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智利各大行会预计2026年智利经济增长率在2%至2.5%间
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-09-25 17:47
Economic Growth Outlook - Chilean banks have a conservative outlook for economic growth in 2026, predicting GDP growth rates between 2% and 2.5% [1] - The main challenge for 2026 is the recovery of employment, with high informal employment rates and significant disparities in participation among specific groups [1] Industrial Performance - The president of the Chilean Manufacturing Association (SOFOFA) believes industrial performance in 2026 may be uneven due to a lack of clear rules, legal certainty, and investment incentives [1] - The construction industry is expected to recover, but the real estate sector lags behind infrastructure projects driven by large private mining and energy initiatives [1] Employment and Unemployment - The president of the Chilean Banking and Financial Institutions Association (ABIF) forecasts an unemployment rate of 8.7% for 2026, with bank performance similar to 2025 [1] - Total bank loans are expected to grow only by 2%-3%, constrained by low investment and a weak labor market affecting consumer loans [1] Retail and Wholesale Trade - The president of the National Chamber of Commerce, Services, and Tourism (CNC) anticipates retail sales growth of 4.5% to 5.5% in 2025, with limited expansion in 2026 [1] - Wholesale trade may benefit from investment dynamics and inventory replenishment, while retail growth could slow down [1] Mining Sector - The president of the National Mining Association (SONAMI) expects copper production to stagnate at around 5.4 million tons per year, with economic contributions from operational continuity rather than physical expansion [1] - Challenges include declining ore grades, increased mining depth, capacity limitations, and regulatory delays [1] Agricultural Sector - The president of the National Agricultural Association (SNA) notes that agricultural growth has been 3.5 times that of the overall economy in the past two years [1] - Cherry production will remain crucial for the 2025-2026 season, with challenges in optimizing irrigation infrastructure and improving rural security [1]