经营分析 业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 25 日，公司发布 2025 年半年报业绩。2025 上半年公 司实现营业收入 36.6 亿元，同比-42.5%；实现归母净利润-2.6 亿 元，同比-58.5%；其中二季度实现营业收入 17.9 亿元，实现归母 净利润-1.6 亿元，业绩符合预期。 "反内卷"提升至国家战略行动高度，电池价格向覆盖成本的方 向回暖：二季度随着分布式抢装接近尾声，183N 电池片价格快速 下滑至 0.24 元/W，跌幅达 23%；与此同时沪银价格不断攀升，带 动银浆价格上涨至 8500 元/kg 以上，在价格及成本的双向挤压下， 公司 Q2 盈利承压。然而下半年来看，供给侧改革及"反内卷"政 策持续升级，2025 年 7 月，中央财经委员会提出"依法依规治理 企业低价无序竞争、引导企业提升产品品质、推动落后产能有序退 出"的治理方向，国家发展改革委、市场监督总局研究起草《价格 法修正草案》将低于成本价销售的行为定性为违法，行业内各企业 积极响应，截至 2025 年 8 月 20 日 Infolink 最新价格，183N 电池 片价格已修复至 0.29 元/W，并且随着各环节产能整合与价 ...

事件描述 横店东磁发布2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现收入119.36 亿元，同比增长24.75%；归母净利10.2 亿 元，同比增长58.94%；其中，2025Q2 实现收入67.13 亿元，同比增长25.87%，环比增长28.55%；归母 净利5.62 亿元，同比增长94.8%，环比增长22.69%。 事件评论 磁材业务，2025H1 出货10.73 万吨，出货结构更加优化，毛利率27.71%，同比增长1.22pct，公司龙头 地位稳固，市占率进一步提升，已布局多个磁材新品，铜片电感、EMC滤波器件等市场拓展成效显 著。拆分至Q2，预计出货环比持平，销售均价环比提升，主要是预烧料占比降低。 锂电业务，2025H1 出货超3 亿支，同比增长12.25%，毛利率12.90%，同比增长2.06pct，主要是通过产 品迭代、品质管控，制造成本明显优化。公司稼动率维持行业领先，推出多款高容量的E 型和P 型新产 品，并完成了全极耳的技术储备。 其他财务指标，2025H1 期间费用率2.99%，同比下降5.13pct，其中财务费用降低主要是汇兑损益波动 所致，研发费用降低主要是研发项目数量、进展、支出计划不 ...

证券研究报告 Q2 环比减亏，关注反内卷进展 通威股份 (600438 CH) 25Q2 公司毛利率 2.0%，环比+4.9pct，主要系国内光伏抢装驱动电池组件 价格提升，叠加公司加强内部管理，期间费用率大幅降低，25Q2 期间费用 率 为 8.5%， 环 比 下 降 5.0pct ，其中销售 /管 理 /财务费用率分别为 2.0/2.5/2.8%，环比下降 0.5/2.8/1.5pct。公司在手资金充沛，截至 25H1 末， 公司货币资金与交易性金融资产合计约 332 亿元；并储备丰富融资工具， 子公司永祥股份引入战略投资者增资扩股以偿还银行贷款并补充流动资金。 硅料龙头地位稳固，技术持续优化 25H1 公司硅料实现销量 16.13 万吨，全球市占率约 30%，位居行业第一。 公司硅料产品品质及成本继续保持领先水平，N 型出货比例达 90%以上， 硅耗降至 1.04kg/kg.si 以内，蒸汽基本实现零消耗，产品质量进一步提升， N 型料体金属降至 0.1ppbw 以内，表金属降低至 0.2ppbw 以内。 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 电源设备 通威股份发布半年报，2025H1 实现营收 4 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 08 月 20 日 7 月社零同比增幅收窄，金属切削机床产量同比增幅扩大 ——行业景气观察（0820） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在部分中游制造、信息技术和金融地产领域。上游资 源品中，水泥价格上涨；中游制造领域，7 月主要企业工程机械销售当月同比多 数改善，金属切削机床、包装专用设备产量同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，7 月集 成电路进、出口金额同比增幅扩大，智能手机产量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消 费服务领域，空冰洗彩零售额四周滚动同比转负。7 月社会消费品零售总额当月 同比增幅收窄，家电、家具、通讯器材零售维持较高增长。推荐景气较高或有改 善的建材、工程机械、通用设备、光伏、半导体、非银等。 ❑【本周关注】7 月社会消费品零售总额当月同比增幅收窄，低于市场预期，扩消 费政策效应仍在，家电、家具、通讯器材零售维持较高增长。具体来看：1）一线 城市仍是社零修复的主要拖累，消费驱动力在三线和五线城市；2）必选消费表现 分化，粮油食品类需求刚性，稳健增长，饮料、烟酒同比转正，服装纺织同比放 缓；3）"以旧换新"政策提振作用仍在，家电、家具、通讯器材维持较高增长， 仍是拉动 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The western region of China, particularly Shaanxi, is undergoing rapid transformation and upgrading, serving as a model for the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the planning of the 15th Five-Year Plan [3]. Group 1: Economic Development - Shaanxi is enhancing its open economic structure, effectively connecting with global markets despite being an inland province [5][7]. - The province is transitioning from an "economic corridor" to a "corridor economy," increasing its role as a logistics hub for goods from East, South, and North China [7]. Group 2: Technological Advancement - Shaanxi is improving the efficiency of technology transfer and attracting global innovation resources, significantly promoting the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic cells [9]. - The province's focus on digitalization and intelligence is leading to the upgrading of traditional industries, strengthening the economic foundation of the western region [10]. Group 3: Institutional Innovation - The China (Shaanxi) Pilot Free Trade Zone is a core vehicle for institutional opening, addressing the challenges of inland openness through innovative regulations [11]. - The introduction of the "Strategic Action Plan for Enhancing the China (Shaanxi) Pilot Free Trade Zone (2024-2027)" aims to build a robust open system and provide replicable experiences for inland regions to participate in the global value chain [11].

Core Insights - InfoLink has released a new ranking for leading companies in the photovoltaic battery and module sectors, showing slight changes compared to the previous year, with no new entrants in the top ranks for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Battery Segment Summary - The top five battery manufacturers remain unchanged in terms of participants, with slight positional shifts: Tongwei Co., Ltd. retains the top position, while Yingfa Renergy moves from fourth to third, swapping places with Jietai Technology [2]. - Yingfa Renergy's N-type battery shipments reached the top two globally in the first half of the year, and it became the first company to export BC battery cells [2][3]. - The total global shipment volume of the top five battery suppliers reached approximately 87.8 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of about 12.5% [2]. Module Segment Summary - The module segment saw more significant changes, with JinkoSolar maintaining its leading position and LONGi Green Energy in second place. JA Solar and Trina Solar are now tied for third [5][6]. - The total shipment volume of the top ten module suppliers was approximately 247.9 GW, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [7]. - The production of modules in the first half of the year reached 310 GW, a 14.4% increase compared to the previous year [9]. Market Trends and Observations - The market is witnessing a shift towards larger TOPCon battery cells, with the 210RN size accounting for about 31.4% of shipments, up from 8% in the previous year [3]. - Companies like Tongwei and