Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transition from silver paste to copper paste in photovoltaic cells as a significant trend for cost reduction in the industry. The rising silver prices and the competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector are driving this shift towards cheaper metal alternatives [55][56]. - The report anticipates that the introduction of copper paste will occur between 2025 and 2026, with rapid penetration expected from 2027 to 2028. By 2030, the demand for copper paste is projected to reach approximately 6,000 tons, while the demand for silver paste is expected to decrease to around 3,000 tons [42][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Role and Principle of Copper Paste - Metalization is a crucial process in photovoltaic cell production, impacting efficiency, cost, and reliability. The main goal is to reduce costs and improve efficiency through various metalization techniques [14][15]. - The transition from silver to copper is driven by the need to lower costs, as copper has a similar conductivity to silver but is significantly cheaper [22]. 2. Impact of Copper Paste on Cost Reduction - The report indicates that metalization costs are becoming a larger portion of the total battery cost, reaching approximately 30%. This makes it a primary target for cost reduction efforts [31]. - The copper alternative can significantly lower metalization costs compared to silver paste, with projections showing substantial savings in both TOPCON and BC cell applications [35][40]. 3. Industrialization Challenges and Solutions for Copper Paste - The report discusses the challenges of copper oxidation and migration during the manufacturing process, which can affect the performance of photovoltaic cells. Solutions include protective coatings and the use of seed layers to prevent copper diffusion into silicon [23][27]. - The anticipated industrialization of copper paste is expected to enhance profitability for paste manufacturers, as the shift to copper will likely increase processing fees compared to traditional silver paste [45]. 4. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The transition to copper paste is expected to alter the competitive landscape among paste manufacturers, with companies needing to invest in new technologies and processes to maintain their market positions [49]. - The report notes that companies are already beginning to develop copper powder capabilities to enhance their competitiveness in the copper paste market [51].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a strong rebound driven by national policies and improved industry fundamentals, with significant stock price increases among leading companies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Jiejia Weichuang surged by 20%, while Shuangliang Energy also hit the daily limit, indicating a robust market sentiment [1] - The overall photovoltaic installed capacity in China exceeded 1.1 billion kilowatts by the end of June, marking a year-on-year growth of 54.1% [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan for the third batch of old-for-new funds, with a total of 300 billion yuan planned for the year, emphasizing the importance of photovoltaic equipment updates [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy has reached a national strategic level, signaling a formal recovery in profitability across the photovoltaic industry chain [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The photovoltaic equipment manufacturing sector is expected to see a market scale breakthrough due to technological iterations, with N-type battery technologies like TOPCon and HJT achieving over 40% penetration [2] - The price recovery of polysilicon and auxiliary materials is anticipated to enhance profitability, with leading companies accelerating the integration of smaller capacities [2] - The old-for-new policy is expected to activate a trillion-yuan market, prompting logistics companies to enhance their renewable energy logistics networks [2] Group 4: Investment Trends - There is a surge in funds flowing into the photovoltaic sector, with institutional holdings in leading companies on the rise as investors seek exposure through index products [2]

Market Performance - On the first trading day of August, the pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with traditional Chinese medicine stocks surging, including companies like Weikang Pharmaceutical and Xintian Pharmaceutical reaching their daily limit [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.15%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.16%, while sectors like photovoltaic, logistics, paper, and automotive saw gains [2] Photovoltaic Sector - Photovoltaic concept stocks rebounded, with significant increases in the photovoltaic equipment sector, including companies like Jiejia Weichuang and Haiyou New Materials [5] - Jiejia Weichuang announced a mid-year earnings forecast, expecting a net profit of 1.7 billion to 1.96 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.65% to 59.85% [6] - The increase in silicon wafer prices continued, with average prices rising approximately 0.1 yuan per piece, driven by rising raw material costs and increased downstream orders [7] Logistics Sector - The logistics sector experienced an uptick, with companies like Huapengfei, Shentong Express, and Yunda Holdings seeing significant stock price increases [9] - Shentong Express has seen a cumulative increase of over 52% since its rebound on July 10 [9] - The State Post Bureau held a meeting to address "involution" competition in the express delivery industry, promoting high-quality development [9] - The integration of the domestic express delivery industry is accelerating, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Zhejiang Dan Niao Logistics for 362 million yuan [9] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is entering a phase of large-scale commercial use, with major players like SF Express and Zhongtong expected to introduce thousands of vehicles this year [10]

