1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and slightly warming demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of rising supply and flat demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,180 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,027 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 95 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina is - 47 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 292,404 hands, down 14,921 hands; the main contract positions of alumina are 268,233 hands, down 5,701 hands [2] - LME aluminum canceled warrants are 163,575 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of alumina is 430,237 tons, up 27,469 tons [2] - The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,419.5 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 436,625 tons, down 3,700 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum are - 56,702 hands, up 7,453 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.07, down 0.3 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 23,000 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 50,319 tons, down 1,109 tons [2] - The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the inventory of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 416,425 tons, up 21,927 tons [2] - The positions of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy are 5,075 hands, down 192 hands; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,731 tons, down 4,121 tons [2] - The warrants of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up 1,020 tons to 393,226 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,490 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 25,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 2,000 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 310 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [2] - The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumao is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is 132.38 US dollars/ton, up 127 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is - 347 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.1%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - Alumina production is 8.0108 million tons, down 127,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of alumina is 83%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 7.3129 million tons, up 253,300 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 289,000 tons, up 23,200 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,950 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 18,300 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; China's export volume of aluminum scrap is 70.8 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 150,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the import volume of alumina is 227,800 tons, down 4,600 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 204,900 tons, up 313,600 tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 1.295 million tons, up 33,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 45.402 million tons, unchanged [2] - The export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.3 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum is 98.93%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The output of aluminum products is 6.1356 million tons, up 204,600 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 430,000 tons, down 110,000 tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 270,800 tons, down 394,100 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 25,500 tons, down 5,100 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 1.26 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The output of aluminum alloy is 1.825 million tons, unchanged [2] - The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 20 days is 24.33%, up 2.05 percentage points; the historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 40 days is 31.86%, up 0.57 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 18.33%, down 0.0439; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.68, up 0.0037 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. One member opposes and advocates a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2] - The Federal Reserve raises inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denies the US economy is in stagflation [2] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs says China and the US will continue to communicate on President Trump's visit to China [2] - The Federal Reserve raises the core PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028, and also raises the GDP growth rate expectations [2] - The US PPI in February rises 0.7% month - on - month and 3.4% year - on - year, exceeding expectations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias in March, and attention should be paid to the strength of demand. If demand recovery falls short of expectations, prices may decline again. Additionally, potential impacts from the Iran situation should be monitored [6]. - The strategy of going long on rebar and short on hot-rolled coils can be considered, with a stop-profit target of over 200 points [5]. - For single-sided trading, a bullish approach can be attempted with appropriate stop-loss settings [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Review 1.2 Market Review - In February 2026, rebar prices fluctuated downward with a small range, reaching a maximum of 3139 and a minimum of 3005 [10]. - In February, iron ore prices trended downward. The main iron ore contract reached a maximum of 797.0 and a minimum of 736.0 [12][13]. Part 2: Current Analysis 2.1 Macro Logic - In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.0%. The recent government work report set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5% [17]. - In the first quarter of 2026, advance issuance of special bonds and implementation of "two new" subsidies (equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in) took place. Structural monetary tools were used to cut interest rates and increase new re-lending quotas to support private and innovative enterprises. Domestic demand was restored, with consumption moderately recovering and infrastructure investment accelerating, but the real estate sector was still in a bottoming - out phase. External demand remained resilient, with exports maintaining positive growth on a high base, but the Iran situation might affect exports and drag down the first - quarter economic growth [17]. 2.2 Supply - Demand Logic - **Real Estate**: Real estate is the core demand source for construction steel, accounting for over 60% of construction steel demand and 25% - 30% of the country's total steel demand, and its proportion in total steel demand is decreasing. Since 2021, real estate investment and other indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have entered a downward cycle. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 20.4%, the year - on - year growth rate of construction area was - 10.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 18.1%. The leading indicator, land transaction area, decreased by 10.4% year - on - year, indicating a continued decline in steel demand for real estate new construction and main construction in 2026 - 2027 [21][24]. - **Special Bonds**: In 2025, the total issuance of special bonds reached a record high of about 7.68 trillion yuan, including about 4.59 trillion yuan in new special bonds and about 3.09 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds. Special bonds were mainly invested in infrastructure, which directly drove the demand for construction steel. In 2026, about 4.6 trillion yuan in new special bonds are expected, and the advance issuance and disbursement of special bonds in the first quarter will provide funds for demand recovery in March [27][31]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: In 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, the first negative growth in recent years, showing a quarterly slowdown. In 2026, with the support of fiscal policies, the disbursement of special bond funds in March will drive the start of steel - using projects and may be the core driving force for a rebound [31]. - **Manufacturing**: In 2025, national manufacturing investment increased by 0.6% year - on - year, a significant decline from 2024, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of steel demand in machinery, equipment, and home appliances. In 2026, the automotive industry showed structural differentiation, with production expected to rebound in March. The shipbuilding industry maintained high - level prosperity, and the output of excavators and home appliances showed seasonal fluctuations [35][36][37]. - **Steel Exports**: In January 2026, China's steel exports decreased significantly. In February, exports continued to decline, and in March, exports are expected to recover but with limited strength. The Iran situation has a significant indirect impact on steel exports [40]. - **Steel Production**: In 2025, China's crude steel production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In February 2026, steel production decreased significantly, and in March, it is expected to rebound significantly but may be restricted by various factors [41]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: In 2025, China's iron ore imports were 1.259 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In March 2026, iron ore supply is expected to remain at a high level, and port inventories reached a two - year high in February [46]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Production**: In 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In February, the operating rate of northern mines declined, and in March, it is expected to gradually recover, but the production increase is limited [50].

