Group 1 - The main contract for strong wheat futures remains unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of November 5 [1] - The European Union's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year is 3.76 million tons, compared to 1.73 million tons last year [2] - The EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year is 8.03 million tons, slightly down from 8.32 million tons last year [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting regarding the autumn sowing in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, which accounts for about 90% of the national wheat production [2] - Continuous rainy weather has delayed sowing and poses challenges for the safe overwintering of winter wheat [2] - The USDA reported that the U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the week ending October 30, 2025, was 350,293 tons, up from a revised 269,420 tons the previous week [2] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year is 11.83 million tons, compared to 9.81 million tons during the same period last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is in a state of multi - air stalemate with a high probability of oscillation. Some arbitrage strategies need to be adjusted according to the market situation, such as exiting some positions and holding or rolling others [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market shows a weakening trend with oscillations. Spiral steel and wire are rising. There are various changes in the ratios and spreads of different commodity futures contracts [4]. Specific Arbitrage Strategies - **Corn and Strong Wheat Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of strong wheat 909 to corn 909 has a narrow - range oscillation. The arbitrage of buying corn 909 and selling strong wheat 909 should be put on hold [4][19]. - **Soybean and Bean Meal Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of soybean 1001 to bean meal 1001 oscillates. The arbitrage of buying soybean 1001 and selling bean meal 1001 should be exited and put on hold [4][7]. - **Soybean Oil and Bean Meal Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The ratio of soybean oil 1001 to bean meal 1001 slightly declines. The arbitrage of buying soybean oil 1001 and selling bean meal 1001 should be exited and put on hold [4][10]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The spread between rapeseed oil 909 and soybean oil 909 continues to rise. The arbitrage of buying rapeseed oil 909 and selling soybean oil 909 should be continued to hold, with a target spread of 450 [4][12]. - **Soybean, Bean Meal, and Soybean Oil Pressing Arbitrage**: The 1 - month pressing profit has a narrow - range oscillation. The arbitrage of buying soybean 1001 and selling soybean oil and bean meal should be exited and put on hold [4][14]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil Arbitrage**: The ratio of 9 - month soybean oil to palm oil continues to rise. The arbitrage of buying 9 - month soybean oil and selling 9 - month palm oil can consider taking profits and waiting for new opportunities [4][18]. - **Soybean Oil Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between soybean oil 1001 and 909 oscillates and slightly expands. Wait for the spread to reach around 100 to build a position for the arbitrage of buying 1001 and selling 909 [4][22]. - **Sugar Arbitrage**: The arbitrage spread of buying sugar 1001 and selling 909 oscillates between 305 - 335. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can be rolled opportunistically with a reduced profit target of 280 [4][25]. - **Soybean Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between soybean 1001 and 909 oscillates. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can take profits and exit [4][28]. - **Bean Meal Inter - period Arbitrage**: The spread between bean meal 1001 and 909 may continue to expand. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can be rolled opportunistically within the range of 200 - 280 [4][30]. Arbitrage Basics - Arbitrage trading involves buying one futures contract and selling another related futures contract simultaneously, including inter - period, cross - variety, and cross - market arbitrage. It aims to profit from the spread or ratio changes between two contracts, with advantages such as lower risk and more predictable spreads [31]. Arbitrage Operation Examples - **Spread Arbitrage**: When the price difference between two contracts is small, operate with the same contract value. For example, in the case of rapeseed oil 905 and soybean oil 905 in 2008 - 2009, a profit was made by buying the stronger contract and selling the weaker one [32]. - **Ratio Arbitrage**: When the price difference between two contracts is large, use the ratio to observe the strength. For example, in the case of strong wheat 905 and corn 905 in 2008, a profit was achieved by buying the stronger contract and selling the weaker one based on the ratio analysis [34]. Operation Modes - **Rolling Operation**: When reaching the target value, partially close the position (can retain part of the position) without reverse operation. Resume the original - direction operation when the target value is reached again [35]. - **Range Operation**: Conduct reverse operations within a predetermined range [36].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the main contract for strong wheat futures remains unchanged, closing at 3050.00 yuan [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has set the total grain import tariff quota for 2026 at 9.636 million tons for wheat, with 90% allocated for state-owned trade quotas [2] - Analysts predict that the global ending stock of wheat for the 2025/26 season will be approximately 266.572 million tons, with estimates ranging from 264.1 to 268 million tons, compared to the USDA's previous estimate of 264.06 million tons in September [2] Group 2 - Iran has reported importing wheat from Caspian Sea countries [3] - As of the week ending October 3, the deliverable inventory of wheat at CBOT was 55.463 million bushels, a decrease of 1.63% from the previous week and a 3.24% decrease from the same period last year [3]

Core Insights - The strong wheat futures contract remains unchanged at 3050.00 yuan as of the latest report [1] Market Insights - As of August 31, the EU's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 season is 2.57 million tons, a decrease of 44% compared to the same period last year [2] - Ukraine's largest agricultural producer alliance, UAC, reports that the country has nearly completed its 2025 wheat harvest, with August wheat exports rising to 1.89 million tons and September exports expected to reach at least 1.7 million tons. The total wheat exports in July were 732,800 tons [2] - Sovecon, a grain consulting company, has raised its forecast for Russia's 2025-2026 wheat exports from 43.3 million tons to 43.7 million tons due to improved crop prospects [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicates that as of August 31, the U.S. spring wheat harvest rate is at 67%, below the market expectation of 70% [2] - The USDA data shows that as of the week ending August 28, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 802,780 tons, revised from the previous week's 1,020,254 tons. The cumulative wheat export inspection volume for the current crop year is 6.64 million tons, compared to 5.80 million tons in the same period last year [2]

Market Overview - Strong wheat futures remained unchanged at 3050.00 CNY as of June 17 [1] - Canadian wheat exports increased by 2.8% to 550,100 tons for the week ending June 8, compared to 535,100 tons the previous week [1] - Total Canadian wheat exports from August 1, 2024, to June 8, 2025, reached 18.993 million tons, a 3.6% increase from 18.3327 million tons in the same period last year [1] Crop Conditions - As of June 15, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. spring wheat was 57%, exceeding market expectations of 54% and up from 53% the previous week, but down from 76% the same time last year [1] - The emergence rate for U.S. spring wheat was 89%, up from 82% the previous week and down from 94% last year [1] - The good-to-excellent rating for U.S. winter wheat was 52%, below market expectations of 54% and unchanged from the previous week, but up from 49% last year [1] Export Data - U.S. wheat export inspections for the week ending June 12, 2025, were 388,752 tons, an increase from the revised 324,207 tons the previous week [2] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspections for the current crop year reached 590,086 tons, down from 708,876 tons in the same period last year [2] Regional Insights - Emater forecasts a 10% decrease in wheat planting area in Rio Grande do Sul for 2025, estimating it at 1.198 million hectares [2] - The average yield for wheat in Rio Grande do Sul is projected to be 3,000 kg per hectare for 2025, up from 2,781 kg per hectare in 2024 [2]