欧元兑美元在日线图上逼近1.1750附近的趋势线阻力，此处可能吸引空头入场，目标看向1.1575支撑 位。若成功突破，则可能开启新一轮上涨。在4小时图上，上行动能有所减弱，价格或在1.1600支撑位 与趋势线之间盘整。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间10:45分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1632，涨幅0.15%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1615。欧元区7月CPI数据与初值一致，整 体通胀率同比维持在2.0%，符合预期。 核心通胀环比下降0.2%，同比涨幅为2.3%，显示通胀粘性并未出现明显加速迹象。这一数据在一定程 度上缓解了市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧，也使得投资者对欧洲央行短期内进一步采取紧缩政策的预期维 持在相对温和的水平。欧洲央行行长拉加德稍早在日内瓦发表讲话，她指出，尽管近期达成的多项经贸 协议有助于稳定外部环境，但并未完全消除全球经济面临的不确定性。与此同时，她对今年第四季度的 经济增长预期作出了更为谨慎的判断，暗示欧元区可能面临一定的下行压力。不过，拉加德也同时肯 定，今年以来欧元区经济在面对多重冲击时表现出一定的韧性。总体来看，拉加德的发言姿态中 ...

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Japanese Cabinet Office revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's exports [2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. is expected to have a direct effect, while reduced exports from other countries to the U.S. will indirectly affect Japan's exports of intermediate goods [2]

Group 1 - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading, driven by strong performances in the information technology, healthcare, and financial sectors [1][2] - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve its economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the International Monetary Fund [2][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with processed food prices rising by 4.1% and seafood prices increasing by 7.3%, while agricultural product prices saw a slight decline of 0.1% [2][3] Group 2 - The average retail price of watermelon reached 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), marking a 33.7% increase from the previous month and a 20.7% rise compared to the same period last year, attributed to extreme heat and increased demand [5][6] - Other agricultural products, such as tomatoes and cabbages, also saw significant price increases, with tomatoes rising nearly 70% month-on-month and cabbages exceeding 6,000 KRW (32 RMB) per head, reflecting the impact of severe weather conditions [5][6] - The Bank of Korea reported an increase in foreign exchange reserves, which rose by 1.13 billion USD to 411.33 billion USD by the end of July, following a decline to a five-year low in May [4][3]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecasts for Latin America, projecting a growth of 2.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, indicating a slight improvement compared to previous estimates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Growth Projections - Latin America's economic growth is expected to reach 2.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from April's forecast, and 2.4% in 2026 [1] - Brazil's growth is projected at 2.3% for 2025, up by 0.3 percentage points, and 2.1% for 2026, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - Mexico is expected to grow by 0.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, and maintain a growth of 1.4% in 2026 [1] - Argentina's growth forecast remains at 5.5% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, unchanged from April [1] Comparative Performance - Despite the upward revision, Latin America's growth continues to lag behind other emerging markets and developing countries, which are projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025 and 4% in 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, expecting a growth of 3.2% this year, primarily due to better-than-expected output from Saudi Arabia and Egypt [2] - The IMF predicts Saudi Arabia's economic growth will reach 3.6% this year and has adjusted Egypt's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 3.8% to 4.0% [2] - The improvement in the economic outlook is attributed to more supportive financial conditions in the region, with a decrease in main debt spreads and an increase in international bond issuances [2] Economic Forecasts - The MENA region's economic growth is expected to remain at 3.4% in 2026 [2] - Egypt's economic growth forecast for 2026 has been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1%, mainly due to delays in implementing structural reform agendas [2] - The IMF anticipates a decline in inflation rates in the coming months and years, despite currently high regional inflation [2] Sector Performance - Non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications sectors in Egypt have shown better-than-expected output, contributing to the upward revision of its economic growth forecast [2]

