1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy shows a mixed picture, with some indicators experiencing decline while others are on the rise. For example, GDP growth rate has decreased, but social financing scale has increased [1]. - The commodity market is active, with significant capital inflow on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, especially in gold, silver, copper, and lithium carbonate [2]. - The stock market has different performances, with A - shares having a good start in the Year of the Horse, while the Hong Kong stock market has declined [29]. - The bond market is relatively strong, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and some bond prices rising or falling [19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1]. - Social financing scale in January 2026 was 7220.8 billion yuan, a significant increase from 817.8 billion yuan in the previous month [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in January 2026 were 2.7%, 4.9%, and 9.0% respectively, with M0 and M1 growth rates decreasing compared to the previous month, while M2 growth rate increased [1]. - CPI in January 2026 was 0.2% year - on - year, the same as the previous month; PPI was - 1.4% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.1% in the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The 1 - year LPR is 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, remaining unchanged for 9 consecutive months. Policy interest rates and LPR quotes are likely to remain stable in the short term [2]. - On February 24, the commodity futures market had a net capital inflow of nearly 45 billion yuan, with significant inflows into gold, silver, copper, and lithium carbonate [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin ratios and price limits for some contracts starting from February 24 [2]. - The US has started to levy a 10% global tariff and is preparing to raise it to 15%. It is also considering additional tariffs on six industries [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - The Ministry of Commerce included 20 Japanese entities in the export control list and 20 in the watch list to prevent Japan's "remilitarization" and nuclear - possession attempts [5]. - In December 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 173,000 tons [6]. - As of February 24, 2026, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 7.72 tons to 1094.19 tons [6]. - Many countries are implementing strategies for key mineral reserves, which may lead to a shift in commodity policies [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Trump administration plans to use an AI project to set reference prices for key minerals in a global metal trading group [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic refined oil prices have increased for the third time this year. On February 24, gasoline and diesel prices were raised by 175 yuan/ton and 170 yuan/ton respectively [9]. - Venezuela will increase its crude oil exports starting from March, especially to India [9]. - The CEO of Occidental Petroleum said that US oil production can remain stable when oil prices are between $60 - 65 per barrel [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - ICE cocoa fell below $3000/ton, reaching its lowest level since March 2024 [11]. - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that US beef exports will decrease by 6% and imports will increase by 3% in 2026 compared to 2025 [11]. - India's soybean meal exports in January 2026 increased to 132,440 tons [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 - 15 decreased by 11.2% [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 24, the central bank conducted 526 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan as 1452.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [13]. - The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations in February, with an additional 300 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased renewal [13]. 3.3.2 Important News - The US has started to levy a 10% global tariff and is considering raising it to 15%, as well as additional tariffs on six industries. China is closely monitoring and may adjust counter - measures [14]. - Panama's government took over two container terminals operated by CK Hutchison. China will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the enterprise [15]. - The State Council meeting deployed post - Spring Festival government work, including promoting the development of the silver - haired economy and pension services [15]. - The Spring Festival holiday had record - high domestic tourism numbers and spending [15]. - The consumer goods trade - in program in 2026 has benefited 30.532 million people and driven sales of 204.54 billion yuan [16]. - The Spring Festival travel season had a record - high travel volume, with an 8.2% year - on - year increase [16]. - The real estate market in core cities may experience a "small spring" recovery after the holiday [16]. - The LPR has remained unchanged for 9 consecutive months, and policy interest rates are likely to remain stable in the short term [16]. - The public fund issuance market was active on the first trading day after the Spring Festival [17]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the inter - bank bond market was relatively strong, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and treasury bond futures rising [19]. - The inter - bank market funds were slightly tightened, with the weighted average interest rates of DR001, DR007, and DR014 rising [20]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose and some fell, and the Wande real - estate bond 30 index and high - yield urban investment bond index rose [20]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose [21]. - Most money market interest rates rose [21]. - Shibor short - term varieties mostly rose [22]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds rose across the board [22]. - The winning bid yields and multiples of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were announced [23]. - European bond yields fell collectively, and US bond yields showed mixed trends [23][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 265 points to 6.8849 at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate was depreciated by 16 points [25]. - The US dollar index rose 0.17%, and most non - US currencies fell [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the Chinese - funded US - dollar bond market is volatile, and it is recommended to prioritize the coupon strategy and use hedging tools [26]. - CITIC Securities believes that the recent fluctuations in US tariff policies may have limited impact on China's exports in 2026 [27]. 3.4 Stock Market News - A - shares had a good start in the Year of the Horse, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.99%. Resource - related stocks rose, while some sectors such as film and AI application stocks declined [29]. - The Hong Kong stock market fell, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.82%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.13%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 2.06%. Some sectors such as large - scale technology stocks and financial stocks declined, while some sectors such as AI application and oil and gas stocks rose [29].

