电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 9 月 5 日 301266.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 36.94 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 12.1 7.0 22.2 26.2 相对深圳成指 (11.6) (6.5) (1.9) (24.7) 发行股数 (百万) 109.88 流通股 (百万) 104.24 总市值 (人民币 百万) 4,058.92 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 117.41 主要股东 苏州聚信源企业管理有限公司 51.42% (8%) 11% 30% 49% 68% 87% Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 宇邦新材 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 9 月 3 日收市价为标准 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电力设备：光伏设备 证券分析师：武佳雄 jiaxiong.wu@bocichina.com ...

摘要 光伏行业产能过剩加剧竞争，2024 年全球新增装机约 545GW，而硅 料、硅片、电池片和组件产能均超 1,000GW，导致产业链价格大幅下 行，企业盈利承压。 政策层面，2025 年密集释放反内卷信号，通过提高准入门槛、加强节 能监察等措施优化供给结构，引导行业转向产品力和效率竞争，产业链 价格有所回升。 BC 电池技术凭借其在实验室和量产转化效率上的优势，已高于 Topcon 电池约 1.6%，且差距有扩大趋势，有望成为下一代主流产品。 BC 电池正面无栅线设计，使其在分布式光伏场景中具有高颜值和高效率 优势，尤其适用于光伏建筑一体化，并能降低电阻，提高填充因子。 BC 技术兼容性强，可与 Topcon、异质结等技术叠层搭配，形成如 HBC 等更高效率的电池技术，具备平台化潜力，实现持续升级。 BC 产业化加速，预计 2025 年扩产 50-60GW，头部企业如隆基和爱旭 已率先发力，组件转换效率已达 24.6%-24.8%，并积极获得下游客户 认可。 反内卷加速，持续关注 BC 等光伏新技术 20250903 帝尔激光和拉普拉斯在 BC 环节中扮演关键角色，前者提供激光微刻蚀 设备，后者提供镀膜和 ...

事件：公司25H1 营收64.4 亿元，同比下降4.9%，归母净利润1.8 亿元，同比下降39.6%，毛利率6.9%， 同比下降4pct，归母净利率2.8%，同比下降1.6pct；其中25Q2 营收34.4 亿元，同环比-9.7％/+14.9％，归 母净利润0.9 亿元，同环比-59.2%/+1.5％，毛利率7.4%，同环比-5.6/+1pct，归母净利率2.6%，同环 比-3.2/-0.4pct。 新技术持续突破、贱金属化布局全面：公司BC 浆料出货实现突破，P区浆料在下游客户市占率超50%、 N 区实现突破。公司铜浆已在多个头部客户内部进行测试并实现小规模出货，25H2 将推出二代设备或 有望提升出货。HJT 银包铜浆料20%及以下银含低成本浆料实现大批量量产；新技术整体全面布局。 费用有所提升、经营现金流出：公司25H1 期间费用2.4 亿元，同比下降17.9%，费用率3.7%，同比下降 0.6pct，其中Q2 期间费用1.3 亿元，同环比-25.2%/+12.3%，费用率3.7%，同环比-0.8/-0.1pct；25H1 经 营性净现金流-11 亿元，同比下降108.6%，其中Q2 经营性现金流-9. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to break the "involution" style competition in the photovoltaic sector, advocating for supply-side reforms driven by policy, industry self-discipline, and corporate production cuts [2]. - It highlights a significant increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, with 197.85 GW added from January to May 2025, representing a 150% year-on-year growth [2]. - The report identifies new technologies, particularly BC (Bifacial Cell) and copper paste, as key drivers for future industry growth and cost reduction [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The solar energy index rose by 4.1%, with notable gains from companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd., which saw increases exceeding 10% [2]. - The report discusses the government's increasing focus on addressing low-price disorderly competition, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a recovery in polysilicon prices, with the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon rising to 34,700 CNY/ton, a 0.87% increase week-on-week [2]. - It asserts that the main challenge in the photovoltaic industry is supply rather than demand, with expectations for improved supply conditions due to government guidance and industry self-regulation [2]. Technological Advancements - The report forecasts that leading companies will significantly expand their BC production capacity, with Longi Green Energy expected to reach 50 GW by the end of 2025 [2]. - It highlights the trend towards reducing silver usage in photovoltaic cells, with the silver consumption per watt decreasing from 6 mg/W to 0.5 mg/W, driven by advancements in technologies like XBC, TOPCon, and HJT [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong advantages in new technologies, recommending stocks such as Longi Green Energy, Aiko Solar Energy, and JinkoSolar [2]. - It also advises attention to auxiliary material sectors that benefit from policy improvements and have higher safety margins, recommending companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Sungrow Power Supply [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The overall scale of the industry remains stable, with a decrease in enthusiasm leading to differentiation among companies [12][19]. - Policy expectations are anticipated to strengthen further, driven by public statements from industry leaders [22][23]. - New technologies, particularly BC technology, are gaining attention, while other routes are progressing steadily [26][28]. - Auxiliary materials and equipment are advancing with BC and TOPCon modifications, contributing to efficiency improvements [46][62]. - Inverters are evolving, with a focus on commercial storage solutions and continued iterations in large-scale storage [67][82]. Summary by Sections Overall - The scale of the industry is stable with over 3,500 participating companies and more than 500,000 attendees, showing no significant change from 2024 [19]. - There is a noticeable decrease in overall enthusiasm, with some exhibition spaces left vacant, indicating a divergence in interest between leading and smaller companies [19]. Policy - Industry leaders are actively promoting policy implementation, with initial solutions proposed to address the "internal competition" in the silicon material sector [23]. - The asset-liability ratio in the photovoltaic main industry chain has shown a significant increase, indicating financial pressures [24]. New Technologies - The HIBC technology from Longi has achieved a standard module power of over 700W, while Aiko's ABC modules have a double-sided rate of 80% ± 5% [28]. - The TOPCon route focuses on efficiency improvements, with leading companies showcasing modules with power ratings up to 670W and conversion efficiencies of 24.8% [33]. - HJT technology is also advancing, with Tongwei's HJT module reaching a power output of 790.8W, marking a significant achievement in the sector [41]. Auxiliary Materials & Equipment - Leading manufacturers are launching BC-specific products, including low-weight encapsulation films and