - The reallocation of assets by residents and institutions is expected to support structural market trends in 2026, with high-net-worth individuals and insurance funds leading this shift [7] - A significant amount of long-term deposits accumulated since 2022 is expected to flow into the stock market through various channels, providing substantial incremental capital [7] - The demand for equity asset allocation is recovering, supported by a low-interest-rate environment, which is likely to enhance market liquidity [7]

"在投资的路上，我们都需要持续进步""弱水三千，我只要取属于我的那一瓢""希望2026年的收益能超 过2025年""2026年会更关注产业层面的机会""希望2026年的A股市场能够更稳健、平稳地发展"……一位 位投资者对2026年A股市场表达期许。 2025年，A股市场持续上涨，上证指数一度站上4000点，A股总市值、成交额、融资余额等连创纪录。 2026年资本市场的画卷即将展开，投资者对2026年A股市场充满期待。业内人士表示，2026年我国宏观 经济有望在政策支持下保持稳健复苏态势，A股市场资金面有望保持活跃，基本面重要性进一步上升， 全年市场有望延续上行趋势。 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 马爽 政策加码可期 夯实经济回升基础 "夯实基础、全面发力""双宽松护航""更上层阶""乘势而上"……梳理多家券商对2026年国内宏观经济展 望的关键词可见，作为"十五五"开局之年，政策协同推动经济稳健复苏已成共识。尽管面临外部环境变 化与内部结构调整，但中国宏观经济有望在政策支持下延续稳健复苏态势。 前瞻性政策部署已筑牢根基。2025年末召开的中央经济工作会议明确"稳中求进、提质增效"的政策取 向，为2026年政策发力定调 ...

中信钢铁指数报收 1,933.16 点，下跌 0.55%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.03pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：2026 年新的一年已经到来，过去两年我们用《走向成熟》、《时 代的周期》、《告别放任的年代》、《江河万古流》、《重估中国》以及《人间 正道是沧桑》六份周期深度报告去扭转过去盛行的用所谓的西方经验对中 国的悲观叙事。当 2025 年一连串事件冲击后，事实证明其实以前很多担 忧都是过虑了。社会认知开始反思，过去两三年一度流行的"中国经济的 日本叙事"论调也随之破产。其实我们生命中有很多周期很长以至于我们 不易察觉，只有有些距离感以后才能看清楚一些事情的轮廓。如今经过工 业化成熟后的转型蜕变，崭新的中国故事未来也将绽放光芒。在新的发展 阶段，后发工业国成熟后资本市场繁荣的基础是全社会总量的资本过剩， 结构上分别通过居民存款配置、金融机构大类资产配置、企业分红回购与 海外热钱等渠道注入市场，这些资金管道共同构成了增量资金的主要来 源，当其中一个部门形成较大资金流进入资本市场的时候，股市就会出现 趋势性牛市上涨的行情。当全社会将过剩资本通过以上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to remain relatively strong as it broke through the previous oscillation range last week. In 2026, the rapid rise phase driven by liquidity and market risk preference may have ended, and the A - share "slow - bull" pattern is entering the second half. With macro - policy support, inflation warming, and capital market policy guidance, the stock index is expected to rise further in 2026 compared to 2025. Futures traders can use the futures discount structure to enhance the winning rate of long - position strategies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Markets - DR001 closed at 1.24 with a - 0.21bp change, DR007 at 1.69 with a 9.30bp change, GC001 at 2.04 with a 20.00bp change, and GC007 at 2.05 with a 2.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.60 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds were at 1.34, 1.61, and 1.86 respectively, with changes of 0.50bp, 1.25bp, and 0.20bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond was at 4.12 with a - 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 673 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment was 4150 billion yuan. This week (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [3][4]. Stock Indexes and Futures - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: the CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4651, the SSE 50 rose 0.06% to 3037, the CSI 500 rose 0.38% to 7459, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.04% to 7597. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan. Industry sectors showed more declines than increases [5][6]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF volume was 94429 with a - 1.8% change, and its position was 281129 with a 1.9% change; IH volume was 41166 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 88407 with a 1.3% change; IC volume was 117475 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 288847 with a 4.7% change; IM volume was 163327 with a 2.3% change, and its position was 372661 with a 3.0% change [5]. - The current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF had an average premium of 3.55%, 3.21%, 2.85%, and 3.36% respectively; IH had 0.81%, 0.73%, 0.17%, and 0.71% respectively; IC had 0.50%, 3.91%, 4.77%, and 7.38% respectively; IM had 0.99%, 7.14%, 8.29%, and 10.38% respectively [7].

| 大涨板块 | 251226 (周5) | 251225 (周4) | 251224 (周3) | 251223 (周2) | 251222 (周1) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 玩天29 | 航天42 | 师天37 | 锂电池8 | 海南自由贸易港23 | | 2 | 海南自由贸易港8 | 机器人24 | 福建自贸/海西概念11 | 液冷服务器7 | 光通信12 | | 3 | 锂电池16 | 造纸4 | 液冷服务器3 | 海南自由贸易港5 | 国产芯片17 | | র্ব | 黄金3 | 跨境支付3 | 国产商片5 | PCB板4 | 民爆2 | | રે | 光伏7 | 西部大开发3 | 光通信8 | 有色 · 钨2 | 航天10 | | 6 | ST股10 | ST股15 | ST股10 | ST股13 | ST股23 | | 7 | 大消费9 | 国产商片9 | 大消费8 | 国产商片10 | 机器人9 | | 8 | 机器人9 | 大消费7 | 云计算数据中心5 | 大消费7 | 大消费8 | | 9 | 有色金属6 | 股权转让4 ...