Market Overview - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures closed down approximately 2% due to a significant decline in the commodity market [1] Export Data - As of February 1, the European Union's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year stands at 12.82 million tons, unchanged from the previous year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year is reported at 5.77 million tons, an increase from 2.84 million tons last year [1] Policy Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued opinions to anchor agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization, emphasizing the need for enhanced monitoring and information dissemination in agricultural markets [1] - The policy aims to stabilize important agricultural product prices, including setting reasonable minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat, and improving cotton target price policies [1] - The implementation of subsidies for farmland fertility protection, corn and soybean producers, and rice is to be maintained [1] U.S. Wheat Export Inspections - As of the week ending January 29, 2026, U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 326,828 tons, down from a revised 378,991 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspections for the current crop year, which began on June 1, amount to 16.69 million tons, compared to 14.07 million tons during the same period last year [1]

Market Overview - The main contract for strong wheat futures remained unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of the report date [1] Export Data - As of January 15, 2026, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 392,611 tons, up from a revised 317,964 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year reached 15,974,550 tons, compared to 13,330,168 tons during the same period last year [1] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year was reported at 11.8 million tons, slightly down from 12 million tons the previous year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year was 5.5 million tons, significantly up from 2.6 million tons the previous year [1] Domestic Market Conditions - Recent cold wave and snow weather have disrupted transportation, increasing logistics costs and leading to price increases in certain regional markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Algeria is enhancing its food security by diversifying high-quality hard wheat import sources, optimizing food supply chain management, and strengthening international cooperation [1] Group 1: International Cooperation - A food cooperation exchange meeting between Algeria and Canada was held in Algiers, showcasing the quality of Canada's new harvest hard wheat and discussing supply stability, logistics assurance, and quality control [1] - The Canadian delegation highlighted North America's practices in wheat breeding, quality testing, and supply chain management, emphasizing improved yield and quality this year, which can provide Algeria with long-term and reliable supply assurance [1] Group 2: Domestic Supply Chain Management - Algeria's grain management department and procurement agencies (OAIC) shared technical training and value chain collaboration plans, indicating a commitment to enhance cooperation with Canadian companies in grain storage, port shipping, and quality monitoring [1] - Algeria is accelerating the adjustment of its import structure to ensure stable food supply, increasing the procurement ratio from North America while maintaining existing European and Black Sea supply channels to reduce single-source risk [1] Group 3: Procurement and Inventory - Recently, Algeria procured approximately 810,000 to 900,000 tons of soft wheat through international tender, with contract prices around $256 per ton (including freight), expected to arrive in batches by February 2026 [1] - With key batches arriving and supply chain arrangements progressing steadily, Algeria's food inventory security is further enhanced, providing stability for domestic market prices and supply [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for strong wheat futures remains unchanged, reported at 3050.00 yuan as of the latest update [1] - According to foreign media forecasts, U.S. net sales of wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to be between 200,000 to 600,000 tons by the week ending November 13, 2025 [2] - The European Commission reported that the EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year is 10.16 million tons, compared to 10.46 million tons last year [2] Group 2 - Argentina's economy minister announced a reduction in export taxes for wheat and barley from 9.5% to 7.5% [2] - A batch of wheat is scheduled for delivery in January 2026 at a cost of $235.90 per ton, excluding common unloading fees in Thai trade [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for strong wheat futures remains unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of November 5 [1] - The European Union's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year is 3.76 million tons, compared to 1.73 million tons last year [2] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year is 8.03 million tons, slightly down from 8.32 million tons last year [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting regarding the autumn sowing in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, which accounts for about 90% of the national wheat production [2] - Continuous rainy weather has delayed sowing and poses challenges for the safe overwintering of winter wheat [2] - The USDA reported that the U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the week ending October 30, 2025, was 350,293 tons, up from a revised 269,420 tons the previous week [2] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year is 11.83 million tons, compared to 9.81 million tons during