high-reflectivity black materials [46]. - The introduction of low-cost metal solutions is becoming a trend, with companies like Jingsilver and Shanghai Silver Paste showcasing their innovations [52]. - Equipment for TOPCon modifications is gaining traction, with edge passivation becoming a mainstream technology [62]. Inverters - The focus on commercial storage products is evident, with new high-power products being prominently displayed at the SNEC exhibition [67]. - The latest large-scale storage solutions, such as the PowerTitan3.0 from Sungrow, feature significant upgrades in capacity and efficiency [82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [9] Core Insights - The photovoltaic sector is currently at a dual bottom in both fundamentals and capital, presenting long-term allocation value and short-term valuation recovery opportunities due to low institutional holdings [2][7] - The supply side is undergoing accelerated clearing, with significant differentiation among companies, as evidenced by financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 [5][34] - The overall industry debt ratio has increased to 72.4% in Q1 2025, up 9.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating substantial financial pressure on companies [5][20] Summary by Sections Financial Reports - The cash pressure on companies is significant, with most main chain companies having a quick ratio of less than 1, indicating that short-term cash reserves are insufficient to cover short-term liabilities [5][16] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the main industry chain was -4.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an improvement from -20.4 billion yuan in the same period last year [5][22] - The industry is experiencing a reduction in personnel, with over 129,000 jobs cut in 2024, reflecting cost-cutting measures amid profitability pressures [28][29] Conclusion - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry will face increased operational pressure in 2025 compared to 2024, with expectations of accelerated supply-side clearing in the second half of the year [34] - The core of profitability recovery lies in the improvement of silicon material supply and demand, driven by market pressures and supportive policies [34][35] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights opportunities for bottom-fishing in the sector, particularly focusing on new technology lines and supply-demand improvement lines [2][7] - It recommends paying attention to companies with strong financial reserves and those that can manage supply constraints effectively [2][7]

Summary of the Conference Call on Photovoltaic Industry Developments in Q1 2025 Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, specifically advancements in solar cell technologies such as TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), and IBC [3][5]. Key Points and Arguments Technological Advancements - Significant progress has been made in PV cell technologies, particularly in TOPCon and heterojunction technologies, with cost and efficiency improvements exceeding expectations [3][5]. - TOPCon efficiency enhancement methods include grid line optimization, back surface thinning, and multi-slicing, with edge passivation showing the most significant effect, expected to improve efficiency by over 0.2% [3][7]. Market Dynamics - The supply side of the PV industry is experiencing capacity restrictions, while the demand side is encouraging high-efficiency products, leading to the elimination of outdated capacities [3][5]. - Prices for silicon materials, wafers, and battery components have increased in Q1 2025, with median price increases of 3%, 20%, 17%, and 4% respectively, driven by production cuts and policy demand [6]. Competitive Landscape - A patent dispute between JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy regarding TOPCon technology is ongoing, which may impact the competitive landscape and technology iteration within the industry [3][8]. - The cost gap between ABC components and other technologies like PERC and TOPCon is narrowing, with ABC components expected to have superior profitability by the end of 2025 [11]. Market Performance of BC Products - The cost-performance ratio of BC products has significantly improved, with existing capacity reaching 49 GW and nearly 45 GW under construction by the end of Q1 2025 [9]. - In recent tenders, BC components have shown a price premium of approximately 0.05 yuan per watt compared to TOPCon components [9]. Silver Paste Price Impact - The price of silver paste has risen above 8,000 yuan per kilogram, which constitutes nearly 50% of the metallization cost for TOPCon cells. Strategies to reduce metallization costs include using silver-coated copper paste and fully replacing it with copper paste systems [13]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - The market is expected to drive the elimination of homogeneous outdated capacities, presenting investment opportunities in new technology-related stocks within the PV sector [14]. - Key investment lines include leading battery and component manufacturers, new technology equipment suppliers, and suppliers of low-silver metallization solutions. Risks include lower-than-expected installation demand, slower-than-expected technology adoption, intensified market competition, and policy changes [14]. Additional Important Content - The efficiency of leading BC technology companies, such as Aiko, LONGi, and Maxon, has reached 24% as of March 2025, surpassing traditional PERC and TOPCon technologies by over 1% [10]. - The HJT technology sector is gaining market share, with a total production capacity of approximately 45 GW as of March 2025, indicating a growing acceptance of HJT products in tenders [12].

