投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-25 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | ...

据欧盟委员会，截至2月1日，欧盟2025/26年软小麦出口量为1282万吨，而去年为1282万吨；欧盟 2025/26年大麦出口量为577万吨，而去年为284万吨。 中共中央、国务院发布关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见。意见指出，加强农产品 市场监测预警和信息发布，统筹做好市场化收购和政策性收储，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理 水平。合理确定稻谷、小麦最低收购价，完善棉花目标价格政策。稳定实施耕地地力保护补贴、玉米大 豆生产者补贴和稻谷补贴政策。 美国农业部数据显示，截至2026年1月29日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为326828吨，前一周修正后为 378991吨，初值为351001吨。2025年1月30日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为253137吨。本作物年度迄 今，美国小麦出口检验量累计为16685581吨，上一年度同期14067849吨。美国小麦作物年度自6月1日开 始。 据外媒报道，周一，由于大宗商品市场大幅下挫，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）软红冬小麦期货收盘下 跌，基准期约收低2%。 市场资讯： ...

Market Overview - The main contract for strong wheat futures remained unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of the report date [1] Export Data - As of January 15, 2026, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 392,611 tons, up from a revised 317,964 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year reached 15,974,550 tons, compared to 13,330,168 tons during the same period last year [1] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year was reported at 11.8 million tons, slightly down from 12 million tons the previous year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year was 5.5 million tons, significantly up from 2.6 million tons the previous year [1] Domestic Market Conditions - Recent cold wave and snow weather have disrupted transportation, increasing logistics costs and leading to price increases in certain regional markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Algeria is enhancing its food security by diversifying high-quality hard wheat import sources, optimizing food supply chain management, and strengthening international cooperation [1] Group 1: International Cooperation - A food cooperation exchange meeting between Algeria and Canada was held in Algiers, showcasing the quality of Canada's new harvest hard wheat and discussing supply stability, logistics assurance, and quality control [1] - The Canadian delegation highlighted North America's practices in wheat breeding, quality testing, and supply chain management, emphasizing improved yield and quality this year, which can provide Algeria with long-term and reliable supply assurance [1] Group 2: Domestic Supply Chain Management - Algeria's grain management department and procurement agencies (OAIC) shared technical training and value chain collaboration plans, indicating a commitment to enhance cooperation with Canadian companies in grain storage, port shipping, and quality monitoring [1] - Algeria is accelerating the adjustment of its import structure to ensure stable food supply, increasing the procurement ratio from North America while maintaining existing European and Black Sea supply channels to reduce single-source risk [1] Group 3: Procurement and Inventory - Recently, Algeria procured approximately 810,000 to 900,000 tons of soft wheat through international tender, with contract prices around $256 per ton (including freight), expected to arrive in batches by February 2026 [1] - With key batches arriving and supply chain arrangements progressing steadily, Algeria's food inventory security is further enhanced, providing stability for domestic market prices and supply [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for strong wheat futures remains unchanged, reported at 3050.00 yuan as of the latest update [1] - According to foreign media forecasts, U.S. net sales of wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to be between 200,000 to 600,000 tons by the week ending November 13, 2025 [2] - The European Commission reported that the EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year is 10.16 million tons, compared to 10.46 million tons last year [2] Group 2 - Argentina's economy minister announced a reduction in export taxes for wheat and barley from 9.5% to 7.5% [2] - A batch of wheat is scheduled for delivery in January 2026 at a cost of $235.90 per ton, excluding common unloading fees in Thai trade [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for strong wheat futures remains unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of November 5 [1] - The European Union's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year is 3.76 million tons, compared to 1.73 million tons last year [2] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year is 8.03 million tons, slightly down from 8.32 million tons last year [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting regarding the autumn sowing in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, which accounts for about 90% of the national wheat production [2] - Continuous rainy weather has delayed sowing and poses challenges for the safe overwintering of winter wheat [2] - The USDA reported that the U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the week ending October 30, 2025, was 350,293 tons, up from a revised 269,420 tons the previous week [2] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year is 11.83 million tons, compared to 9.81 million tons during the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than the 50.2% in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Comprehensive - Shanghai introduced a package of real estate policies, including relaxed housing purchase restrictions, increased housing provident fund loan limits for green buildings, and unified mortgage rates for first and second homes [2] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued an opinion on promoting green - low - carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market, aiming to basically complete the national carbon emission trading market by 2030 [2] - The CSRC issued the Interim Provisions on the Internet Marketing Management of Futures Companies, which will take effect on October 9 [2] Metals - KGHM's copper production in July was 59,900 tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease, and sales were 56,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year decrease [3] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On August 25, futures prices of iron ore, hot - rolled coils, and rebar rose. Rebar's performance this year has been mainly affected by the real estate industry [4] - In mid - August, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, a 1.98% month - on - month and 6.1% year - on - year increase [4][5] - Henan coking enterprises will implement production cuts from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated reduction of 20 - 35% [5] Energy and Chemicals - Domestic refined oil prices may be lowered for the seventh time this year, with an expected reduction of about 200 yuan/ton on August 26 [6] - On August 25, international oil prices continued to rise, supported by geopolitical tensions and supply - side factors [6] - The Ministry of Natural Resources organized the listing of 7 oil and gas exploration rights, indicating a new wave of oil and gas exploration and development [6] Agricultural Products - As of mid - August, the price of soybean meal rose 2.59% month - on - month to 3049.3 yuan/ton, reaching a new high since early May [8] - The price of soybeans rose 1.2% month - on - month to 4443.1 yuan/ton, a new high since early August 2024 [8] - The price of live pigs (outside ternary) fell 0.72% month - on - month to 13.8 yuan/kg, a new low since late February 2024 [8] Group 3: Financial News Open Market - On August 25, the central bank conducted 288.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 21.9 billion yuan [11] - The central bank successfully issued 45 billion yuan of RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [11] Important News - Shanghai introduced real estate policies to stimulate the market [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand [12] - Multiple regions issued plans to promote the high - quality development of the private economy [12] Bond Market Summary - Bond futures and spot bonds showed an independent trend. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined, and long - term bonds performed better than short - term bonds [15] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46% to 490.98 points, hitting a new high in more than ten years [16] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1517 on August 25, up 288 points from the previous trading day [20] - The US dollar index rose 0.74% to 98.44 in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [20] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that in a slow - bull stock market, bond trading can increase portfolio returns, and the current credit bond carry trade space is high [22] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the current bond market has weak coupon protection and high volatility, and recommends curve steepening trades [22] Group 4: Stock Market - A - share major indices rose significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% to 3883.56 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also had large gains [26] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.94% to 25829.91 points, hitting a new high in nearly four years [26] - The scale of China's ETF market is about to reach 5 trillion yuan [26]

