（原标题：沈文忠：晶硅电池技术仍有很长的生命周期） 21世纪经济报道记者 曹恩惠、实习生余名伟 成都报道 11月19日，由南方财经全媒体集团指导、21世纪经济报道主办、中国国际光伏与储能产业大会组委会支 持的2025第八届中国国际光伏与储能产业大会暨21世纪·新能新质绿色能源发展论坛在成都隆重召开。 最后，提及钙钛矿技术，沈文忠认为单结钙钛矿是没有竞争力的，与晶硅电池叠层是必由之路。 沈文忠进一步围绕晶硅技术的不可替代性、非银金属化突破方向，以及TOPCon、BC、异质结三大主流 电池技术的竞争与协同，为"十五五"及更长周期光伏产业技术方向的发展提供了思考路径。 沈文忠指出："晶硅的优势是非常明显的，未来十年，乃至更长时间内，我们看不到比晶硅更好的技 术。" 目前，光伏若要继续维持成本优势，需要进一步聚焦晶硅技术的优化。沈文忠介绍，目前，我国已全面 掌握硅提纯技术，硅料产能超300万吨，目前晶硅电池市场占比98%，是维持光伏低价的核心技术载 体。"但在当前晶硅电池成本中，银金属化占比极高，银价直接影响光伏的成本优势，所以未来五年一 定是无银化、贱金属化，金属化的铜、铝、镍等是一个发展趋势。" 沈文忠特别指出， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth and stability in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, with significant increases in production and demand forecasts for batteries and solar components in China and globally [1][2][3][4]. Production Summary - In November 2025, China's production of power, storage, and consumer batteries is projected to reach 209 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 64.6%, with energy storage cells accounting for approximately 33.6% of the total [1]. - Global production for the same category is expected to be 228 GWh, with a month-on-month growth of 11.2% [1]. - Domestic photovoltaic module production is forecasted to be below 44.5 GW in November, with potential for recovery in production levels if prices rebound [1]. Price Summary - In October 2025, the average bid price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems ranged from 0.43 to 0.7487 CNY/Wh, with an average of 0.5547 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 10% increase month-on-month [2]. - The average price for 4-hour lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems increased by 23.23% month-on-month, while the 2-hour systems saw a decrease of 5.5% [2]. - The price of polysilicon dense material was reported at 52.00 CNY/kg, with a decline in the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers [2]. Demand Summary - In September 2025, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.7 GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 53.8% [3]. - The cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity from January to September 2025 reached 240.27 GW, a year-on-year increase of 49.3% [3]. - In September 2025, the export value of photovoltaic components was 2.8 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 39.0% [3]. Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration issued guidelines on promoting the integrated development of renewable energy on November 12, 2025 [4]. - The World Power Battery Conference was held in Yibin, Sichuan, on November 12-13, 2025 [4]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Haibo Si Chuang and CATL to deepen collaboration in the energy storage sector [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on photovoltaic and energy storage-related companies, highlighting significant growth in installed capacity and export values [4]. Recommended companies include: - Sunshine Power (300274.SZ) - Nandu Power (300068.SZ) - Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ) - Huashengchang (002980.SZ) - Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [4].