Investment Logic - The article highlights investment opportunities in the photovoltaic sector, particularly focusing on new technologies. Three main lines of investment are suggested: 1) Leading TOPCon battery companies expected to achieve profit recovery; 2) New technology equipment manufacturers with growth potential; 3) Suppliers of low-silver or silver-free metallization paste solutions [2][3][4]. TOPCon Route - The profitability of battery components is continuously recovering, with leading companies expected to accelerate capacity upgrades. As demand improves, prices in the supply chain have risen, with silicon wafers, batteries, and components increasing by 7%, 13%, and 7% respectively since mid-February [2][6]. - By the end of 2025, the non-silicon cost of leading companies' TOPCon batteries is projected to drop below 0.13 yuan/W, enhancing competitive advantages among top firms [2][22]. XBC Route - The market interest in XBC technology has significantly increased, with an estimated production capacity nearing 50GW and construction capacity close to 45GW. Major companies like Longi and Aiko are leading this development [3][28]. - The price premium for BC components over TOPCon components remains around 0.05 yuan/W, indicating a competitive edge for BC technology [3][38]. HJT Route - The HJT technology is gaining market share, with a total planned capacity exceeding 100GW and actual capacity around 40-45GW. The efficiency of HJT components is expected to improve significantly, with projections of reaching 750W by early 2026 [4][47]. - HJT components are currently priced at a premium of approximately 0.05 yuan/W over TOPCon components, with cost differences narrowing as production scales up [4][55]. Metallization Process - The trend towards low-silver or silver-free solutions is becoming prominent, with silver paste prices rising significantly. The introduction of silver-copper paste is expected to reduce metallization costs by over 0.01 yuan/W [5][58]. - The industry is focusing on reducing silver consumption, with silver-copper paste already being applied in HJT batteries, indicating a shift towards more cost-effective solutions [5][63].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the electronic chemicals industry or the specific company being analyzed. Core Insights - The company focuses on various types of photoresists and coatings, with a strategic shift towards UV-curable electronic materials and photovoltaic adhesives as key growth areas [20][21] - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of insulation adhesives for photovoltaic BC batteries, with projected revenue growth driven by the anticipated increase in BC battery production [22][24] - The PCB photoresist segment remains a stable revenue source, benefiting from the growth in the electronics industry, particularly due to AI advancements [26][28] Summary by Sections 01 Basic Research Information - The research was conducted on March 12, 2025, focusing on the electronic chemicals industry, specifically the company Guangxin Materials [13]. 02 Detailed Research Institutions - Various investment institutions participated in the research, including Qianhai Zhongchuan Fund, Beiqi Industrial Investment, and Chongqing Environmental Fund, among others [14][15]. 04 Main Content Information - The company’s main products include PCB photoresists and coatings, with a focus on developing new applications in photovoltaic technology and environmentally friendly coatings [20][21]. - The company reported approximately 400 million in revenue from electronic materials, with a significant portion coming from PCB photoresists and 3C coatings [21]. - The photovoltaic adhesive market is expected to grow significantly, with the company recording around 50 million in revenue from photovoltaic insulation adhesives, positioning it as a leading supplier in the industry [22][24]. - The PCB industry is projected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of 3.8% from 2024 to 2027, driven by demand from various sectors including AI and consumer electronics [27][28]. - The company is optimizing its operations by consolidating production facilities and enhancing R&D capabilities, which has led to improved efficiency and reduced operational costs [29][30]. - In the industrial heavy-duty anti-corrosion coatings sector, the company is developing high-performance products using graphene technology, targeting large enterprises for market penetration [31][33].