Core Viewpoint - The government work report outlines the main expected targets for development in 2026, emphasizing economic growth and employment stability [1] Economic Growth - The target for economic growth is set at 4.5% to 5%, with efforts to achieve better results in practice [1] Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is aimed to be around 5.5% [1] - The goal is to create over 12 million new urban jobs [1] Consumer Prices - The expected increase in consumer prices is around 2% [1] Income and Economic Growth - Resident income growth is expected to synchronize with economic growth [1] International Balance - The international balance of payments is projected to be basically balanced [1] Agricultural Production - The target for grain production is approximately 1.4 trillion jin [1] Carbon Emissions - A reduction of about 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP is anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea maintains the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth and the need to ensure financial stability amid real estate market fluctuations and currency depreciation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Bank of Korea has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [5]. - Since October 2024, the Bank has cumulatively lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points from 3.5% to the current level to promote economic growth, maintaining this rate since May 2025 [5]. Group 2: Economic Growth Forecast - The Bank of Korea has raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast of 1.8% made in November last year, driven by strong exports and a recovery in private consumption [2][6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has maintained its policy interest rate for the sixth consecutive meeting while raising its growth and inflation forecasts for the year due to strong demand for chip exports, reducing the need for economic support [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.50%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - A survey of 25 analysts indicated that 21 anticipated this decision, with most expecting the rate to remain unchanged until the end of the year [1][2] - Some analysts predict a potential interest rate hike in 2027 [1][2] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Bank of Korea has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.0%, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8% made in November [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a mild upward trend, primarily driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, alongside a generally strong USD environment [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are cooling, with the January meeting minutes reinforcing a "wait and see" approach, focusing on bringing inflation back to 2% [1] - The market anticipates a low probability of rate cuts in March, with expectations for rates to remain in the 3.50% to 3.75% range [1] - In contrast, the Bank of Canada has cut rates four times in 2025 by a total of 100 basis points, maintaining the key rate at 2.25% and signaling a long-term hold unless significant changes occur in the economic outlook [1][2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The overall strength of the USD, reflected in a 0.14% increase in the USD index to 97.844, supports the USD/CAD exchange rate [2] - The Bank of Canada has lowered its GDP growth forecasts, predicting a growth rate of 1.2% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, indicating a weak economic outlook that diminishes support for the CAD [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD exchange rate is showing a mild upward trend, with recent price action rebounding from mid-February lows and finding support around 1.3690 [2] - If the exchange rate can maintain above the 1.3690 support level, it may test previous highs around 1.3724, with resistance concentrated between 1.3705 and 1.3724 [2] - The future trajectory of the USD/CAD exchange rate will depend on Federal Reserve policy decisions and Canadian economic data performance [2]

Group 1 - Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council has raised the 2026 economic growth forecast to a range of 1.5%-2.5%, up from the previous estimate of 1.2%-2.2% [1][2] - The GDP growth for the fourth quarter (October-December) is reported at 2.5% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg's median estimate of 1.3% and the previous quarter's growth of 1.2% [1][2] - The quarterly growth rate of 1.9% is the largest increase in four years, surpassing the forecast of 0.6% [1] Group 2 - The overall economic growth rate for the year is recorded at 2.4%, which supports the government's optimistic outlook [2] - Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's party achieved better-than-expected results in the elections and has formed a coalition government, focusing on economic issues and cost of living pressures [2]

Economic Growth Forecast - Thailand's economy is projected to grow by 2.0% this year, consistent with previous expectations [1] - The growth rate is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024 [1] Export Performance - Exports are anticipated to increase by 1.0% this year, a revision from an earlier forecast of a 1.5% decline [1] Currency and Inflation - The Thai Baht has appreciated approximately 1.4% against the US dollar this year, with a projected increase of 9% by 2025, impacting export and tourism competitiveness [1] - Overall inflation rate for this year is forecasted at 0.3%, revised down from 0.5% [1] Tourism Outlook - The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand is expected to reach 35.5 million this year, consistent with prior estimates, compared to 32.9 million last year [1] Trade Tariffs - The US imposes a 19% tariff on goods imported from Thailand, aligning with practices in other regional countries, but uncertainties remain regarding tariffs on goods transiting through Thailand from third countries [2]

Core Insights - The UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research has raised the economic growth forecast for the UK from 1.2% to 1.4% for 2026, indicating that the UK economy is approaching its closest state to normal in nearly a decade [1] - The Bank of England is expected to lower its key interest rates twice this year to a "neutral" level of 3.25% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The South African Reserve Bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 6.75% and the main lending rate at 10.25%, reflecting a cautious approach to observe inflation expectations and potential price pressures in food and electricity sectors [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision to keep interest rates unchanged aims to monitor whether inflation expectations will decline further [1] - There is a division within the Monetary Policy Committee, with 4 members supporting the current rate and 2 members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Forecasts - The central bank anticipates that December 2025 may mark a peak in inflation, with expectations for gradual easing thereafter [1] - Current data shows that the overall inflation rate in South Africa rose to 3.6% in December 2025, slightly up from November, exceeding the central bank's target of 3% [1] - The Reserve Bank has adjusted its inflation forecasts, lowering the average inflation expectation for 2026 from 3.5% to 3.3%, while raising the 2027 expectation from 3.1% to 3.2% [1] - Economic growth expectations remain unchanged, with forecasts of 1.4% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027 [1] Group 3: Currency Performance and Upcoming Events - The South African Rand has appreciated over 8% since the last monetary policy meeting in November 2025, outperforming many emerging market currencies [1] - The national budget is set to be released in February, with market attention on whether government spending aligns with the low inflation target [1]