【导读】日本央行如期维持利率不变，上调今年通胀和经济增长预期 7月31日，日本央行公布利率决议，决定维持利率在0.5%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。 日本央行决议前，美元兑日元一度逼近150关口，日内跌0.45%。日本央行维持利率不变后，美元兑日元短线走高，现报148.90。 日本央行同时上调了核心CPI预期。该央行预计，潜在消费者通胀率可能在2025财年到2027年预测期的下半年达到与2%目标基本一致的水平。 2025~2027财年核心CPI预期中值分别为2.7%、1.8%和2.0%，此前预期分别为2.2%、1.7%和1.9%。 与此同时，日本央行还上调了今年的经济增长预期，将2025财年GDP同比增长预期从之前的0.5%调整为0.6%。 | Date of MPM | | Release Schedule | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Outlook Report | Summary of | MPM Minutes | | | (The Bank's View) | Opinions | | | Jan. 22 (Thurs.), 23 (Fri.) ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its inflation and economic growth forecasts for the year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ has kept the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, which was anticipated by the market [2][4]. - Following the decision, the USD/JPY exchange rate saw a short-term increase, reported at 148.90 [4]. Inflation Forecast - The BOJ has revised its core Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts upward, expecting potential consumer inflation to align with the 2% target in the latter half of the fiscal years 2025 to 2027. The new median core CPI forecasts for these years are 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, compared to previous forecasts of 2.2%, 1.7%, and 1.9% [4]. Economic Growth Outlook - The BOJ has also increased its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025, adjusting the GDP growth expectation from 0.5% to 0.6% [4]. Economic Risks - The BOJ noted that the economic outlook carries downside risks, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies. Despite a mild recovery in the Japanese economy, some weaknesses persist [5]. - Recent progress in trade agreements between Japan and the U.S. is highlighted, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on certain Japanese imports [5]. Future Rate Hikes - There is a consensus among various institutions that a rate hike in October is likely, with HSBC predicting a 25 basis point increase to 0.75% [6]. - Other institutions, such as the Netherlands International and Mizuho Bank, also view October as a potential time for a rate hike, with Mizuho suggesting it could be the last hike of the year [7]. - The BOJ Governor is scheduled to hold a press conference to explain the rate decision, indicating ongoing communication regarding monetary policy [7].

金十数据7月30日讯，瑞银经济学家在一份报告中说，英国央行可能会上调英国2025年的通胀和经济增 长预期。他们说，鉴于6月份通胀数据高于预期，英国央行可能会将其对2025年英国通胀的预期从3.3% 略微上调至3.5%。瑞银表示，在一季度GDP增长高于预期之后，增长预测也可能会被略微上调。"与英 国央行5月份的假设相比，我们预计能源价格和有效英镑汇率将被上调，而政策利率假设可能基本保持 不变。" 瑞银：英国央行可能在8月会议上上调通胀和经济增长预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% respectively, which is an upward adjustment of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in major economies [1] - The most significant upward adjustment in growth forecasts was for China, with the IMF raising its expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points compared to the April forecast [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] - The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1] - The strong export performance of China, particularly to regions outside the U.S., has offset the decline in exports to the U.S., contributing to the economic growth [1] - Fiscal policies supporting consumption have also played a role in driving China's economic growth [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - Central banks are advised to carefully calibrate monetary policies based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]

张坤有句名言：一个基金经理在从业历史上，至少应该敢于对抗市场两三次。 2025年2季度，或许是他再次"对抗"市场的时候。 当季度，市场上演"V"型反转，各板块差距迅速拉大。从风格指数看，全季度唯有金融股和港股"二枝独秀"，其余宽基和行业指数多数表现平平。 以下文章来源于资本深潜号 ，作者资本深潜号 资本深潜号 . 专注资本背后的硬核故事 同期，张坤管理的四个基金中有三个基金（易方达优质企业、易方达蓝筹、易方达优质精选）出现阶段性落后基准7.5个百分点以上的情况，唯有主投境外的易 方达亚洲精选取得明显收益，并与基准基本"打平"。 这样的关键时刻，张坤会做何应对？ 答案是—— 再次"旗帜鲜明"的坚持己见，并与市场共识"拉开距离"。 当季度，张坤至少从三个层面坚持了自己的看法（根据季报显示）。 在宏观经济层面 ，张坤认为，市场（投资者）将近两年中国经济的情况线性外推，导致长期国债利率维持在与经济潜力不匹配的水平。对此张坤明确表 示："我们并不认同"。 在上市公司业绩层面， 张坤认为，我国人均 GDP 仍然是发展中国家水平，未来只要充分发挥市场经济的力量和个体的主观能动性，叠加科技进步，有望带动 经济增长并反映到优质 ...