近日，晶科能源、通威股份、隆基绿能等多家光伏头部企业纷纷发布2025年业绩预告，晶科能源预计 2025年归母净利润亏损59亿元至69亿元，通威股份预计亏损90亿元至100亿元，隆基绿能预计归属于上 市公司股东的净亏损为60亿元到65亿元。 在谈到预亏的原因时，多家公司均提到了白银价格上涨对业绩的影响。隆基绿能在公告中指出，四季度 银浆、硅料成本大幅上涨，显著推升了硅片、电池及组件产品成本。通威股份在谈到亏损原因时也提 到"白银等部分核心原材料价格持续上涨"。 夏日进一步解释称，"一方面，尽管受到'反内卷'等行业约束，但光伏制造端供应能力仍在持续扩张;另 一方面，下游需求趋向萎缩态势，国内市场需求持续减弱，海外市场的采购需求也有所回落。未来，受 到地缘政治等因素影响，下游国内外需求大概率进一步减弱。" 成本转移面临下游制约，少用甚至不用银成为企业降低成本的重要路径。隆基绿能披露，目前高效BC 二代产品已实现规模化量产，贱金属替代银浆技术完成中试。爱旭股份也在推动铜电镀无银金属化方案 并已应用于珠海10GW(吉瓦)级量产线。通威、晶科、晶澳等企业，也在推动"银包铜"技术。 以白银作为原材料的银浆是制造光伏电池的重 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major photovoltaic companies such as JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., and LONGi Green Energy have issued profit warnings for 2025, citing significant losses primarily due to rising silver prices impacting their production costs [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Forecasts - JinkoSolar expects a net loss of 5.9 billion to 6.9 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Tongwei Co. anticipates losses between 9 billion to 10 billion yuan [1] - LONGi Green Energy projects a net loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan attributable to increased costs of silver paste and silicon materials [1] Group 2: Cost Drivers - The surge in silver prices has been a critical factor, with current spot silver prices exceeding $100 per ounce, having more than tripled over the past year [2] - The cost of silver paste, a key material in photovoltaic cell production, is projected to reach 0.138 yuan/W by the end of 2025, accounting for approximately 62% of the non-silicon costs in TOPCon solar cells [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, limiting the ability of companies to pass on increased costs to consumers [3] - Domestic market demand is declining, and overseas procurement is also slowing down, which may further weaken future demand [3] Group 4: Technological Developments - Companies are exploring alternatives to reduce silver usage, such as the development of "silver-free" technologies and the use of copper plating [3][4] - LONGi Green Energy has achieved mass production of its high-efficiency BC second-generation products, which utilize less silver [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The maturity of alternative technologies and potential declines in photovoltaic installation volumes may exert downward pressure on silver prices in the long term [4] - Silver's strategic resource status is expected to strengthen, potentially driving prices higher due to policy influences [4]