美联储降息已经落地，而在过去这几个月，市场一直在交易美联储降息的预期，降息预期也带动 了不少资产的上涨。 那过去这几个月，全球资产大类中，上涨幅度最大的资产是什么？ 答案可能出乎很多人的意料。 涨得最好的资产，不是某个国家的股市，也不是某个国家债券，也不是黄金。 而是 白银 。 截止到9月中旬，今年 白银的年内涨幅达到48%，涨幅超过了黄金。 因此， 白银市场的实物流通性强消耗更大，容易出现市场挤兑 ，价格波动也就会更大。 同时最高价格达到42.96美元/盎司，创下14年来的新高。 历史上，多次经济出现危机的时候，避险资产价格都会上涨。 所以，今年黄金和白银的价格能够上涨，并不令人奇怪。 但比较令人意外的是，今年白银上涨的幅度，超过了黄金的上涨幅度，这在过去的历史中并不多 见。 那为什么今年会出现白银上涨幅度高于黄金的情况？ 一方面，是因为 白银的市场极其容易出现挤兑。 相比黄金，白银的衍生品交易市场并没有那么发达。 黄金的衍生品交易非常多，很多人会交易加杠杆的纸黄金，甚至最近还开始出现数字黄金。 而且在衍生品多的同时， 黄金投资者中大部分都不是实物交易，而是纯粹的金融交易，金融流动 性强，但实物流通性差。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven narrative to one driven by earnings, with the market expected to face increased macro constraints in the fourth quarter of 2025 [4][8][63] - In the third quarter of 2025, the A-share market strengthened significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3882.78, reflecting a quarterly increase of 12.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 29.3% [15][4] - The TMT sector was a major contributor to the index's rise, with notable increases in electronic, communication, and media sectors, which rose by 47.6%, 48.6%, and 20.3% respectively [16][4] Group 2 - Domestic economic growth momentum has slowed, with GDP growth in the third quarter expected to be around 4.8%, influenced by factors such as declining export growth and adjustments in the real estate market [5][29] - The report anticipates that the policy support for economic growth will strengthen, with measures including loan interest subsidies and early issuance of local government debt limits [5][39] - A-share earnings are stabilizing, with overall earnings growth expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth in 2025, supported by enhanced policy measures and resilient exports [7][41] Group 3 - The influx of incremental capital is expected to continue supporting the A-share market, driven by improved investor confidence and favorable economic conditions [48][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is set to provide new guidance for the capital market, focusing on industrial development, economic structure adjustments, and fiscal reforms [53][56] - The report suggests that investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities, particularly those related to the "15th Five-Year Plan," core asset value reassessment, and various thematic opportunities [66][66]

根据安泰科价格统计，硅片价格较节前暂无明显变化。其中， N 型 G10L 单晶硅片 (182*183.75mm/130 μ m) 成交均价为 1.32 元 / 片； N 型 G12R 单晶硅片 (182*210mm/130 μ m) 成交均价为 1.40 元 / 片； N 型 G12 单晶硅片 (210*210 mm/130 μ m) 成交均价为 1.68 元 / 片，各型号硅片价格与节前持平。 " -- "表示本周P型硅片未成交 本周是节后第一周，市场成交还未大规模启动，市场持稳运行。需求端： 8 月单月光伏 新增装机规模为 7.36GW ，环比下降 36.77% ，国内终端需求不及预期，各组件企业选择优 先消耗前期库存。供应端： 9 月硅片产出量约为 57.98GW ，环比增加 3.35% ， 与下游电 池需求基本匹配。 同时，多晶硅价格持续上行，带动硅片生产成本增加，对于市场价格有一 定支撑。因此，虽然需求不及预期，但在供给端加强自律、相关政策预期和成本增加的支撑 下，企业挺价意愿较强，硅片价格相对稳定。据调研了解，本周行业整体开工率较节前暂无 变化，其中两家一线企业开工率分别为 54% 和 52% ， ...

Group 1: Tibet's Development Initiatives - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Tibet has increased investment to strengthen ecological security and promote the construction of a natural protection system centered on national parks, integrating the protection and management of various natural resources [3] - By August 2025, Tibet's installed power capacity will exceed 32.5 million kilowatts, with over 99% of the power generated from clean energy sources [3] Group 2: Tourism and Cultural Industry Growth in Tibet - Tibet plans to develop international ecological tourism zones in Lhasa and Linzhi, with an expected 72 million tourists and a cultural industry output value of 12 billion yuan by 2025 [5] Group 3: Shaanxi's Technological Advancements - Shaanxi has implemented reforms to enhance the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, resulting in 110,000 achievements being recorded and 46,000 being transferred and transformed, with a technical contract transaction volume exceeding 480 billion yuan [7] Group 4: Industrial Innovation in Shaanxi - Shaanxi is rapidly constructing a modern industrial system represented by trillion-yuan industry clusters, with global leadership in titanium processing, monocrystalline silicon production, and heavy-duty truck transmissions [9] - The province's photovoltaic cell conversion efficiency has repeatedly broken world records, and the annual production of new energy vehicles is nearly 1.2 million [9]