Core Insights - The official data indicates that the European Union's soft wheat export volume for the 2024/25 season is 19.93 million tons, a significant decrease from 30.53 million tons during the same period last year [1] Group 1 - The current soft wheat export volume represents a decline of approximately 34% year-over-year [1]

Energy - Morgan Stanley predicts that an attack on Iran could drive oil prices up to $120 per barrel and push the US CPI to 5% [2] - Morgan Stanley maintains a basic expectation of oil prices in the range of $60 to $65 for the remainder of 2025, with a forecast of $60 for 2026 [2] - Israel is considering military action against Iran in the coming days, with operations targeting dozens of Iranian sites under the code name "Lion's Strength" [2] Precious Metals and Mining - The US plans to invoke the Defense Production Act for rare earth elements [3] - The US announced tariffs on steel appliances, including washing machines and refrigerators, effective from the 23rd [3] Agriculture - Coceral raised the EU and UK soft wheat production forecast for 2025 from 137.2 million tons in March to 143.1 million tons [4] - The USDA's soybean production forecast for the US in the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, aligning with market expectations [4] - The USDA maintained Argentina's soybean production forecast for 2024/2025 at 49 million tons, slightly below market expectations, and Brazil's forecast at 169 million tons, also unchanged [4] Trade Situation - Japan's trade negotiator rejected partial agreements with the US [5] - The US Commerce Department has established a tariff exemption procedure specifically for automobiles assembled in the US [5] - Trump is set to sign key parts of the US-UK trade agreement in the coming days [5]