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【国金电新】光伏新技术25Q1跟踪:TOPCon优势进一步强化,金属化工艺变革在即
新兴产业观察者· 2025-04-06 11:12
Investment Logic - The article highlights investment opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, particularly focusing on new technologies. Three main lines of investment are suggested: 1) Leading TOPCon battery companies expected to achieve profit recovery; 2) New technology equipment manufacturers with growth potential; 3) Suppliers of low-silver or silver-free metallization paste solutions [2][3][4]. TOPCon Route - The profitability of battery components is continuously recovering, with leading companies expected to accelerate capacity upgrades. As demand improves, prices in the supply chain have risen, with silicon wafers, batteries, and components increasing by 7%, 13%, and 7% respectively since mid-February [2][6]. - By the end of 2025, the non-silicon cost of leading companies' TOPCon batteries is projected to drop below 0.13 yuan/W, enhancing competitive advantages among top firms [2][22]. XBC Route - The market interest in XBC technology has significantly increased, with an estimated production capacity nearing 50GW and construction capacity close to 45GW. Major companies like Longi and Aiko are leading this development [3][28]. - The price premium for BC components over TOPCon components remains around 0.05 yuan/W, indicating a competitive edge for BC technology [3][38]. HJT Route - The HJT technology is gaining market share, with a total planned capacity exceeding 100GW and actual capacity around 40-45GW. The efficiency of HJT components is expected to improve significantly, with projections of reaching 750W by early 2026 [4][47]. - HJT components are currently priced at a premium of approximately 0.05 yuan/W over TOPCon components, with cost differences narrowing as production scales up [4][55]. Metallization Process - The trend towards low-silver or silver-free solutions is becoming prominent, with silver paste prices rising significantly. The introduction of silver-copper paste is expected to reduce metallization costs by over 0.01 yuan/W [5][58]. - The industry is focusing on reducing silver consumption, with silver-copper paste already being applied in HJT batteries, indicating a shift towards more cost-effective solutions [5][63].