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美联储巴尔金:就业市场现已达到平衡,月新增就业岗位约在8万至10万之间
news flash· 2025-06-26 13:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the employment market has reached a balance, with monthly job additions estimated to be between 80,000 to 100,000 [1]
第一创业晨会纪要-20250619
Macroeconomic Group - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, marking a pause in the rate cut cycle that began in September of the previous year, aligning with market expectations [3] - The FOMC's statement was revised to indicate that uncertainty has diminished but remains high, and it reiterated that net export fluctuations affect data while the economy continues to expand steadily [3] - The dot plot indicates that the median FOMC members expect two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, with the median rate forecast for 2025 at 3.9% [4][5] Industry Comprehensive Group - The price of DDR4 memory products has surged nearly 100% since January 2025, with current prices exceeding the June 2024 peak, while DDR5 prices have also increased significantly [9] - The rapid price increase in the storage market has led to substantial growth in the performance of domestic storage module manufacturers and distributors, particularly benefiting companies with high inventory levels such as Jiangbolong and Demingli [9] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Powin, a major battery storage system integrator in the U.S., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, affecting several Chinese companies, including CATL and Qingdao CIMC Puwei [11] - The bankruptcy was attributed to soaring tariff costs and a weak business model lacking vertical integration, leading to significant debt risks for Chinese firms [11] - The U.S. energy storage market is expected to experience a short-term freeze, with Fluence reducing its annual revenue guidance by 27% [11] Consumption Group - The combined GMV of beauty products on Tmall and Douyin reached 29.96 billion yuan in May 2025, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a notable divergence in performance between high-end and mass-market brands [14] - High-end domestic brands like Mao Ge Ping and Ke Li Jin saw significant sales growth, while mass-market brands like Proya and Winona faced declines [15] - The beauty consumption trend is shifting towards high-end, efficacy-driven products, with Douyin emerging as a new growth engine for high-end brands [15]
非农数据超预期 美联储或延至7月降息
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-07 03:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. job market remains stable despite the impact of tariffs, with April adding 177,000 jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, suggesting no immediate need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain short-term borrowing costs due to strong employment data and inflation above the 2% target, while monitoring the effects of tariffs on prices and economic growth [1] - Traders anticipate that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts until July, shifting from earlier expectations of a potential cut in June [1] Group 2 - Technical indicators for the U.S. dollar index show a weak short-term momentum, with MACD values indicating a bearish market but not at extreme levels [2] - The RSI reading is at 36.96, indicating a neutral to weak position, while the CCI value of -59.90 also suggests a bearish sentiment without reaching extreme conditions [2] - Bollinger Bands indicate the middle band at 101.3881, with the upper band at 105.7966 and the lower band at 96.9796, reflecting the current market volatility [2]