投洽会、服贸会接连召开，又有英国新任商贸大臣访华、重启中英七年间首次贸易对话……今年9 月，"国际贸易"成为中国当之无愧的关键词。 "对于中国未来对外投资、对外经济技术合作，我们是充满了信心，"近日，中国对外承包工程商会会长 房秋晨接受中新网"中外对话"栏目采访时表示。 房秋晨指出，商会主要牵头发布的《中国企业对外投资活跃度指数》显示，中国企业在海外投资的需求 和意愿保持在较高水平，同时投资重点正逐步从传统行业向新兴领域转型。 他指出，以基础设施为例，光伏电池、电动汽车等新能源领域正日益成为新的投资热点。与此同时，伴 随中国技术和装备的加快"出海"，中国文化、中国标准和中国方案也在海外获得更多关注与认可。(林 卓玮 巩微微） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The lithium battery supply chain is entering a peak season, driven by strong demand for electric vehicles and the upcoming sales season, with expectations for continued production increases in the battery sector [1][3]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing price increases in the supply chain, although the sustainability of these price hikes remains uncertain due to weak installation figures in August [1][3]. - The hydrogen energy sector is seeing developments with integrated projects announced by major companies, indicating a growing focus on green hydrogen and its applications [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electric equipment and new energy sector rose by 3.86% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [11]. - Within the sector, power generation equipment saw the largest increase at 10.50%, followed by wind power at 7.40% and photovoltaic at 5.62% [14]. Key Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to optimize tax incentives for new energy vehicles, which is expected to boost sales [3]. - In August, the EU saw a 5.3% increase in new car registrations, totaling 677,786 vehicles [3]. - China's lithium-ion battery exports reached 3 billion units in the first eight months, a year-on-year increase of 18.66%, with export value rising by 25.79% to $48.296 billion [3][27]. Company Developments - Huaguang Huaneng signed a $1.6 billion overseas gas turbine combined cycle power plant project [28]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 21% stake in Qicheng Mining for $1.456 billion [28]. - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary signed a supply agreement for at least 800,000 tons of electrolyte with Ruipulan Jun [28]. Price Observations - Lithium battery prices remain stable, with significant demand for battery materials [15]. - Photovoltaic material prices are under pressure, with silicon prices stabilizing around 55 RMB per kg for leading manufacturers [16][17]. - The price of photovoltaic modules has seen slight increases, with delivery prices for concentrated projects around 0.63-0.69 RMB per watt [20].

工业硅周报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 企业利润修复，工业硅区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅区间震荡，主因国内工业品市场情绪总体降 温，多晶硅期货高位回落但下方支撑明细，中国工业企业 利润增速同比大幅回升，反内卷政策效应进入兑现期。供 应来看，新疆地区开工率维持69%，川滇地区丰水期产量 持续回落，内蒙和甘肃新投产释放有限，供应端总体平稳； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅报价重心再度上移，但硅企面临较 大的库存压力预计10月减产力度或仍不及预期；硅片后续 挺价空间有限市场情绪转弱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in silver prices, which have outperformed gold this year, driven by both investment demand and industrial usage, particularly in renewable energy sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has seen a year-to-date increase of 48% as of mid-September, surpassing gold's performance, with a peak price of $42.96 per ounce, the highest in 14 years [1]. - The silver market is characterized by a strong physical trading volume compared to gold, making it more susceptible to market squeezes and price volatility [2]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in photovoltaic cells and electric vehicles, is expected to surge, with projections indicating over 600 GW of new solar installations by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The current economic environment is marked by fears of a debt-driven collapse, with parallels drawn to historical instances of currency devaluation in countries like Argentina and Turkey [3][4]. - The article posits that the global economy is transitioning away from a dollar-dominated system, with gold and silver serving as alternative hard currencies during this shift [4]. - Predictions suggest that silver prices could rise to over $60 per ounce in the coming years, particularly as the Federal Reserve continues its easing policies [2][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article advocates for the inclusion of gold and silver in investment portfolios as a hedge against potential economic downturns, emphasizing their role as hard currencies during periods of financial instability [5]. - It suggests that as the Federal Reserve accelerates rate cuts, the price gap between gold and silver may widen further, presenting a compelling investment opportunity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The control of Yijing Photovoltaic (亿晶光电) has changed due to the complete auction and transfer of shares held by its former major shareholder, Weizhi Energy (唯之能源), resulting in the company having no controlling shareholder or actual controller [1] Group 1: Shareholder and Control Changes - Weizhi Energy has completely divested its 150 million shares in Yijing Photovoltaic, which were auctioned in three batches, each consisting of 50 million shares, and acquired by three individual investors [1] - The company currently lacks a controlling shareholder or actual controller, as the board of directors does not have a majority controlled by any single shareholder [1] - The change in equity structure is expected to have a significant impact on the company's governance [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - In 2024, Yijing Photovoltaic reported a revenue of 3.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.07%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.09 billion yuan, a staggering decline of 3192.48% [3] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.181 billion yuan, down 46.05% year-on-year, with a net loss of 153 million yuan, although this was an improvement compared to a loss of 470 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The company plans to implement cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures across various operational aspects to enhance competitiveness and address ongoing financial challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The control of Yijing Photovoltaic has changed due to the disposal of shares by its major shareholder, Shenzhen Weizhi Energy, which no longer holds any shares in the company, leading to significant impacts on the company's governance and ownership structure [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder and Control Changes - Shenzhen Weizhi Energy has disposed of its 150 million shares in Yijing Photovoltaic through a public auction, resulting in a change of control [1]. - The company currently has no controlling shareholder or actual controller, as the board of directors lacks a majority from any single shareholder [1][2]. - The board's composition includes members from diverse backgrounds, which raises questions about decision-making effectiveness [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yijing Photovoltaic reported a revenue of 3.478 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 57.07% year-on-year, and a net loss of 2.09 billion yuan, down 3192.48% year-on-year [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.181 billion yuan, a decline of 46.05% year-on-year, with a net loss of 153 million yuan, although this was an improvement compared to a loss of 470 million yuan in the same period the previous year [3]. - The company plans to implement cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures across various operational areas to enhance competitiveness [3].