Yida New Energy reported shipment increases of 30-40%, indicating rapid expansion in their module business [10]. - The industry is experiencing a transformation aimed at addressing long-standing issues of supply-demand mismatch and unhealthy price competition, with a focus on sustainable profitability rather than just market share [12][13]. Financial Performance - The financial performance of companies like Yongdian Dongci and Aiko Solar has been noteworthy, with Yongdian Dongci achieving a net profit of 960-1,050 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.6%-63.6% [11]. - Despite high shipment volumes, many companies are facing significant losses, with 31 A-share listed photovoltaic companies reporting a total net loss of 57.47 billion yuan in 2024 [12][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon rebounded from its low level. The main reasons were the continuous fermentation of anti - involution sentiment in China, the elimination of excess production capacity in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain, and the entry into a stage of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, which was beneficial to the industry's development prospects. Additionally, China's trade data in July was impressive, with minimal impact from tariffs. The supply side did not show significant expansion, while the demand side faced various challenges. It is expected that the component shipments in August will shrink significantly, and the industrial silicon spot market declined slightly. Technically, the futures price is expected to enter a volatile upward trend in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the industrial silicon主力 contract rose from 8,500 yuan/ton to 8,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47%. The prices of various spot products such as通氧 553,不通氧 553, 421, 3303, and有机硅 DMC decreased, while the price of多晶硅致密料 increased by 6.82%. The industrial silicon social inventory rose to 54.7 tons, an increase of 1.30% [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% (in US dollars). In the first seven months, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. High - tech product imports and exports increased by 8.4%, and the "new three" green and low - carbon products increased by 14.9% [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of August 8th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 83,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The overall furnace - opening rate in the three major producing areas rose slightly to 33.9%. The demand side faced challenges such as limited downstream acceptance of price increases by polysilicon enterprises, difficulty in covering costs in the silicon wafer market, high supply - side pressure in the photovoltaic cell market, and low downstream acceptance in the component market. It is expected that component shipments in August will shrink significantly [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of August 8th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 547,000 tons. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the inventory pressure of warehouse receipts decreased due to the continuous decline in domestic production [9]. Industry News - On August 1st, 2025, the US Department of Commerce launched a second anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset review investigation on crystalline silicon photovoltaic products imported from China and a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on products imported from Taiwan, China. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called on relevant units to provide opinions on the "Price Law Amendment Draft (Exposure Draft)". Guosheng Securities believes that in the context of anti - involution, the price of polysilicon is expected to return above the industry cost price, and attention should be paid to the price repair opportunities in the downstream industrial chain [11][12]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, and prices of related products over different time periods [14][17][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies in the electric power equipment and new energy sectors, including CATL, Keda, and others [4][5]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market shows strong growth, with several new players achieving record sales in July 2025, particularly Leap Motor, which delivered 50,129 units, marking a significant increase [2][10]. - Turkey's photovoltaic battery import prices have been raised significantly, from USD 85/kg to USD 170/kg, indicating a 100% increase, which will impact the supply chain dynamics [3][32]. - The report highlights the ongoing digitalization efforts within the State Grid, with a total of 1.75 billion yuan awarded in contracts for digital equipment [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In July 2025, several new energy vehicle manufacturers reported strong delivery numbers, with Leap Motor leading at 50,129 units, followed by Zeekr and Xpeng with 44,193 and 37,717 units respectively [2][10]. - BYD continues to dominate the market with 344,296 units delivered in July, totaling over 2.49 million units for the year [2][18]. New Energy Generation - Turkey's trade department announced a significant increase in the import reference price for photovoltaic batteries, which will take effect 60 days after the