"光伏行业肯定要淘汰一定的落后产能，在组件、电池端，主要参考指标是同样版型上的功率。"上海交 通大学教授、上海交通大学太阳能研究所所长沈文忠于11月18日在第八届中国国际光伏与储能产业大会 上接受经济观察报等媒体采访时表示。 "光伏组件、电池企业，尤其是TOPCon企业，面临着在未来一到两年内，是满足标准还是被淘汰的问 题。"沈文忠说。 TOPCon产能是光伏行业最为过剩的产能。目前全行业内有800GW（吉瓦）—1000GW产能，全年需求 约400GW。 沈文忠明确表示，未来将淘汰一半的TOPCon产能。 "一年多以来，光伏行业的技术创新非常多，目的就是为了提升功率，提升光电转换效率。"沈文忠说。 功率是光伏电池和组件的重要参数，一般而言，功率越高，光伏板发电量越多。 沈文忠表示，相关部门正在制定光伏组件标准，按照功率大小分为三个等级，划定的等级将成为国央企 招投标采购的重要标准。 今年9月11日，国家市场监督管理总局、国家标准化管理委员会发布《晶硅光伏组件和逆变器能效限定 值及能效等级（征求意见稿）》，其中规定拟将光伏组件按照技术路线分为TOPCon（隧穿氧化层钝化 接触电池）、BC（背接触电池）和HJT（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed weakness with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, while the consumer sector, particularly food and beverage, demonstrated strength, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76 points, down 0.39%, with the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index falling by 1.03% and 1.40%, respectively [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 20,139 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,805 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Consumer Sector Activity - The consumer sector, especially food and beverage, saw significant gains, with companies like Huanlejia hitting a 20% limit up for two consecutive days [3]. - Financial reports indicate that the food and beverage sector is at a bottoming phase, with expectations for improvement in demand due to potential consumption policies [3]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Sector - The renewable energy sector, particularly solar energy stocks, led the market with companies like Zhonglai Co. and DeLong Laser achieving a 20% limit up [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration's recent guidelines aim to enhance new energy consumption and storage, projecting a significant increase in lithium battery shipments by 2025 [2]. Group 4: Institutional Recommendations - Analysts suggest maintaining a balanced portfolio, with expectations of continued support from macro policies and resilient corporate fundamentals [4]. - The market is anticipated to experience a structural rally driven by "new energy + policy themes," particularly benefiting solar equipment manufacturers [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Recommendations include focusing on technology growth sectors, cyclical commodities, domestic consumption, and dividend stocks, while being cautious of high valuations in tech stocks [5].

11月11日消息，截止10:15，TOPCon电池板块大涨，中来股份、协鑫集成、金辰股份涨停，亿晶光电、 京山轻机等个股涨幅居前。 责任编辑：小浪快报 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continue to fluctuate, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 4000 points and the ChiNext Index around 1400 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and North Star 50 show slight declines [1] - The number of rising stocks exceeds those that are falling, and trading volume is increasing [1] Sector Performance - The hotel and catering, phosphorus concept, photovoltaic, and general retail sectors are leading in gains, while consumer electronics, engineering machinery, marine equipment, and communication equipment sectors are experiencing declines [1] Agricultural Chemical Industry Growth - The agricultural chemical sector is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the phosphorus concept, which saw a significant increase of over 4%, reaching a four-year high [3] - Wind data indicates that the basic chemical industry is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 2.6% and a net profit growth of 9.4% year-on-year by Q3 2025 [5] - Notable profit increases in sub-sectors include pesticides (201%), fluorochemicals (124.6%), and potassium fertilizers (62.2%) [5] Potassium Chloride Price Trends - In Q3, 60% of potassium chloride import prices fluctuated around 3200 RMB/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 200 RMB/ton and a year-on-year increase of about 750 RMB/ton [6] Phosphate Fertilizer Companies Performance - Major potassium fertilizer companies, such as Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yaqi International, reported significant profit growth in their Q3 reports due to sustained high potassium chloride prices [7] - Phosphate fertilizer companies, particularly those with cost advantages in upstream phosphate rock resources, also showed strong performance, with Yun Tianhua reporting a net profit of 4.729 billion RMB in the first three quarters [7] Photovoltaic Sector Developments - The photovoltaic sector is witnessing a collective rise, with the index reaching a historical high, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and consolidating production capacity [8][10] - The price of mainstream photovoltaic components is currently between 0.60 and 0.77 RMB/watt, with significant rebounds in multi-crystalline silicon prices exceeding 70% from their lows [11] - The International Energy Agency projects that by the end of 2030, renewable energy will become the largest source of electricity globally, with photovoltaic power surpassing hydropower [11]