Group 1: Market Performance - Pharmaceutical stocks showed strong performance on the first trading day of August, with significant gains across various sectors including traditional Chinese medicine, animal vaccines, and innovative drugs [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also experienced slight declines of 0.15% and 0.16% respectively [1] - Solar energy stocks rebounded, with Jiejia Weichuang (300724) hitting a 20% limit-up within just 6 minutes of trading [2] Group 2: Company Developments - Meituan announced its commitment to regulate promotional activities and eliminate unfair competition in the food delivery sector, aiming to foster a healthy industry ecosystem [2] - Jiejia Weichuang projected a net profit of 1.7 billion to 1.96 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.65% to 59.85% [4] - The logistics sector saw significant stock price increases, with companies like Shentong Express and Yunda Holdings experiencing notable gains [6][7] Group 3: Industry Trends - The price of silicon wafers continued to rise, with average prices increasing by approximately 0.1 yuan per piece, driven by higher raw material costs and increased downstream orders [5] - The BC battery segment is gaining attention from multiple institutions, indicating a positive outlook for this sub-sector within the solar industry [5] - The express delivery industry is undergoing consolidation, with Shentong Express acquiring Zhejiang Dan Niao Logistics for 362 million yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "positive," indicating a relative performance stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [33]. Core Insights - The global silver market has entered a new phase of structural supply-demand gap expansion, with signs of a rightward shift in the demand curve [1]. - Industrial demand is the primary component of silver demand, accounting for 58.5% of the total demand in 2024, with a total global silver demand projected at 36,207 tons [1][2]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global silver demand from 2019 to 2024 is 3%, with industrial silver demand growing at a CAGR of 5.4% during the same period [2]. - The electronic and electrical sectors are the main drivers of industrial silver demand, with the photovoltaic industry being a significant contributor [3][5]. Summary by Sections Silver Demand Composition - In 2024, silver demand is composed of industrial demand (21,165 tons, 58.5%), jewelry (6,491 tons, 17.9%), and physical investment (5,939 tons, 16.4%) [1]. - The demand from the silverware and photography sectors is relatively minor, at 1,684 tons (4.7%) and 792 tons (2.2%) respectively [1]. Industrial Silver Demand Growth - From 2019 to 2024, industrial silver demand increased from 16,281 tons to 21,165 tons, contributing 98% to the total growth in silver demand during this period [2]. - The electronic and electrical sector's silver demand is projected to reach 14,323 tons in 2024, accounting for 67.7% of industrial silver demand [3]. Photovoltaic Industry Impact - The shift from P-type to N-type solar cells is expected to increase silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector, with N-type cells requiring significantly more silver per gigawatt [6]. - The projected silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector for 2025-2027 is expected to grow steadily, reaching 6,552 tons, 7,128 tons, and 7,500 tons respectively [6]. Automotive Sector Contribution - The growth of the new energy vehicle sector is anticipated to further drive silver demand, with projected consumption in the automotive sector reaching 2,566 tons, 2,799 tons, and 2,926 tons from 2025 to 2027 [7]. Overall Silver Demand Forecast - The global silver demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2027, reaching 39,457 tons by 2027, with industrial demand's share increasing from 58.5% to 59.7% [9]. - The supply-demand gap for silver is projected to widen, with supply growth expected to lag behind demand growth, leading to a tightening market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing intensified bullish and bearish forces due to ongoing global trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Tensions - The U.S. has increased tariff demands on the EU, prompting the EU to prepare for a third round of countermeasures [1]. - Thailand has introduced a strategy to exempt 90% of U.S. goods from tariffs, while Brazil's President Lula stated he would not yield to U.S. tariff pressures [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials have differing views on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a 25 basis point cut in July, while others believe a short-term cut is challenging [1][2]. - Economic data shows a rise in U.S. retail sales by 0.6% in June, which diminishes the urgency for rate cuts [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. government's "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio above 124% [2]. - The core CPI for June rose to 2.9% year-on-year, while the overall CPI reached 2.7%, indicating persistent inflation that may suppress rate cut expectations [2]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver prices have shown stronger upward momentum compared to gold, with New York silver prices surpassing $39.5 per ounce, marking a historical high [3]. - Industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to support silver prices, with a projected increase in silver demand of approximately 2,000 tons per year due to expanding solar installations [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The liquidity tightening has provided upward momentum for silver prices, with ETF holdings reaching a historical high of 1.13 billion ounces [4]. - Short-term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, with key support levels for gold at $3,300 per ounce and for silver at $37 per ounce [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that the acceleration of de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases will systematically elevate gold price levels [4].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to a historical peak of $39 per ounce, marking the highest level since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of over 35% as of July 14, 2025, compared to gold's 27% increase [2][3] - Retail demand for silver products has seen a significant increase, with sales of silver bars and coins rising by 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong market interest [4] - The gold-silver ratio has rapidly corrected, dropping from over 100 in April-May to around 87, suggesting that silver was previously undervalued and has potential for further gains [4] Group 2 - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is the largest driver of silver demand, with global PV installations expected to exceed 600 GW in 2024, leading to a substantial increase in silver consumption [5] - Semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors are also contributing to silver demand, with the latter showing a 21% to 71% increase in silver usage per vehicle compared to traditional cars [5] - Global silver demand is projected at approximately 36,700 tons in 2024, while supply is only around 31,700 tons, resulting in a supply deficit of 5,000 tons, which is expected to widen in 2025 [5] Group 3 - Investment banks are divided in their outlook