the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than the 50.2% in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Comprehensive - Shanghai introduced a package of real estate policies, including relaxed housing purchase restrictions, increased housing provident fund loan limits for green buildings, and unified mortgage rates for first and second homes [2] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued an opinion on promoting green - low - carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market, aiming to basically complete the national carbon emission trading market by 2030 [2] - The CSRC issued the Interim Provisions on the Internet Marketing Management of Futures Companies, which will take effect on October 9 [2] Metals - KGHM's copper production in July was 59,900 tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease, and sales were 56,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year decrease [3] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On August 25, futures prices of iron ore, hot - rolled coils, and rebar rose. Rebar's performance this year has been mainly affected by the real estate industry [4] - In mid - August, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, a 1.98% month - on - month and 6.1% year - on - year increase [4][5] - Henan coking enterprises will implement production cuts from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated reduction of 20 - 35% [5] Energy and Chemicals - Domestic refined oil prices may be lowered for the seventh time this year, with an expected reduction of about 200 yuan/ton on August 26 [6] - On August 25, international oil prices continued to rise, supported by geopolitical tensions and supply - side factors [6] - The Ministry of Natural Resources organized the listing of 7 oil and gas exploration rights, indicating a new wave of oil and gas exploration and development [6] Agricultural Products - As of mid - August, the price of soybean meal rose 2.59% month - on - month to 3049.3 yuan/ton, reaching a new high since early May [8] - The price of soybeans rose 1.2% month - on - month to 4443.1 yuan/ton, a new high since early August 2024 [8] - The price of live pigs (outside ternary) fell 0.72% month - on - month to 13.8 yuan/kg, a new low since late February 2024 [8] Group 3: Financial News Open Market - On August 25, the central bank conducted 288.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 21.9 billion yuan [11] - The central bank successfully issued 45 billion yuan of RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [11] Important News - Shanghai introduced real estate policies to stimulate the market [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand [12] - Multiple regions issued plans to promote the high - quality development of the private economy [12] Bond Market Summary - Bond futures and spot bonds showed an independent trend. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined, and long - term bonds performed better than short - term bonds [15] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46% to 490.98 points, hitting a new high in more than ten years [16] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1517 on August 25, up 288 points from the previous trading day [20] - The US dollar index rose 0.74% to 98.44 in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [20] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that in a slow - bull stock market, bond trading can increase portfolio returns, and the current credit bond carry trade space is high [22] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the current bond market has weak coupon protection and high volatility, and recommends curve steepening trades [22] Group 4: Stock Market - A - share major indices rose significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% to 3883.56 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also had large gains [26] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.94% to 25829.91 points, hitting a new high in nearly four years [26] - The scale of China's ETF market is about to reach 5 trillion yuan [26]

Core Insights - The official data indicates that the European Union's soft wheat export volume for the 2024/25 season is 19.93 million tons, a significant decrease from 30.53 million tons during the same period last year [1] Group 1 - The current soft wheat export volume represents a decline of approximately 34% year-over-year [1]

Energy - Morgan Stanley predicts that an attack on Iran could drive oil prices up to $120 per barrel and push the US CPI to 5% [2] - Morgan Stanley maintains a basic expectation of oil prices in the range of $60 to $65 for the remainder of 2025, with a forecast of $60 for 2026 [2] - Israel is considering military action against Iran in the coming days, with operations targeting dozens of Iranian sites under the code name "Lion's Strength" [2] Precious Metals and Mining - The US plans to invoke the Defense Production Act for rare earth elements [3] - The US announced tariffs on steel appliances, including washing machines and refrigerators, effective from the 23rd [3] Agriculture - Coceral raised the EU and UK soft wheat production forecast for 2025 from 137.2 million tons in March to 143.1 million tons [4] - The USDA's soybean production forecast for the US in the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, aligning with market expectations [4] - The USDA maintained Argentina's soybean production forecast for 2024/2025 at 49 million tons, slightly below market expectations, and Brazil's forecast at 169 million tons, also unchanged [4] Trade Situation - Japan's trade negotiator rejected partial agreements with the US [5] - The US Commerce Department has established a tariff exemption procedure specifically for automobiles assembled in the US [5] - Trump is set to sign key parts of the US-UK trade agreement in the coming days [5]