Group 1 - The TOPCon solar panel sector leads the market with an increase of 3.85% [1] - Canadian Solar (阿特斯) saw a significant rise of 18.33% [1] - Trina Solar (天合光能) experienced a growth of 9.02% [1] Group 2 - East Hope (东方日升) reported an increase of 7.0% [1] - Jingshan Light Machinery (京山轻机) and Junda Co. (钧达股份) both rose over 5% [1] - ST Yunwang (*ST云网) also saw a rise exceeding 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high and surpassing the 4000-point mark, indicating robust investor sentiment and market momentum [1][2]. Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 surged by 8.41%, marking its largest single-day increase in nearly six months, while the ChiNext Index rose nearly 3%, closing above 3300 points for the first time in four years [1][2]. - The total market turnover increased to 2.29 trillion yuan, reflecting heightened trading activity [1]. Sector Performance - Key sectors that performed well include photovoltaic equipment, Hainan, consumer electronics, and industrial metals, while banking, dispersed dyes, environmental monitoring, and ground weaponry sectors saw declines [2]. - The power equipment industry attracted over 34.9 billion yuan in net inflows, with non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials also receiving significant investments [3]. Investment Trends - The recent "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of emerging pillar industries and innovation in sectors such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and sixth-generation mobile communication, which are expected to drive future economic growth [8]. - The photovoltaic sector experienced a notable rally, with the photovoltaic equipment index soaring by 8.11%, and major companies like Tongwei Co. and Longi Green Energy hitting their upper limits [8][11]. Company Highlights - Yangguang Electric Power reported a revenue of 66.4 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 32.95%, with net profit rising by 56.34% to 11.9 billion yuan [11]. - TCL Zhonghuan, which had been experiencing losses for eight consecutive quarters, reported a significant reduction in its loss margin compared to the same period last year [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic industry's competitive landscape is expected to improve due to recent measures aimed at reducing internal competition, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery [11]. - Companies in the photovoltaic sector, particularly those involved in storage inverters, BC and perovskite batteries, and polysilicon materials, are recommended for investment focus [11].

Group 1 - The TOPCon battery sector leads the market with an increase of 4.83% [1] - Canadian Solar (阿特斯) saw a significant rise of 19.97% [1] - Trina Solar (天合光能) experienced an increase of 9.68% [1] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) rose by 8.36% [1] - JinkoSolar (晶科能源), Fuda Alloy (福达合金), and TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) all saw increases of over 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy has announced the termination of its planned private placement after nearly three years of planning, shifting its focus from capacity expansion to high-quality development driven by technology and innovation [3][12]. Group 1: Termination of Private Placement - On October 24, GCL-Poly Energy announced the termination of its private placement plan, which aimed to raise up to 6 billion yuan for various projects [3][5]. - The initial plan included issuing up to 1.755 billion shares, with 3.4 billion yuan allocated for a high-efficiency battery manufacturing project and 800 million yuan for a smart energy storage system [5][8]. - The private placement faced multiple revisions, totaling seven, over the three-year period, ultimately leading to its failure [7][11]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategic Shift - The decision to terminate the private placement was influenced by the structural oversupply in the photovoltaic industry and the overall pressure on business operations [3][14]. - GCL-Poly Energy plans to shift its operational focus from horizontal capacity expansion to vertical quality enhancement, emphasizing technological advancement and innovation [12][13]. - The company aims to strengthen its core competitiveness and improve profitability while achieving a more stable financial condition and operational cash flow [13][14]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, GCL-Poly Energy reported a net loss of 327 million yuan, a significant decline compared to the previous year [14]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 7.694 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.16% [14]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to an imbalance in supply and demand within the industry, leading to lower component prices and reduced gross margins [14]. Group 4: Research and Development Investment - GCL-Poly Energy's R&D investment was notably low, with 210 million yuan in 2024, accounting for only 1.29% of its revenue [16]. - In the first half of 2025, R&D spending dropped to 104 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's 161 million yuan [16].