for silver, with some raising price forecasts while others warn of a potential end to the current bullish trend due to signs of reduced investment demand [6] - Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with potential price targets of $40 and $50 if key resistance levels are broken [6] - The industrial demand for silver has risen to 70% of total demand, indicating a shift from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset to a growth asset driven by technological advancements [8] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a critical variable for silver prices, with expectations of interest rate cuts potentially boosting silver prices further [8] - The volatility of silver prices is a concern, with historical data showing that silver's volatility is about 1.5 times that of gold, necessitating risk management strategies for investors [9] - The ongoing industrial revolution in silver is reshaping the precious metals market, with increasing ETF holdings and a return to historical gold-silver ratio averages indicating a potential revaluation driven by green energy [10]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme has gained significant attention in the A-share market, with sectors such as steel, photovoltaic, and building materials experiencing substantial growth in recent weeks [1][2][6]. Market Performance - Over the past 18 trading days (from June 20 to July 15), the steel, building materials, and power equipment sectors have all seen increases exceeding 8% [1]. - The photovoltaic equipment index has risen by 15.55% during the same period [4]. - Specific sector performances include: components up 20.35%, glass and fiberglass up 20.21%, photovoltaic equipment up 15.55%, and ordinary steel up 12.75% [5]. Policy Influence - The "anti-involution" theme is driven by recent policy discussions, particularly the emphasis on reducing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [2][6]. - The central government's focus on building a unified national market and addressing key challenges has catalyzed this market trend [2]. Industry Focus - Key industries benefiting from the "anti-involution" theme include traditional sectors like steel and cement, as well as emerging industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [6][7]. - The current "anti-involution" policies are primarily concentrated on four major sectors: photovoltaics, e-commerce, automobiles, and steel [7]. Investment Opportunities - Investment institutions are increasingly allocating resources to sectors involved in the "anti-involution" theme, particularly those with historically low valuations and significant recovery potential [8][9]. - Analysts suggest focusing on industries with low valuations and potential for improved competitive dynamics, such as upstream photovoltaic, real estate, and livestock sectors [9][10]. Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" market is expected to unfold in three phases: the current expectation phase driven by policy, a subsequent phase of rising resource prices, and finally a phase where high prices stabilize [1][11]. - The market may not follow a straightforward three-phase pattern, as past experiences suggest that price reactions could occur earlier and more concentrated in leading stocks [11].

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the urgent need for cost reduction in photovoltaic conductive pastes due to rising silver consumption and increasing silver prices, with new types of pastes expected to capture significant market share by 2030 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Photovoltaic conductive pastes are crucial for the metallization of solar cells, directly affecting their efficiency and output power, with silver paste currently dominating the market [2] - Silver paste accounts for 27% of the total cost of photovoltaic cells, with silver constituting over 97% of the paste's cost, making it the highest non-silicon cost component [2] - The shift from P-type to N-type cell technology, particularly with the application of LECO processes, has increased the unit consumption of silver paste, further driving up demand [2] Group 2: Cost Reduction Strategies - Cost reduction strategies for conductive pastes are categorized into process silver reduction and material silver reduction, with the former involving new grid line designs and printing process optimizations [3] - New grid line designs like 0BB and multi-busbar can significantly reduce silver paste consumption, while advanced printing techniques can lower consumption by 20-40% [3] - Despite these advancements, traditional screen printing remains the dominant method, holding over 98% market share [3] Group 3: Material Substitution - The substitution of cheaper metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel for silver is a key direction for cost reduction in photovoltaic cell metallization [4] - Copper, being the second-best conductor after silver and costing only 1% of silver, is the primary choice for substitution, with various technologies like silver-coated copper and electroplated copper being explored [4] - The commercialization of high copper/pure copper pastes is expected to accelerate, with projections for mass production by Q4 2025 [4] Group 4: Industry Landscape - The photovoltaic conductive paste market is characterized by a "two strong" supply structure, with Daqo New Energy and JinkoSolar leading the global silver paste supply, holding 27.1% and 26.9% market shares respectively [5] - The demand for silver-coated copper pastes is projected to reach 1,166 tons by 2030, corresponding to a market space exceeding 3.5 billion [5] - The market for copper pastes is expected to reach 13.76 billion by 2030, indicating a significant growth opportunity with a projected CAGR of approximately 60% from 2025 to 2030 [5]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the critical role of conductive pastes in the metallization process of photovoltaic cells, which directly impacts cell performance [1] - Currently, silver paste is the mainstream choice for conductive pastes, but there is an urgent need to reduce costs due to rising single consumption of silver paste in N-type technology and increasing silver prices [1] - The industrialization of new types of photovoltaic pastes, represented by silver-coated copper, electroplated copper, and high copper/pure copper pastes, is accelerating [1] - It is projected that by 2030, the market space for new types of pastes will exceed 15 billion yuan, corresponding to a CAGR of approximately 60% [1] - Copper pastes are expected to achieve mass production by Q4 2025, and the recommendation is to focus on leading companies with advanced technology and scale [1]