announcement, reflecting a major shift in the market [3][32]. - The report notes that despite Turkey's efforts to localize production, the current domestic battery capacity is insufficient, leading to continued reliance on Chinese imports [3][37]. Electric Power Equipment and Automation - The State Grid has publicly announced the results of its digital equipment bidding, with a total contract value of 1.75 billion yuan across various categories, including servers and network equipment [4][22]. - Key companies to watch in this sector include CATL, Keda, and others, which are expected to benefit from ongoing digitalization and infrastructure investments [4][22]. Market Performance - The electric power equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 1.94%, with the new energy vehicle index showing the highest growth at 4.71% [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in the new energy vehicle market, with increasing delivery volumes indicating a robust demand [2][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic factors: The China-US trade negotiation has been postponed. China's anti-involution and stable growth policies have significantly boosted the sentiment in the industrial product market. In July, China's manufacturing PMI decreased seasonally, and the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed. The Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing fiscal counter-cyclical adjustment, supporting traditional industry transformation and the growth of emerging industries, promoting consumption, and expanding domestic demand [3]. - Supply side: The operating rate in Xinjiang dropped below 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The supply side showed a passive contraction, with social inventory declining from a high level and warehouse receipt inventory decreasing due to the monthly decline in domestic production [3][56]. - Demand side: The spot price of polysilicon rebounded significantly, but a large increase in production volume was expected. Silicon wafers could not cover the high costs, but battery orders were good due to export tax rebates, driving consumption. However, battery prices had limited upward space due to the drag of centralized demand. Component markets had high quotes but low transactions because of the weak demand for domestic distributed projects. In traditional industries, silicone monomer enterprises were reluctant to lower prices, but the cost support in the future would weaken. The aluminum alloy production remained stable due to continuous orders from the automotive sector. Overall, industrial silicon was expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in August [3][57]. - Market outlook: The futures price of industrial silicon was expected to enter a pattern of volatile rebound [3][57]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 July Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Futures price**: In July 2025, the industrial silicon futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main 2509 contract fluctuated between 7705 - 10060 yuan/ton. The price center rebounded compared to the previous month, and the volatility increased. The anti-involution and stable growth policies boosted market sentiment, but the contraction of polysilicon production capacity might drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3. The operating rate in Xinjiang in July was around 50%, and the increase in the operating rate in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. As of the end of July, the number of open furnaces nationwide increased to 260. From the demand side, the polysilicon market mainly had historical order replenishment transactions, the silicon wafer market continued to raise prices but could not cover costs, the battery market had limited price increase space, and the component market had a situation of high quotes but low transactions. As of July 31, the main 2509 contract closed at 8760 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 8.7% [8]. - **Spot market**: In July, the total number of open furnaces of industrial silicon in China was 260, an increase of 45 compared to the previous month. The average production cost decreased by 1.64% month-on-month. The operating rate in Xinjiang decreased to around 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The social inventory decreased slightly to 53.5 tons. The spot market rebounded to above 10,000 yuan and then quickly declined. By the end of July, the prices of mainstream 553 grades rebounded, the price of 441 decreased, the price of 421 rebounded significantly, and the price of 3303 might be adjusted downward in the next month [9][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - The anti-involution and stable growth policies were clearly defined. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July proposed an anti-involution policy framework, aiming to address the imbalance between supply and demand in the macro - economy, especially in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic component, and e - commerce platform sectors. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to introduce stable growth plans for key industries such as automobiles, steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation. In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, providing support for the profit of large - scale industries [16][19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: In July, the operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang was around 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The output in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was stable. The total industrial silicon output in July was 33.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. As of July 28, the number of open furnaces nationwide increased to 260, and the overall operating rate increased to 32.7%. It was expected that the operating rate in August would remain at a low level of around 35%, and the output of mainstream grades of industrial silicon would be restricted by policies in the long - term [22][23]. - **Export**: From January to June this year, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 21.67 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. In June, the export volume was 6.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The export destinations were mainly Southeast Asian countries. It was expected that the export volume from July to August would remain stable at 6 - 7 tons [32]. - **Inventory**: By July 31, the social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 54 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1.4% month - on - month. The decrease in warehouse receipt inventory was mainly due to the monthly decline in domestic production. It was expected that the social inventory would continue to decline in August [35]. - **Demand**: - **Photovoltaic industry**: In July, the polysilicon output was 10.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.4%. The price of polysilicon increased significantly. The price of silicon wafers continued to rise but could not cover costs. The battery orders were good due to export tax rebates, but the price increase space was limited. The component market had high quotes but low transactions. It was expected that the overall demand for photovoltaic in August would decline significantly, and the new installed capacity in 2025 was expected to drop to around 250GW [37][38][39]. - **Silicone industry**: In July, the output of silicone DMC was 20.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. The average operating rate of silicone monomer enterprises increased to 72.1%. The spot price of DMC rebounded. The monomer enterprises were reluctant to lower prices, but the cost support in the future would weaken, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in August [40]. - **Aluminum alloy industry**: From January to June, the aluminum alloy output was 909.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In June, the output was 166.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. The production of aluminum rods in different regions varied, and the total production would continue to run stably. It was expected that the aluminum alloy output would decline slightly in August [42]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomic factors would continue to support the market. The supply side would remain in a passive contraction pattern, and the demand side would enter a slow - down cycle in August. Industrial silicon was expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price was expected to enter a pattern of volatile rebound [56][57].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, driven by AI and domestic substitution efforts [5][17] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a notable increase in the allocation of semiconductor stocks within the electronic sector, with a significant focus on storage and power components [2][5] - The report highlights the strong performance of key companies in the semiconductor space, particularly in the storage segment, where price increases are anticipated [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Q2 Semiconductor Holdings and Q3 Outlook - In Q2 2025, the A-share electronic industry allocation was 18.67%, maintaining the top position in the market, with a slight increase in the overweight ratio [2][14] - The semiconductor sector accounted for the highest proportion of holdings at 10.47% among various electronic components [2][25] 2. Q3 Downstream Industry Outlook - The report indicates stable growth in consumer electronics, with significant increases in the production of new energy vehicles and industrial applications [3][15] - In June 2025, China's smartphone production reached 108 million units, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase [3][30] - The production of new energy vehicles saw a notable rise, with 1.234 million units produced, marking an 18.8% increase [3][32] 3. Storage Sector Recommendations - Jiangbolong is highlighted as a key player in the storage sector, benefiting from both cyclical and growth factors, with expected price increases in NAND and DDR4 products [4][16] - The company is positioned to leverage domestic substitution in enterprise storage, projecting a 200% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025 [4][16] 4. Overall Market Trends - The semiconductor market is expected to see continued price increases in Q3 2025, particularly in the storage segment, with a focus on performance and efficiency improvements [5][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution and the resilience of key players in the semiconductor industry amid global supply chain challenges [5][17]